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031
FXUS64 KLUB 280455 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE KLBB
TERMINAL. FRONT MADE IT THROUGH KCDS WITH A NORTHEAST WIND 15G25KT
BUT EXPECT WIND SPEED TO BE A BIT LOWER AT KLBB. FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE START OF THE 06Z TAFS. STORMS FIRED ALONG
THE FRONT NORTHEAST OF KLBB BUT HAVE DISSIPATED...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT AT KLBB AND LEFT
POPS OUT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES
WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO CONTINUED THE PROB30
GROUPS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN ONSET OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO PLACE A PREVAILING TSRA IN AT THIS TIME BUT
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
ALONG THE FRONT BUT LOCATION AND ONSET TIME REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING BEFORE THEN FOR NOW. WILL
EVALUATE WHEN THE LATEST COMPUTER FORECASTS ARRIVE TONIGHT AND SEE
IF WE CANNOT NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS ONE LAST DAY OF HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL.

THE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND THUS...850 MB TEMPS REMAINED
HIGH /THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY/ LEADING TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL NOT ONLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THE UA RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAS ALSO SENT ITS ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT
/10-20 MPH/ ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY PER 20Z METARS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND CAUSED
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. IN FACT...AN AGITATED CU-FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AND SEE IF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACES...FOR IF IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH-BASED AS EXHIBITED PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF
AGITATED CU-FIELDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
SOUTH PLAINS...NEAREST TO THE MAIN FRONT. RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THERE AND
TOWARDS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. IF SO...THE ACTIVITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED AND HENCE...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS /40-50
MPH/ WILL BE A PLAUSIBILITY.

AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THUS ALLOWING
THE MONSOON MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
LINGERING FRONT COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE /PWATS THEREFORE
INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/...AND SHARPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
COULD FILTER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ARE INITIALLY FAVORED AS PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE...BUT CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...TO ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN
ZONES TOMORROW AFTN. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALTHOUGH UL SUPPORT IS LACKING...A
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL GIVE US
A BREAK FROM THE HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIO WILL OFFER QUITE A CHANGE FROM THIS PAST WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY WEST. THIS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR THE
COOLER REGIME WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND PROBABLY
A WETTER REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WHERE AND
WHEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR REMAIN IN
QUESTION WITH MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO FAVOR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING VORTEX ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE WEST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK AND ALLOW A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT
THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EURO CAN ALL AGREE ON EARLY
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WHATEVER
LITTLE CLARITY THERE MAY BE THEN DISAPPEARS IN SUCCESSIVELY LATER
PERIODS. GFS ADVERTISES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ADVECTING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF HAS
BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION WITH QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION...EURO
AND TTU WRF...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TWO ARE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE COMPLEX. BASED ON THIS...HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE IN THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN RETREATS NORTH ON TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TAKING
BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WTH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING COPIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
EVENTUAL PROPAGATION/ADVECTION INTO WEST TEXAS. THE EURO HAS SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENT BUT MAINTAINS MAJORITY OF QPF WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN NEARLY
NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED AT 500 MB. NONTHELESS...SOMETHING TO EVALUATE
FURTHER AS THE UPCOMING WEEK PROGRESSES. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  64  83  64 /  30  40  50  40  30
TULIA         64  85  66  82  66 /  30  30  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     64  87  65  83  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     66  89  66  88  67 /  10  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  92  66  90  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  92  67  89  68 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  88  70  86  70 /  30  30  50  50  30
SPUR          67  90  68  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  94  71  91  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14
686
FXUS64 KLUB 272340 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN ONSET OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO PLACE A PREVAILING TSRA IN AT THIS TIME BUT
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
ALONG THE FRONT BUT LOCATION AND ONSET TIME REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING BEFORE THEN FOR NOW. WILL
EVALUATE WHEN THE LATEST COMPUTER FORECASTS ARRIVE TONIGHT AND SEE
IF WE CANNOT NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS ONE LAST DAY OF HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL.

THE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND THUS...850 MB TEMPS REMAINED
HIGH /THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY/ LEADING TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL NOT ONLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THE UA RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAS ALSO SENT ITS ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT
/10-20 MPH/ ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY PER 20Z METARS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND CAUSED
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. IN FACT...AN AGITATED CU-FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AND SEE IF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACES...FOR IF IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH-BASED AS EXHIBITED PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF
AGITATED CU-FIELDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
SOUTH PLAINS...NEAREST TO THE MAIN FRONT. RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THERE AND
TOWARDS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. IF SO...THE ACTIVITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED AND HENCE...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS /40-50
MPH/ WILL BE A PLAUSIBILITY.

AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THUS ALLOWING
THE MONSOON MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
LINGERING FRONT COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE /PWATS THEREFORE
INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/...AND SHARPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
COULD FILTER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ARE INITIALLY FAVORED AS PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE...BUT CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...TO ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN
ZONES TOMORROW AFTN. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALTHOUGH UL SUPPORT IS LACKING...A
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL GIVE US
A BREAK FROM THE HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIO WILL OFFER QUITE A CHANGE FROM THIS PAST WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY WEST. THIS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR THE
COOLER REGIME WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND PROBABLY
A WETTER REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WHERE AND
WHEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR REMAIN IN
QUESTION WITH MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO FAVOR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING VORTEX ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE WEST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK AND ALLOW A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT
THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EURO CAN ALL AGREE ON EARLY
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WHATEVER
LITTLE CLARITY THERE MAY BE THEN DISAPPEARS IN SUCCESSIVELY LATER
PERIODS. GFS ADVERTISES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ADVECTING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF HAS
BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION WITH QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION...EURO
AND TTU WRF...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TWO ARE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE COMPLEX. BASED ON THIS...HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE IN THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN RETREATS NORTH ON TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TAKING
BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WTH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING COPIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
EVENTUAL PROPAGATION/ADVECTION INTO WEST TEXAS. THE EURO HAS SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENT BUT MAINTAINS MAJORITY OF QPF WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN NEARLY
NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED AT 500 MB. NONTHELESS...SOMETHING TO EVALUATE
FURTHER AS THE UPCOMING WEEK PROGRESSES. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  64  83  64 /  30  40  50  40  30
TULIA         64  85  66  82  66 /  30  30  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     64  87  65  83  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     66  89  66  88  67 /  10  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  92  66  90  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  92  67  89  68 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  88  70  86  70 /  30  30  50  50  30
SPUR          67  90  68  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  94  71  91  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99
030
FXUS64 KLUB 272017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS ONE LAST DAY OF HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL.

THE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND THUS...850 MB TEMPS REMAINED
HIGH /THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY/ LEADING TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL NOT ONLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THE UA RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAS ALSO SENT ITS ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT
/10-20 MPH/ ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY PER 20Z METARS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND CAUSED
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. IN FACT...AN AGITATED CU-FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AND SEE IF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACES...FOR IF IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH-BASED AS EXHIBITED PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF
AGITATED CU-FIELDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
SOUTH PLAINS...NEAREST TO THE MAIN FRONT. RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THERE AND
TOWARDS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. IF SO...THE ACTIVITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED AND HENCE...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS /40-50
MPH/ WILL BE A PLAUSIBILITY.

AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THUS ALLOWING
THE MONSOON MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
LINGERING FRONT COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE /PWATS THEREFORE
INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/...AND SHARPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
COULD FILTER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ARE INITIALLY FAVORED AS PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE...BUT CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...TO ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN
ZONES TOMORROW AFTN. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALTHOUGH UL SUPPORT IS LACKING...A
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL GIVE US
A BREAK FROM THE HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIO WILL OFFER QUITE A CHANGE FROM THIS PAST WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY WEST. THIS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR THE
COOLER REGIME WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND PROBABLY
A WETTER REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WHERE AND
WHEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR REMAIN IN
QUESTION WITH MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO FAVOR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING VORTEX ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE WEST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK AND ALLOW A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT
THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EURO CAN ALL AGREE ON EARLY
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WHATEVER
LITTLE CLARITY THERE MAY BE THEN DISAPPEARS IN SUCCESSIVELY LATER
PERIODS. GFS ADVERTISES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ADVECTING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF HAS
BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION WITH QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION...EURO
AND TTU WRF...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TWO ARE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE COMPLEX. BASED ON THIS...HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE IN THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN RETREATS NORTH ON TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TAKING
BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WTH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING COPIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
EVENTUAL PROPAGATION/ADVECTION INTO WEST TEXAS. THE EURO HAS SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENT BUT MAINTAINS MAJORITY OF QPF WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN NEARLY
NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED AT 500 MB. NONTHELESS...SOMETHING TO EVALUATE
FURTHER AS THE UPCOMING WEEK PROGRESSES. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  64  83  64 /  30  40  50  40  30
TULIA         64  85  66  82  66 /  30  30  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     64  87  65  83  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     66  89  66  88  67 /  10  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  92  66  90  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  92  67  89  68 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  88  70  86  70 /  30  30  50  50  30
SPUR          67  90  68  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  94  71  91  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/13
184
FXUS64 KLUB 271720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED JUST NORTH OF KCDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COMPUTER MODELS HINTING AT IT SAGGING SOUTH AND
AFFECTING KCDS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LEADING TO A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. AT KLBB...S-SW WINDS WILL ENSUE. HOWEVER...A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PUSH IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND
AFFECT KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND IMPINGE ON KLBB BY THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...AND HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A PROB30 AT KCDS TO SHOW THE
BEST TIME OF THIS OCCURRENCE. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A PRECIP
MENTION AT KLBB ATTM...GIVEN COMPUTER MODELS SHOW BETTER CHANCES
AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH
NORTHEAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE
SHAPE TODAY/TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID-SUMMER UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING DIGS PROGRESSIVELY
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO SHIFT
WESTWARD EVER SO SLOWLY. EVEN SO...THE UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS
DICTATED THE WEATHER AND BROUGHT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION RECENTLY WILL NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN JUST YET. STILL...DEEP LAYER THICKNESSES AND
PROGGED LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO COOL SLIGHTLY...SO HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL PEAK
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EDGE IN
THIS MORNING AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LOOSE DEFINITION THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
INTO TONIGHT.

