Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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395
FXUS64 KLUB 171012
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
412 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
DEEP AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OCCUPIED THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE
GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING AND THIS THEME WILL REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH TONIGHT. A BROAD MERIDIONAL SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND BE LOCATED OFF
THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MILDER SW BREEZES. SNOWPACK
COLOR CURVE ON IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NAM AND RUC INITIALIZED
THE SNOW COVER RATHER WELL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES...SO WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE SCALED BACK MAX TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL CERTAINLY STUNT
RADIATIONAL WARMING...ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME BITTER LOWS TO START
THE DAY. AWAY FROM THE SNOW COVER... WENT WITH THE MILD MET
NUMBERS AS THESE DRY AIRMASSES OFTEN WARM SURPRISINGLY FAST UNDER
FULL SUN WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. STEADY SW WINDS AREA WIDE TONIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR MILDER LOWS...HOWEVER EVEN THESE ARE STILL 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS WAVE WILL BRING LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES. A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH THE MODELS HAVE
SLIGHT TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS. INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS WAVE ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN TAKING PLACE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO STAY TOO FAR TO THE EAST OF
US TO PUT ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

AS THIS WAVE PASSES BY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ONLY DROP TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. A MUCH STRONGER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW STRONG THIS WAVE WILL BE.
REGARDLESS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CREEPS INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ONTO THE CAPROCK BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CURRENT
SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE...WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH LOW-
END CHANCE AT THIS TIME BUT DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

JORDAN



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  14  46  24  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         35  16  47  26  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  18  48  26  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  20  49  27  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       40  19  48  28  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  21  50  27  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  21  50  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  20  50  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          41  22  49  31  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  22  51  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14

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