Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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910
FXUS64 KLUB 090917
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FIRST MORNING IN ALMOST A WEEK THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  INSTEAD...WE HAVE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS AND WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS THAT DECENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT
WITH SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE MOISTURE FIELD OVER THE
REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS MIX OUT A BIT THROUGH THE DAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE.  MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE REGION SHOW WEAK CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP IN
PLACE.  COVERAGE REMAINS FAIRLY SPOTTY BUT THE VARIOUS FLAVORS OF
NWP POINT TOWARDS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW RESULTING IN AROUND 10 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HELP TO MOVE
STORMS JUST A BIT...IF THEY DEVELOP.  POP GRIDS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE WITH ONLY A MINOR ADJUSTMENT IN COVERAGE.  TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY DEEPENING LEE TROF THAT IS FORECAST TO BE LINED
UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE TX/NM STATE LINE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REALLY DOES NOT GET SCOURED OUT AS THE LEE TROF REMAINS
OVER THE AREA...AND AS IT STARTS TO POOL A BIT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-CLIMO TEMPS REMAINS IN THE OFFING LATER THIS
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN PERSISTENT L/W RIDGING FROM THE
ERN PACIFIC NORTH TO ALASKA ALLOWING COLD AIR TO MOTOR SOUTH. THE
FIRST OF TWO UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONTS WAS ALREADY PUSHING
ACROSS MONTANA THIS MORNING COMPLETE WITH LIGHT SNOW JUST NORTH OF
THE BORDER IN SRN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THIS FRONT IS ON TRACK
TO REACH OUR NRN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLOW A BIT BY THE
AFTN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER MIXING. THIS DEEP MIXING SHOULD AID
IN PARCELS BREACHING AN EML/LID AND LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS/TSTORMS.
DECIDED TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WWD ONTO THE CAPROCK WED AFTN
AS SOUNDINGS HERE ARE COMPARABLY FAVORABLE TO THOSE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS.

DESPITE THE UPPER FLOW FROM WED THROUGH FRI TRENDING WEAKLY
CYCLONIC...UPPER SUPPORT FOR A REGIONAL PRECIP EVENT IS RATHER
ABSENT. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...ROBUST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE TOUGH TO COME BY UNLIKE LAST FRI/SAT. THIS DOES LOOK TO
CHANGE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE NEXT GLANCING BLOW FROM AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH. GRADUAL BACKING OF WINDS AROUND
700MB FROM SW-SE IS SHOWN TO ADVECT HIGHER PWATS INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT MEANINGFUL LIFT DURING THIS TIME APPEARS SCARCE. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS INTACT LATE THU-EARLY FRI...BUT HAVE STARTED
CHIPPING AWAY POPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY FROM NE-SW ON FRI AHEAD OF A
STOUT 1034MB PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD. THIS SURFACE RIDGE
MAY VERY WELL KEEP THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO NEW MEXICO
IN THE FAVORED ELY UPSLOPE REGIME WHILE LEAVING US BONE DRY AS
DEWPOINTS CRATER INTO THE 40S. EVEN WITH A LAYER OF POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS ALONG THE FRONTAL INVERSION...STRONGER CAA FRI NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE SECOND COLD FRONT LOOKS SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME CHILLY
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S ACROSS A LARGE AREA.

THIS COOL SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS OVER THE AREA ON SAT...SO
WITH RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT ELY FLOW HIGH TEMPS WERE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT. THEREAFTER A SLOW RETURN TO CLIMO HIGHS LOOKS
GOOD UNDER RISING HEIGHTS WITH LEE TROUGHING TO OUR NW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  64  80  55  72 /  20  20  10  20  20
TULIA         91  69  82  56  72 /  10  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     91  69  83  56  73 /  10  10  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     91  67  85  58  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       92  69  86  58  76 /  10  10  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   90  69  87  61  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    92  69  88  61  77 /  10  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     96  75  87  60  74 /  10  10  20  20  20
SPUR          94  72  88  62  76 /  10  10  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     95  75  95  66  81 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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