Area Forecast Discussion
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517
FXUS64 KLUB 061502 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
902 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
THE METMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED SUSPICIOUSLY LOW ON THE MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO THE NAM
SHOWING A SNOW DEPTH OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH IS NOT AS
NEARLY AS EXTENSIVE AS THE MODEL WANTS TO BELIEVE. THESE
SUSPICIONS WERE CONFIRMED WHEN THE 12Z METMOS CAME IN 9-10 DEGREES
WARMER AT SOME LOCATIONS THAN THE 00Z GUIDANCE.
FURTHERMORE...GIVEN YESTERDAYS TERRIBLE METMOS GUIDANCE AND THE
MUCH BETTER MAVMOS...HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO THE 00Z MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WX EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
BACK TO THE SW LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS COURTESY
OF A CLOSED UA LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA OF CALI THAT IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ONLY
WX FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE IS INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE
AT THE SFC...SFC RIDGING CENTERED EAST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION...WHILST WEAK SFC LEE TROUGHING
PROMOTES THE LIGHT SRLY WINDS THIS MORNING TO VEER TO THE SW BY THIS
AFTN /AOA 10 MPH/. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS COUPLED WITH A
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 50S. SFC
WINDS VEERING FURTHER TO THE W-SW BY TONIGHT WHILE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ON THE INCREASE...WILL RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS THOUGH STILL CHILLY /20S/.

LONG TERM...

IN GENERAL A QUIET WEEK OF WEATHER IS IN STORE...ALTHOUGH A
PERSISTENT LOW-AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
AND ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE COULD
DISRUPT THINGS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING TO COME SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH RELATIVE TO RECENT WEATHER THIS EVENT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT. WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW OVER
BAJA CALIF THIS MORNING EJECT EWD BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIFT AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH AND SE OF THE FCST AREA.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS SNEAK INTO THE SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A COUPLE
OTHER PERIODS WHERE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NO
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THAT FROM THE MODELS. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK RETURNING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  23  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         57  24  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     56  25  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  26  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  27  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   56  27  51  35 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  28  51  36 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     60  27  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  29  57  39 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  29  59  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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