Area Forecast Discussion
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678
FXUS64 KLUB 182344 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
544 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER SUNNY...MILD AND BREEZY/WINDY DAY IS ON TAP..BUT THE
DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT THE WIND IS BLOWING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND IS
AIDING TO FILTER IN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LOOKING AT THE
SFC...DEEPENED SFC LEE TROUGHING HAVE RESULTED IN RATHER
BREEZY/WINDY SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS...WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH BEING
COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
15-25 MPH MORE SO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THESE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS HAVE PROMOTED IN KEEPING TEMPS RATHER MILD FOR JANUARY...WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S ON THE CAPROCK TO UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S OFF THE CAPROCK. AS SUCH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 10-25 PERCENT RANGE...COUPLING THIS WITH THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS TICKING OFF
SOME RED-FLAG MINUTES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. A NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN OCCUR AOA SUNSET...WHILST CONCURRENTLY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH COMMENCES TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION
THUS RESULTING IN SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE W-NW BY TONIGHT. LIGHT
SFC WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO COOL INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND WARM
CONDITIONS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ WILL CHARACTERIZE MLK
DAY...THOUGH WITH RATHER LIGHT N-NW WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY. /29

LONG TERM...
FAST AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A COUPLE
RIPPLES EDGING BY TO THE NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT ON COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE STILL FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SETTLING IN FOR TUESDAY. AIRMASS INITIALLY WILL BE DRY
THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER.

BY WEDNESDAY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH CARVES INTO A SHARPER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS
LIKELY INTO AT LEAST SOUTHWEST TEXAS. STILL SOME QUESTION IF WE
WILL REALLY SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE DEEPENING THROUGH THE CRITICAL
LAYERS THAT EFFECT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...THUS LEADING TO
MEANINGFUL CHANCES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE
MOST RECENT LONG TERM SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING MORE THAT WAY AND OUR
SUPERBLENDED SOLUTIONS SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
CHANCES FAVORING SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. AN UPPER TROUGH IN
THE POLAR BRANCH APPEARING TO PASS IN TANDEM WITH THE SOUTHWEST
TROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY ALSO MAY BECOME A FACTOR THOUGH MOISTURE
DEPTH THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES STILL IN EVEN MORE DOUBT. ANYWAY...WE
HAVE TRENDED MID WEEK SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WETTER FOR NOW. THERMAL
PROFILE FOR NOW ALSO SUPPORTS AN INITIAL MIXED PHASE ON THE
CAPROCK CHANGING OVER ON THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY LIQUID ROLLING
PLAINS.

A NON-QUIESCENT NORTHWEST FLOW IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND THOUGH AIRMASS SHOULD DRY...AND SOLUTIONS REMAIN OUT
OF PHASE WITH THESE SMALLER SCALE WAVES. RETAINING A DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
DEEPENING SFC LEE TROUGHING HAVE PROMOTED RATHER BREEZY/WINDY
SOUTHWEST 20-FOOT WINDS LATE THIS AFTN...WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM
THE 15-30 MPH. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE CAUSED TEMPS TO WARM SOME
14-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND HENCE...ALLOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO FALL TO THE 10-25 PERCENT RANGE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS COUPLED WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES AND RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN A HIGH
FIRE DANGER. WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
IS HIGHEST THERE. THIS THREAT IS QUITE EVIDENT GIVEN FIRE DEPTS ARE
FIGHTING A GRASS FIRE 5 MILES SW OF MEMPHIS ALONG COUNTRY ROAD 23.
AS SUCH...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ARE UNDER AN ONGOING RED FLAG
WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ALSO UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING. IT
IS THEREFORE HIGHLY DISCOURAGE TO UTILIZE OUTDOOR EQUIPMENT THAT
PRODUCE SPARKS OR FLAMES. BY AOA SUNSET...WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP TO
BELOW 15 MPH AND VEER TO THE W-NW OVERNIGHT. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  66  32  50  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         29  67  33  51  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     31  67  34  53  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  68  34  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       31  69  34  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  69  34  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  68  33  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     36  70  35  57  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          35  69  36  57  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     36  69  35  62  35 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ022>026-028>032-034>038.

&&

$$

14/93/14

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