Area Forecast Discussion
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852
FXUS64 KLUB 192014
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A SLOW DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A RATHER
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT AGL
ADVECTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BOTH THE
WINDS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET...WITH
THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER WEST TEXAS. THE NAM DOES INDICATE SOME
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ITS TOUGH TO
EVALUATE HOW MUCH THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS. SHOULD REALIZE EXCELLENT COOLING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
THINK THE TRADITIONAL COOL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH OR SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK ONCE AGAIN.
THESE LOCATIONS WERE BELOW FREEZING A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO AND
SINCE WE ARE RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE FOR THIS
AREA...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS. FAVORED COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO SWING
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK. BLENDED MOS/MODEL HIGHS
AROUND 70 AREA WIDE SHOULD DO THE TRICK. JW

.LONG TERM...
STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF
GENERALLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OVERALL
PATTERN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS REMAINS ONE OF THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WEEK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY AND FAST SW FLOW LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM BAJA PAST THE 4-CORNERS TO THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.

FIRST SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE AS MAY SEE CONVECTION FORM ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NRN NM AND SRN COLO WITH POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO OR THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE. EACH RUN HAS LOOKED LESS LIKELY WITH THIS SCENARIO...
AND THE 12Z RUN IS NO DIFFERENT. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE BUT
PULL THEM A BIT FURTHERTO THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CHANCE FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT WEAKLY-FORCED NATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
THE CAP HOLDING LEAD TO KEEPING 20-30 PCT POPS. CHANCES EXIST
AREAWIDE TUESDAY BUT THEN SHIFT EWD WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
COMES CLOSER. BEST CHANCE DURING THE WEEK MAY BE THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT FROM BAJA...ALTHOUGH CAP STRENGTH THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL NEGATIVE ATTM. MAY HAVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY THAT COULD BOTH FOCUS CONVECTION
AND POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO SCOURED
EWD FRIDAY...AND CERTAINLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL HANG ONTO PRECIP MENTION NERN THIRD FRIDAY
AFTN AND KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL PROGS...CONTINUE
TO LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  69  42  77 /   0   0  20  20
TULIA         33  67  44  76 /   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     35  68  46  77 /   0   0  20  20
LEVELLAND     38  69  47  79 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  70  48  79 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   41  71  46  81 /   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    41  70  48  81 /   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     42  68  48  75 /   0   0  20  30
SPUR          41  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     42  69  51  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/07

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