551
FXUS64 KLUB 190455
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH
TERMINALS. A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION EXISTS THROUGH
12Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS LOW AT BEST. CDS HAS
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY CONVECTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. CIN IS ON THE RISE
DUE TO WARMING AT THE MID LEVELS FORMING A PRETTY STOUT CAP...WHICH
IS EVIDENT ON THE AMA 00Z SOUNDING...AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
COMING TO AN END. THE BEST CHANCE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WILL BE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST KS.
THESE STORMS HOWEVER HAVE YET TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND MOVEMENT IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LIMITED RECOVERY OF THE AIRMASS WAS CONTINUING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...BUT
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREA WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THOUGH WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THIS FEATURE. THUNDERSTORMS WERE BREAKING OUT ALONG THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE BUT HAD NOT YET MANEUVERED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WERE
NOT SHOWING MUCH MOTIVATION TO MOVE SOUTH EITHER. CAPES HAVE
IMPROVED HOWEVER TO THE MID AND UPPER ONE THOUSAND JOULES PER
KILOGRAM RANGE WHILE OVERCOMING BULK OF INHIBITION. HOWEVER THE MID
LEVEL CAP ALSO SEEMS TO BE PLAYING A ROLE IN HOLDING ACTIVITY AT BAY
TO THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL DEVELOP IMPROVED LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PROVIDING
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO FEED ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
ATTEMPT TO HEAD OUR WAY. WE WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FAVORING MAINLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
COMBINED SHEAR AND CAPE POINT STILL TO POINT TO CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AS WE HAVE BEEN INDICATING ALREADY. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD
ALSO HAVE OPPORTUNITY TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE OPTED FOR MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PREPARE A BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TIGHTEN SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH BETTER
CONVECTIVE ENERGY SO ADDED A LOW MENTION FOR NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY TYPICAL TOASTY THOUGH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MID/LATE JUNE TEMPERATURES. THESE WARM
READINGS WILL BE COURTESY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL
RESIDE ON THE FRINGE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE NORTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
LINGERING AS SFC TROUGHING IS ESTABLISHED AND MAINTAINED IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LOCALLY...THOUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC TROUGHING AND WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BENDING OVER...THEY STAND
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS VISITING THERE.
HENCE...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN COULD
HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWESTERN SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CANADA...BUT WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
LINGERS NEARBY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD FOR NOW. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK
WESTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD LIKELY SQUASH ANY LOW
THUNDER CHANCES IN THE CWA IF THIS OCCURS...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF
DOES SHOW A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE OFFERING PERHAPS A LITTLE
HOPE. REGARDLESS...THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 62 94 64 94 / 30 40 20 20 20
TULIA 85 65 93 68 95 / 20 40 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 86 66 93 69 95 / 20 30 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 87 67 95 71 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
LUBBOCK 87 68 95 71 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 89 69 95 70 97 / 20 20 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 87 69 96 69 97 / 20 20 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 89 69 93 70 98 / 20 30 20 20 10
SPUR 88 69 94 70 97 / 20 20 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 88 70 96 72 99 / 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/31/51
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