THE LATEST ROUND OF NWP INDICATES THAT THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
/SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES/ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE IT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. IF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR ANY OUTFLOW
PUSHES ALONG IT...CAN MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES...A FEW
HIGH-BASED SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD GRACE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO... WHERE A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
NM/CO CONVECTION MAY LAST LATE INTO TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BEST THUNDER/RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHIFT AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE ALOFT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOO. GIVEN THIS...AT
LEAST LOW THUNDER CHANCES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID-60S NEAR FRIONA TO MID-70S AROUND
ASPERMONT.

LONG TERM...
.A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...

THE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD BE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME ONGOING ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN ZONES. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
SET UP A FAVORABLE AXIS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON RUNNING ALONG AN ARC FROM NE NM TO THE SRN ROLLING
PLAINS PER THE 00 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...OR THE BOUNDARY
MAY SURGE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND TAKING THE FOCUS FOR
CI WITH IT PER MUCH OF THE HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE. NO CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS POINT BUT WE HAVE RECONFIGURED POPS FROM FAVORING THE NORTH
MORE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND
TAKE THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW TUE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT
AND/OR TRAINING CELLS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NO FIRM INDICATION AT THIS POINT. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BACK TO OUR
NW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SRN
ROCKIES INDUCING WIDESPREAD STORMS FROM NRN NM ON NORTH...ALTHOUGH
WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME STORM ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN THE CWA.
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A COMPLEX WHICH WILL PROGRESS SWED INTO
WESTERN OKLA WED...WITH LESSER COVERAGE/CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COOL SURGE...LIKELY OUTFLOW-AIDED...WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING
AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER AREA-WIDE THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPS THURS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
WITH THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST. A GRADUAL
EWD DRIFT MAY EDGE THE UPPER RIDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA WHILE A
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS KEEPS THE SUPPLY OF
COOLER AIR FLOWING IN. IN THIS PATTERN...THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DESERT SW INTO THE 4-CORNERS
REGION AND CENTRAL NM WHERE AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRPAHIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME DIURNAL
ACTIVITY COULD CREEP TOWARD THE STATE LINE EACH EVENING...BUT
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FRI-SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  85  64  85  63 /  30  40  40  40  30
TULIA         67  84  65  84  65 /  30  30  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     67  86  65  85  66 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     68  89  64  90  66 /  10  30  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  89  69  89  69 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  91  66  91  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    69  91  66  91  67 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     71  88  69  86  69 /  30  30  40  40  30
SPUR          72  92  68  89  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  95  70  90  71 /  10  30  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
793
FXUS64 KLUB 271143
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
643 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTHWARD THROUGH KCDS BRINGING A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING...AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD
ALSO AFFECT KLBB. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE TERMINALS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES RESIDING AT
KCDS. EVEN SO...CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT THUNDERSTORM IMPACT REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE
SHAPE TODAY/TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID-SUMMER UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING DIGS PROGRESSIVELY
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO SHIFT
WESTWARD EVER SO SLOWLY. EVEN SO...THE UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS
DICTATED THE WEATHER AND BROUGHT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION RECENTLY WILL NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN JUST YET. STILL...DEEP LAYER THICKNESSES AND
PROGGED LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO COOL SLIGHTLY...SO HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL PEAK
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EDGE IN
THIS MORNING AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LOOSE DEFINITION THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
INTO TONIGHT.

THE LATEST ROUND OF NWP INDICATES THAT THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
/SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES/ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE IT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. IF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR ANY OUTFLOW
PUSHES ALONG IT...CAN MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES...A FEW
HIGH-BASED SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD GRACE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO... WHERE A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
NM/CO CONVECTION MAY LAST LATE INTO TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BEST THUNDER/RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHIFT AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE ALOFT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOO. GIVEN THIS...AT
LEAST LOW THUNDER CHANCES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID-60S NEAR FRIONA TO MID-70S AROUND
ASPERMONT.

LONG TERM...
..A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...

