Area Forecast Discussion
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497
FXUS64 KLUB 011756
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR KLBB TODAY WITH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING UNDERWAY. SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL HOLD NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
KCDS BEFORE RETREATING WESTWARD AFTER 00Z. THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE DRY-LINE IS LOW
TODAY ALTHOUGH SHOULD THIS OCCUR THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF
IMPACT AT KCDS...FEEL CHANCES CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR MENTION. A
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER KLBB WHICH
INITIALLY WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE JET LIFTS
OVERNIGHT. A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EVENT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH STILL
IN UNLIKELY CATEGORY FOR THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ONLY POSSIBLE INTERRUPTION TO
THIS COULD BE PROVIDED BY AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORM AROUND
KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH CHANCES FOR
THIS ARE LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY
WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED WESTERLIES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE
CONUS...INCLUDING SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WAS PROVIDING
THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION FROM THE LAND OF 10,000 LAKES THROUGH THE
SUNFLOWER STATE. MORE JET ENERGY WAS ALSO NOTED RACING OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND IT WILL EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING WHERE IT WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT LINGERING IN THE PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT/FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WHERE THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE.

HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
OF 08Z. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND
BEGINS LOOSING DEFINITION WHILE A THERMAL LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. DRY WESTERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK AND COUPLED
WITH STRONG INSOLATION IT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. IT APPEARS
THE RECORD AT LUBBOCK /99 DEGREES...LAST TOUCHED LAST YEAR/ WILL
AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY...WITH MANY SPOTS AGAIN EXPERIENCING HIGHS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE DECAYING FRONT AND LACK OF
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE RELATIVELY COOLER
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THE STRONG HEATING/THERMALS MAY BE ABLE
TO BREACH THE CAP WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND TIGHTENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT A LITTLE GREATER THAN
YESTERDAY...SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SHOWING
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z. HENCE...WE HAVE ELECTED TO
INCLUDE A LOW CONDITIONAL STORM MENTION IN THE FORECAST FROM
21-06Z...PRIMARILY FOR BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH SBCAPES
OF 1500+ J/KG COULD SUPPORT A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...THOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL THEN LIKELY
MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. INSTEAD...MOIST SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL DELIVER
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT LOCALLY.

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE FINAL DAY OF ACUTE WARMTH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHS NEAR 100F AGAIN IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE NW CWA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. WED AND THU SHOULD
BRING PRETTY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL TX...WITH OUR CWA ON THE WRN PERIPHERY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE /POSSIBLY TIED
TO A TROPICAL WAVE/ UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOW STRATUS INVADING FROM THE SOUTH AS EARLY AS WED MORNING.
BUT LACK OF ANY LIFT SHOULD KEEP POPS VERY LOW DESPITE THE
INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND
AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE ECMWF IS STILL DEVELOPING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
INGREDIENTS INCLUDE A RICH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...INCLUDING A POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT BY A TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEAR SRN BAJA...AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGGING INTO THE
AREA PROVIDING A LOW-LVL FOCUS. THE 00 UTC GFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC
/IN CONTRAST TO IT/S PREVIOUS 12 UTC RUN/. ALTHOUGH IT HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF THE PROJECTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO OF
STRONG RIDGING OVERHEAD...IT KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND THE
DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THE BETTER
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF PROG...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD IT AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGHER POPS AND LOWER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  91  63  92  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  94  66  93  66 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  67  93  65 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     67  96  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       71  96  70  93  68 /  10  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  97  66  92  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  97  66  93  66 /  10  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     74  98  72  97  72 /  20  10  10  10   0
SPUR          71  97  72  95  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     73  99  74  96  73 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05

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