Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 272328
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
528 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODEST UPPER FLOW WILL BACK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FLATTENING RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST. THIS WILL MANIFEST IN SLIGHT
DEEPENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO
MORE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AS WELL
AS DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND COMPONENTS. COMPLIMENTED
BY SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE TONIGHT...
WITH A LARGER BOOST FRIDAY AS 70S RETURN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WE
WILL FAVOR STILL THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THIS
SECTOR OF THE PATTERN TRANSITION. ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE ALOFT...
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PERHAPS. BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PANHANDLE WHERE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS AT THE H850 MILLIBAR LEVEL ARE EXPECTED. DEEPER MIXING
ABOVE H850 SEEMS UNLIKELY FOR FRIDAY AT LEAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST OR THINKING REGARDING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. A PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE...DRY AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND NEAR FULL INSOLATION WILL
ALL SUPPORT WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY THREATEN RECORD
HIGHS...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY WHEN THE RECORD IS A RELATIVELY
COOL 78 DEGREES /SET IN 2012/ AT LUBBOCK. IN ADDITION...THE
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER.

A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHOCK US BACK TO REALITY
JUST IN TIME FOR DECEMBER...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS
LATE ON SUNDAY. THE FROPA WILL BE A DRY ONE...BUT NWP CONTINUES TO
TREND COOLER WITH THIS AIRMASS...WHICH IS BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE -20S
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THANKFULLY...WEST TEXAS WILL ONLY SEE A
GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS PROGRESSIVE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALREADY ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AFTER HIGHS ONLY
EDGING UP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT COULD THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AND HAS NOT BEEN EXPLICITLY
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST ATTM /THOUGH WE DID TEMPER BACK THE WARMING
TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND PERHAPS
LONGER...THOUGH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  76  37  75  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         35  74  37  77  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  74  37  75  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     33  75  34  75  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  75  36  75  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   34  70  35  72  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    34  73  34  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  73  42  77  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          36  70  38  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  70  43  74  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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