THE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD BE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME ONGOING ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN ZONES. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
SET UP A FAVORABLE AXIS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON RUNNING ALONG AN ARC FROM NE NM TO THE SRN ROLLING
PLAINS PER THE 00 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...OR THE BOUNDARY
MAY SURGE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND TAKING THE FOCUS FOR
CI WITH IT PER MUCH OF THE HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE. NO CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS POINT BUT WE HAVE RECONFIGURED POPS FROM FAVORING THE NORTH
MORE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND
TAKE THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW TUE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT
AND/OR TRAINING CELLS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NO FIRM INDICATION AT THIS POINT. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BACK TO OUR
NW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SRN
ROCKIES INDUCING WIDESPREAD STORMS FROM NRN NM ON NORTH...ALTHOUGH
WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME STORM ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN THE CWA.
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A COMPLEX WHICH WILL PROGRESS SWED INTO
WESTERN OKLA WED...WITH LESSER COVERAGE/CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COOL SURGE...LIKELY OUTFLOW-AIDED...WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING
AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER AREA-WIDE THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPS THURS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
WITH THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST. A GRADUAL
EWD DRIFT MAY EDGE THE UPPER RIDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA WHILE A
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS KEEPS THE SUPPLY OF
COOLER AIR FLOWING IN. IN THIS PATTERN...THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DESERT SW INTO THE 4-CORNERS
REGION AND CENTRAL NM WHERE AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRPAHIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME DIURNAL
ACTIVITY COULD CREEP TOWARD THE STATE LINE EACH EVENING...BUT
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FRI-SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  85  64  85 /  20  30  40  40  40
TULIA         92  67  84  65  84 /  20  30  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     93  67  86  65  85 /  10  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     97  68  89  64  90 /  10  10  30  20  30
LUBBOCK       99  70  89  68  89 /  10  10  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   97  69  91  66  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    99  69  91  66  91 /  10  10  30  20  20
CHILDRESS    102  71  88  69  86 /  10  30  30  40  40
SPUR         102  72  92  68  89 /  10  10  30  30  30
ASPERMONT    103  74  95  70  90 /   0  10  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
075
FXUS64 KLUB 270903
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
403 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE
SHAPE TODAY/TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID-SUMMER UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING DIGS PROGRESSIVELY
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO SHIFT
WESTWARD EVER SO SLOWLY. EVEN SO...THE UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS
DICTATED THE WEATHER AND BROUGHT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION RECENTLY WILL NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN JUST YET. STILL...DEEP LAYER THICKNESSES AND
PROGGED LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO COOL SLIGHTLY...SO HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL PEAK
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EDGE IN
THIS MORNING AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LOOSE DEFINITION THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
INTO TONIGHT.

THE LATEST ROUND OF NWP INDICATES THAT THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
/SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES/ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE IT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. IF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR ANY OUTFLOW
PUSHES ALONG IT...CAN MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES...A FEW
HIGH-BASED SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD GRACE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO... WHERE A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
NM/CO CONVECTION MAY LAST LATE INTO TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BEST THUNDER/RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHIFT AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE ALOFT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOO. GIVEN THIS...AT
LEAST LOW THUNDER CHANCES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID-60S NEAR FRIONA TO MID-70S AROUND
ASPERMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
...A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...

THE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD BE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME ONGOING ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN ZONES. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
SET UP A FAVORABLE AXIS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON RUNNING ALONG AN ARC FROM NE NM TO THE SRN ROLLING
PLAINS PER THE 00 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...OR THE BOUNDARY
MAY SURGE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND TAKING THE FOCUS FOR
CI WITH IT PER MUCH OF THE HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE. NO CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS POINT BUT WE HAVE RECONFIGURED POPS FROM FAVORING THE NORTH
MORE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND
TAKE THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW TUE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT
AND/OR TRAINING CELLS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NO FIRM INDICATION AT THIS POINT. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BACK TO OUR
NW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SRN
ROCKIES INDUCING WIDESPREAD STORMS FROM NRN NM ON NORTH...ALTHOUGH
WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME STORM ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN THE CWA.
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A COMPLEX WHICH WILL PROGRESS SWED INTO
WESTERN OKLA WED...WITH LESSER COVERAGE/CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COOL SURGE...LIKELY OUTFLOW-AIDED...WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING
AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER AREA-WIDE THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPS THURS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
WITH THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST. A GRADUAL
EWD DRIFT MAY EDGE THE UPPER RIDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA WHILE A
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS KEEPS THE SUPPLY OF
COOLER AIR FLOWING IN. IN THIS PATTERN...THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DESERT SW INTO THE 4-CORNERS
REGION AND CENTRAL NM WHERE AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRPAHIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME DIURNAL
ACTIVITY COULD CREEP TOWARD THE STATE LINE EACH EVENING...BUT
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FRI-SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  85  64  85 /  20  30  40  40  40
TULIA         92  67  84  65  84 /  20  30  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     93  67  86  65  85 /  10  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     97  68  89  64  90 /  10  10  30  20  30
LUBBOCK       98  71  89  69  89 /  10  10  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   97  69  91  66  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    99  69  91  66  91 /  10  10  30  20  20
CHILDRESS    102  71  88  69  86 /  10  30  30  40  40
SPUR         102  72  92  68  89 /  10  10  30  30  30
ASPERMONT    103  74  95  70  90 /   0  10  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
739
FXUS64 KLUB 262319 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN. THE SAID RIDGE HAS FLATTENED A BIT COURTESY
OF AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS SRN MANITOBA. DESPITE THE
DE-AMPLIFICATION...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 24-31 DEGREES C HAS PROVIDED
THE REGION WITH ANOTHER HOT DAY...AS TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK TO UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS OFF THE CAPROCK. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION
AND A NEARBY SFC TROUGH HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO. RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT THE ACTIVITY FROM IMPINGING ON THE CWA LATER THIS
EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE /UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
SW TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/ WITH LOW
CONCERNS OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEING MET...GIVEN ANTICIPATED
HEAT INDICES AOA 100 DEGREES F ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS /WHICH IS BELOW THE 105 DEGREE F CRITERIA/. CONCURRENTLY THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE DIVING SE TOWARDS
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILST ITS ASSOCIATED SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NRN TX PANHANDLE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXHIBITED NORTH OF THE
FA...THOUGH A SWRD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO OUR NRN
ZONES AND PERHAPS PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SAID LOCALES
TOMORROW AFTN...WITH POPS INCREASING MORE SO AFTER THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD /TOMORROW EVENING-TOMORROW NIGHT/ AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. FURTHERMORE...DUE TO S-SE SFC WINDS...TEMPS TOMORROW
WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 90S TO
LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THOSE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LATE THIS
PAST WEEK. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO INITIATE
MONDAY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT EXTENT AND DURATION WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED BY CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LONG-LIVED UPPER RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW STATIONED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
MORE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...HELPING TO BRING STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO INTO THE LONE STAR STATE.

