Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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786
FXUS64 KLUB 090454
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WITH MILD AND BREEZY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEST 35 KT LOW
LEVEL JET OVERHEAD JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE WIND SHEAR LEVELS.
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...
LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF BOTH KLBB AND KCDS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014/

AVIATION...
MODERATE STRENGTH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AIRMASS DRYING AND WARMING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WE DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
OVERNIGHT THOUGH SURFACE REMAINS DAMP. WIND FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH A BETTER MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE THE RESULT. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A DEEPENING LOW ON LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES ACROSS CENTRAL CO/KS STATE
LINE HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS...THAT ALONG WITH MODERATE 850MB WINDS TRANSLATING TO THE
SURFACE HAS WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25KTS IN THE SOUTH PLAINS AND UP TO
30KTS FARTHER NORTH IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATER THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...5C 850MB
TEMP INCREASE AND MODERATE 850 MB WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL KEEP
MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S ON OUR
WESTERN BOUNDARY TO LOW 70S EASTWARD NEAR THE CAPROCK.

TUESDAY MORNING WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AND INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. GIVEN DRYER AIRMASS AND FEWER CLOUDS...WE WILL SEE
CONTINUING WARMING TREND WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 90S ALONG WITH CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY
TOMORROW HINTS TOWARD SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THUS EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS JUST A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE WITH UPDATED GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THIS ITERATION OF THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM
MINOR TWEAKS...AS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE STICKING TO ITS GUNS
FOR THE TIME BEING...ALBEIT STILL WITH CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES.  THE
PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE APPROACH OF TWO
COLD FRONTS...THE FIRST ARRIVING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE SECOND
EARLY ON FRIDAY AS MORE OF A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY BY
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH
RAIN THE AREA WILL SEE.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD LATE TOMORROW...A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO REPRESENT
THIS POSSIBILITY.  SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN ARRIVE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AS THE FIRST FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING
MODEST LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING QPF ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE IN THIS REGION THE PLACEMENT
OF BEST RAIN CHANCES MAKES SENSE.  HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE PASSING THROUGH RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY... IT SEEMS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE PRIOR TO 18Z
DESPITE THE INSISTENCE OF SOLUTIONS TO FAVOR THE 18-06Z TIME FRAME.
IT MAY BE THAT THESE SOLUTIONS ARE OVERDOING THE POST-FRONTAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AS IS COMMONLY THE CASE IN THESE
SITUATIONS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND IN PARTICULAR THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING
PERIOD.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...OPTED TO ADD A MENTION OF
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AS THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY.  THIS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD...PERHAPS
WITH SOME MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...AND
INSERT LOW THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS MOST LIKELY BUT STILL A LONG-SHOT.

BY EARLY FRIDAY...A SECOND AND STRONGER SURGE OF COOL AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS MARCH THROUGH THE AREA...AND MODELS CONTINUE
TO STICK TO THEIR RESPECTIVE BIASES.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT
A STRONGER AND MUCH WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS WEAKER
AND DRIER.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS A BIT SHARPER IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AS WELL AND THIS MAY BE PROVIDING A BIT MORE UPPER FORCING...BUT
REGARDLESS IT SEEMS THAT ITS EXTREMELY BULLISH QPF TOTALS ARE
OVERDONE FOR A POST-FRONTAL PATTERN SUCH AS THIS ONE.  IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT RAIN TOTALS COULD RECEIVE A BOOST VIA A MID-LEVEL
TROPICAL CONNECTION SIMILAR TO THE LAST EVENT...BUT PWAT VALUES
APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FOR THIS EVENT THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE.  THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE GFS IN ITS DEPICTION OF
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY...KEEPING QPF TOTALS LOW.
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE REGION CAN RECOVER THURSDAY...THERE WILL
BE BRIEF A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SECOND
FRONT ENCOUNTERS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
LOW THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY FRIDAY
TIME-FRAME WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL REGARDLESS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
THURSDAY AND 60S FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS RIDGING SLOWLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH.
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK IT APPEARS THAT THE MONSOON WILL
SLOWLY RELOAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHETHER OR NOT WEST TEXAS WILL BENEFIT IN THE FORM OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  88  60  80  55 /   0  20  20  10  20
TULIA         67  90  63  82  56 /   0  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     67  90  67  83  56 /   0  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     67  90  69  85  58 /   0  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       68  91  70  86  58 /   0  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   67  90  69  87  61 /   0  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    67  91  70  88  61 /   0  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  96  74  87  60 /   0  10  10  20  20
SPUR          70  95  72  88  62 /   0   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     73  96  75  95  66 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05

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