Area Forecast Discussion
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669
FXUS64 KLUB 231734
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY AT KCDS THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE DRYLINE BUT OTHER THAN BEING A
BIT BUMPY FROM DEEP MIXING. SMOOTHER AIR IS PROBABLY OUT OF REACH
FOR NORMALLY ASPIRATED AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
INVERSION UP ABOVE 14KFT.  A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING WITH IT LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND
SHIFT.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL BEEF UP
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING. A DRYLINE WILL MAKE A GOOD PUSH INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS WITH DEEPER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL BRING US BACK TO REALITY WITH INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
WEST TEXAS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET MAXES ARE WEAK AND WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION TO SEE ANY MEANINGFUL IMPACT ON SURFACE WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK 20-25KT MAX AT 700MB CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS BUT THIS IS NOT ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. WE WILL
SEE DEEP MIXING TO APPROXIMATELY 600MB BUT WINDS AT THIS LEVEL STILL
TOP OUT AT 15-20KT. THIS IS ALSO IF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
DOES NOT GET IN THE WAY OF DEEP MIXING. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES IN RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
A SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THIS WEEK
GRADUALLY CARVING OUT A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS BY THURSDAY. INITIALLY...PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR DRY
AND BREEZY PERIODS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COOL PUSHES SUCH AS
TUESDAY. BUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A STRONGER PUSH OF
COLD AIR SHOULD BE UNDERWAY WHILE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE CAPABLE OF
ADDITIONAL LIFT THOUGH WITH HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CENTERED
ON THURSDAY AS THE LAST COUPLE WRF/NAM RUNS SEEM TO BE QUITE WET
COMPARED TO ANYTHING ELSE. THEN...A MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH BY FRIDAY APPEARS WILL ALLOW A TAP OF BONAFIDE
COLD CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS THOUGH
LOOKING MORE LIKE A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE WESTERN RIDGE SHOULD BE FORCED EAST AND FLATTENED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS NEW PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A
SOLID WEEKEND WARMUP STILL LOOKS REASONABLE BEFORE ANY SUCH UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK.

BIGGEST CHANGES THIS TIME INVOLVED A BIT MORE BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS PERSISTING WEDNESDAY. THEN...CONSIDERATION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY THOUGH MINIMIZED FOR NOW AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. ALSO...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ANOTHER NOTCH FOR
FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE WARMING NEXT WEEKEND. A COOL DOWN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE
INTO THE MID 80S WHICH IS NEAR RECORD TERRITORY. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WILL
CAUSE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO BE BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE WILL STALL
OUT OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS LEAVING MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL WILL LIKELY APPROACH 20 MPH
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUSTAINED AT THESE SPEEDS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY INTERMITTENT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND THEN PERHAPS INTO
NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM LIKELY
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. MODEST COOL PUSH TUESDAY UNLIKELY TO
DISLODGE THE WARM DRY PATTERN. ENOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY
LOOK LIKE ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY TRENDING
MORE LIKELY AS WELL TO SEE AREA-WIDE TYPE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING. STRONGER WIND FLOW STILL APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. RMCQUEEN

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  42  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         84  46  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     84  47  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     84  47  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       86  48  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  48  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  48  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     86  54  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          85  54  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     85  59  87  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26

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