WHILE ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS
TIME...TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT MAY BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AS AN APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
PROVIDES INFLOW INTO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. THE SAME STORY HOLDS
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AS PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MAY BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO APPROACH BY THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WARRANTED. FLOW THEN APPEARS AS
IT WILL VEER TO SOME DEGREE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS PUSHING THE RIDGE BACK EAST COME LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE PRESENT BEGINNING FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  66  86  65 /  10  20  20  30  30
TULIA         66  95  67  85  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  95  67  86  66 /   0  10  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     69  96  69  89  67 /   0  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  97  71  88  68 /   0  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   67  96  70  92  67 /   0  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  97  70  91  68 /   0  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     70 101  72  88  70 /  10  20  20  30  30
SPUR          69  99  73  91  70 /   0  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     74 100  74  94  72 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14
337
FXUS64 KLUB 262045
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN. THE SAID RIDGE HAS FLATTENED A BIT COURTESY
OF AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS SRN MANITOBA. DESPITE THE
DE-AMPLIFICATION...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 24-31 DEGREES C HAS PROVIDED
THE REGION WITH ANOTHER HOT DAY...AS TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK TO UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS OFF THE CAPROCK. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION
AND A NEARBY SFC TROUGH HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO. RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT THE ACTIVITY FROM IMPINGING ON THE CWA LATER THIS
EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE /UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
SW TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/ WITH LOW
CONCERNS OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEING MET...GIVEN ANTICIPATED
HEAT INDICES AOA 100 DEGREES F ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS /WHICH IS BELOW THE 105 DEGREE F CRITERIA/. CONCURRENTLY THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE DIVING SE TOWARDS
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILST ITS ASSOCIATED SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NRN TX PANHANDLE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXHIBITED NORTH OF THE
FA...THOUGH A SWRD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO OUR NRN
ZONES AND PERHAPS PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SAID LOCALES
TOMORROW AFTN...WITH POPS INCREASING MORE SO AFTER THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD /TOMORROW EVENING-TOMORROW NIGHT/ AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. FURTHERMORE...DUE TO S-SE SFC WINDS...TEMPS TOMORROW
WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 90S TO
LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THOSE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LATE THIS
PAST WEEK. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO INITIATE
MONDAY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT EXTENT AND DURATION WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED BY CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LONG-LIVED UPPER RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW STATIONED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
MORE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...HELPING TO BRING STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO INTO THE LONE STAR STATE.

WHILE ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS
TIME...TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT MAY BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AS AN APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
PROVIDES INFLOW INTO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. THE SAME STORY HOLDS
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AS PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MAY BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO APPROACH BY THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WARRANTED. FLOW THEN APPEARS AS
IT WILL VEER TO SOME DEGREE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS PUSHING THE RIDGE BACK EAST COME LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE PRESENT BEGINNING FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  66  86  65 /  10  20  20  30  30
TULIA         66  95  67  85  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  95  67  86  66 /   0  10  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     69  96  69  89  67 /   0  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  97  71  88  68 /   0  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   67  96  70  92  67 /   0  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  97  70  91  68 /   0  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     70 101  72  88  70 /  10  20  20  30  30
SPUR          69  99  73  91  70 /   0  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     74 100  74  94  72 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/31
603
FXUS64 KLUB 261717
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BREEZY
SRLY WINDS THIS AFTN WILL DECLINE A BIT OVERNIGHT /10-12 KTS/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS PROVIDING ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY AND WARM EVENING/NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND PROGGED 700/850 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST COMPARABLE HIGHS TO YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. LUBBOCK WILL TOP OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK...PERHAPS HITTING 100 DEGREES FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A
ROW AND 7TH IN 2014. ANY APPRECIABLE STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE OUTFLOW AIDED FRONT AND SLIM
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A FRONT MOVING THROUGH NE NM AND THE
TX PANHANDLE. UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE LACKING AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG
THE ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
WE/LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH. MONDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE CWA WHILE
UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO NW AND BRINGS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE IN THIS REGIME BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL-DEFINED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY KEEP ACTIVITY
WIDELY SCATTERED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT SHOWER COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET STRENGTHS OVER THE
STALLING BOUNDARY...AND WE HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FALL AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
WASH OUT THOUGH AND OUR CWA IS CURRENTLY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
PRIMARY QPF SIGNAL IN THE MED-RANGE GUIDANCE. STILL...WITH HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS AND NW FLOW /ALBEIT WEAK/ ALOFT...IT WOULD BE
SURPRISING IF WE DID NOT SEE SOME ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
LIKELY FOUND ACROSS OUR NRN AND NE ZONES. ON WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE TSTM
COMPLEX ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS /FROM SW KS THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLA/...WHICH APPEARS TO BE FORCED BY A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW. THE ECMWF IS SHARPER WITH THIS WAVE AND
BRINGS ANOTHER COOL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AS DRIER LOW-LVL AIR
WORKS IN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
INTO FRIDAY AND THUS GENERATES QPF OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADLY PAINT SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURS AND
EXTEND THEM INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  94  67  88  66 /  10  20  20  30  40
TULIA         67  95  68  87  67 /  10  20  20  30  40
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     69  96  70  92  68 /  10  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  97  73  91  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   69  97  71  94  68 /  10  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    69  98  71  94  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     74 101  73  91  71 /  10  10  20  30  40
SPUR          71  98  74  93  71 /   0  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     74 100  75  96  73 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
689
FXUS64 KLUB 261137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY/TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS PROVIDING ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY AND WARM EVENING/NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND PROGGED 700/850 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST COMPARABLE HIGHS TO YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. LUBBOCK WILL TOP OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK...PERHAPS HITTING 100 DEGREES FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A
ROW AND 7TH IN 2014. ANY APPRECIABLE STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE OUTFLOW AIDED FRONT AND SLIM
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A FRONT MOVING THROUGH NE NM AND THE
TX PANHANDLE. UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE LACKING AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG
THE ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
WE/LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH. MONDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE CWA WHILE
UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO NW AND BRINGS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE IN THIS REGIME BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL-DEFINED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY KEEP ACTIVITY
WIDELY SCATTERED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT SHOWER COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET STRENGTHS OVER THE
STALLING BOUNDARY...AND WE HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FALL AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
WASH OUT THOUGH AND OUR CWA IS CURRENTLY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
PRIMARY QPF SIGNAL IN THE MED-RANGE GUIDANCE. STILL...WITH HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS AND NW FLOW /ALBEIT WEAK/ ALOFT...IT WOULD BE
SURPRISING IF WE DID NOT SEE SOME ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
LIKELY FOUND ACROSS OUR NRN AND NE ZONES. ON WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE TSTM
COMPLEX ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS /FROM SW KS THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLA/...WHICH APPEARS TO BE FORCED BY A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW. THE ECMWF IS SHARPER WITH THIS WAVE AND
BRINGS ANOTHER COOL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AS DRIER LOW-LVL AIR
WORKS IN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
INTO FRIDAY AND THUS GENERATES QPF OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADLY PAINT SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURS AND
EXTEND THEM INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       100  65  94  67  88 /   0  10  20  20  30
TULIA         96  67  95  68  87 /   0  10  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     95  67  95  68  88 /   0  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     98  69  96  70  92 /   0  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK      100  71  97  72  91 /   0  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   99  69  97  71  94 /   0  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    99  69  98  71  94 /   0  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS    103  74 101  73  91 /   0  10  10  20  30
SPUR         101  71  98  74  93 /   0   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT    103  74 100  75  96 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
064
FXUS64 KLUB 260859
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
359 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS PROVIDING ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY AND WARM EVENING/NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND PROGGED 700/850 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST COMPARABLE HIGHS TO YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. LUBBOCK WILL TOP OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK...PERHAPS HITTING 100 DEGREES FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A
ROW AND 7TH IN 2014. ANY APPRECIABLE STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE OUTFLOW AIDED FRONT AND SLIM
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A FRONT MOVING THROUGH NE NM AND THE
TX PANHANDLE. UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE LACKING AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG
THE ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
WE/LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH. MONDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE CWA WHILE
UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO NW AND BRINGS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE IN THIS REGIME BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL-DEFINED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY KEEP ACTIVITY
WIDELY SCATTERED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT SHOWER COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET STRENGTHS OVER THE
STALLING BOUNDARY...AND WE HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FALL AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
WASH OUT THOUGH AND OUR CWA IS CURRENTLY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
PRIMARY QPF SIGNAL IN THE MED-RANGE GUIDANCE. STILL...WITH HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS AND NW FLOW /ALBEIT WEAK/ ALOFT...IT WOULD BE
SURPRISING IF WE DID NOT SEE SOME ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
LIKELY FOUND ACROSS OUR NRN AND NE ZONES. ON WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE TSTM
COMPLEX ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS /FROM SW KS THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLA/...WHICH APPEARS TO BE FORCED BY A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW. THE ECMWF IS SHARPER WITH THIS WAVE AND
BRINGS ANOTHER COOL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AS DRIER LOW-LVL AIR
WORKS IN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
INTO FRIDAY AND THUS GENERATES QPF OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADLY PAINT SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURS AND
EXTEND THEM INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       100  65  94  67  88 /   0  10  20  20  30
TULIA         96  67  95  68  87 /   0  10  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     95  67  95  68  88 /   0  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     98  69  96  70  92 /   0  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       99  71  97  73  91 /   0  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   99  69  97  71  94 /   0  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    99  69  98  71  94 /   0  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS    103  74 101  73  91 /   0  10  10  20  30
SPUR         101  71  98  74  93 /   0   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT    103  74 100  75  96 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
895
FXUS64 KLUB 260445
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SUN UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND 20 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  98  66  95  66 /   0   0  10  20  20
TULIA         68  98  68  96  68 /   0   0  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  96  68  96  68 /   0   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     68  99  70  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  99  71  98  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  98  71  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  99  71  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 102  74 102  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          70  99  72 100  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73 102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
399
FXUS64 KLUB 252330
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH SAT TO KEEP VFR CONDS INTACT.
MODEST SLY GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE ALREADY TAPERING OFF...BUT
THESE WILL RESUME BY LATE SAT MRNG MAINLY AT CDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA RIDGE OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
HOT/ABOVE NORMAL HEAT...AS 20Z METARS NOTED TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK...TO UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS OFF THE CAPROCK. COULD SEE TEMPS WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS PEAK HEATING SETTLES IN. GENERALLY LIGHT
S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WERE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS THE
FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SPEEDS
OF 15-20 MPH WERE OCCURRING...COURTESY OF A NEARBY SFC TROUGH THAT
HAS DEEPENED EVER-SO SLIGHTLY. AGITATED CU- FIELDS/SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO...WHICH WERE PROMPTED BY OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. RATHER WEAK SWRLY FLOW MAY
FILTER SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...BUT LIKELY
NOT ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENDURES /SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT
DAYS/.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL ENSUE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS EXPECTED. THESE WARM NOCTURNAL CONDITIONS COULD PUSH HEAT
INDICES TO AOA 100 DEGREES MORE SO ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
/105 DEGREES/. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEAT RELATED
HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY: THE UA RIDGE
WILL PERSIST...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS...STORMS IGNITING ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO MAY TRANSLATE TOWARDS
THE PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN...AND SLIM CHANCES OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ACROSS THE CWA WILL EXIST. FOCUS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO AN UA LOW
TRAVERSING SRN CANADA THAT WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.

LONG TERM...
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE RETROGRADES WEST WITH THE UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SASKATCHEWAN...CARVING OUT A CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS IT CROSSES THE
BORDER INTO THE LAND OF 10000 LAKES SATURDAY EVENING. BEFORE THE
WELCOME SUMMER RELIEF...SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE AND LOCATIONS IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS LIKELY EXPERIENCING TRIPLE DIGITS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM
SECTOR AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FURTHER AIDS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. NOT
EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF COVERAGE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CONTINUED
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGING.

UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND BACK THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT. PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 1.5-2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO HIGHER
RAINFALL CHANCES. WHILE THE TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS JUNCTURE...INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO LATE TUESDAY ALONG WITH HINTS OF ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WITH THE CEMENTED MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SET OFF A MORE
WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF
AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX. WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD THEN PRESENT ANOTHER
APPRECIABLE OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS AHEAD OF A DOSE OF UPPER SUPPORT.
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL THEN DICTATE
CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK...BUT WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WEEK LOOKING TO OCCUR THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE CURRENTLY PROGGED
VEERING FLOW ALOFT...WOULD THINK PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE ON THE
DECLINE AND BEGIN FOCUSING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AS MONSOONAL FLOW
RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  98  66  95  66 /   0   0  10  20  20
TULIA         68  98  68  96  68 /   0   0  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  96  68  96  68 /   0   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     68  99  70  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  99  71  98  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  98  71  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  99  71  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 102  74 102  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          70  99  72 100  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73 102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
590
FXUS64 KLUB 252036
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
336 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA RIDGE OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
HOT/ABOVE NORMAL HEAT...AS 20Z METARS NOTED TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK...TO UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS OFF THE CAPROCK. COULD SEE TEMPS WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS PEAK HEATING SETTLES IN. GENERALLY LIGHT
S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WERE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS THE
FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SPEEDS
OF 15-20 MPH WERE OCCURRING...COURTESY OF A NEARBY SFC TROUGH THAT
HAS DEEPENED EVER-SO SLIGHTLY. AGITATED CU- FIELDS/SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO...WHICH WERE PROMPTED BY OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. RATHER WEAK SWRLY FLOW MAY
FILTER SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...BUT LIKELY
NOT ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENDURES /SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT
DAYS/.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL ENSUE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS EXPECTED. THESE WARM NOCTURNAL CONDITIONS COULD PUSH HEAT
INDICES TO AOA 100 DEGREES MORE SO ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
/105 DEGREES/. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEAT RELATED
HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY: THE UA RIDGE
WILL PERSIST...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS...STORMS IGNITING ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO MAY TRANSLATE TOWARDS
THE PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN...AND SLIM CHANCES OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ACROSS THE CWA WILL EXIST. FOCUS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO AN UA LOW
TRAVERSING SRN CANADA THAT WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE RETROGRADES WEST WITH THE UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SASKATCHEWAN...CARVING OUT A CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS IT CROSSES THE
BORDER INTO THE LAND OF 10000 LAKES SATURDAY EVENING. BEFORE THE
WELCOME SUMMER RELIEF...SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE AND LOCATIONS IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS LIKELY EXPERIENCING TRIPLE DIGITS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM
SECTOR AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FURTHER AIDS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. NOT
EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF COVERAGE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CONTINUED
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGING.

UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND BACK THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT. PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 1.5-2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO HIGHER
RAINFALL CHANCES. WHILE THE TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS JUNCTURE...INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO LATE TUESDAY ALONG WITH HINTS OF ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WITH THE CEMENTED MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SET OFF A MORE
WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF
AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX. WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD THEN PRESENT ANOTHER
APPRECIABLE OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS AHEAD OF A DOSE OF UPPER SUPPORT.
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL THEN DICTATE
CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK...BUT WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WEEK LOOKING TO OCCUR THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE CURRENTLY PROGGED
VEERING FLOW ALOFT...WOULD THINK PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE ON THE
DECLINE AND BEGIN FOCUSING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AS MONSOONAL FLOW
RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  98  66  95  66 /   0   0  10  20  20
TULIA         68  98  68  96  68 /   0   0  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  96  68  96  68 /   0   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     68  99  70  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  99  71  98  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  98  71  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  99  71  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 102  74 102  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          70  99  72 100  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73 102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/31
820
FXUS64 KLUB 251722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SURFACE WINDS /10-12
KTS/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEST TEXAS WEATHER
TODAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF THE MID-SUMMER HEAT. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND 850/700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN
ON THURSDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE CAPROCK...WITH 100 TO 104
DEGREES COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. AS HAS OCCURRED THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS HEAT AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO FORCE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LATE DAY
SHOWER...THOUGH COVERAGE AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY LOW...WITH POPS
UNDER 5 PERCENT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE 70S EAST. THIS TOASTY PATTERN DOES RAISE CONCERN FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES...THOUGH IT APPEARS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD
OF 105 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE
PROGGING THE WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPS DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE FOUND...HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AIR TEMP AND WE
DON/T EXPECT ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. ON
SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE MIDWEST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPARK
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SRN COLO AND NRN NM. INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT MAY DIRECT SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SEWD INTO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT PROGRESSION IS UNCERTAIN. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
MODEST DROP IN TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FRONT /HOPEFULLY/ IN THE
AREA AND BETTER MID-LVL INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE WEST. IN GENERAL...OUR CWA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TUES THROUGH
THURS...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD.
THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR HOWEVER. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
STRONG PREFERENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING
FROM SRN COLO...SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...INTO WRN OKLA AND THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUTS OUR NE ZONES IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR
RAIN...WITH CHANCES TAPERING DOWN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS WED NIGHT...TIED TO A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. IF THIS OCCURS...IT MAY DRIVE
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. BY LATE
WEEK...GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BACK ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN. THE BEST
FOCUS FOR RAIN IN THIS PATTEN MAY BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT
UPPER-FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME ACTIVITY EASTWARD
INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER MAXING OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE THEM GRADUALLY FALLING BACK THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THU MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 80S. IN THE FORECAST PATTERN WE WOULD USUALLY EXPECT ONLY A
GRADUAL...MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  98  66  95  65 /   0  10  10  20  20
TULIA         68  98  68  96  67 /   0  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     68  97  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     68  99  67  97  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  99  71  98  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  98  68  97  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  99  69  98  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 102  73 102  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          71  99  71 100  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     74 102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
571
FXUS64 KLUB 251125
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEST TEXAS WEATHER
TODAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF THE MID-SUMMER HEAT. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND 850/700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN
ON THURSDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE CAPROCK...WITH 100 TO 104
DEGREES COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. AS HAS OCCURRED THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS HEAT AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO FORCE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LATE DAY
SHOWER...THOUGH COVERAGE AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY LOW...WITH POPS
UNDER 5 PERCENT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE 70S EAST. THIS TOASTY PATTERN DOES RAISE CONCERN FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES...THOUGH IT APPEARS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD
OF 105 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE
PROGGING THE WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPS DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE FOUND...HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AIR TEMP AND WE
DON/T EXPECT ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. ON
SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE MIDWEST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPARK
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SRN COLO AND NRN NM. INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT MAY DIRECT SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SEWD INTO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT PROGRESSION IS UNCERTAIN. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
MODEST DROP IN TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FRONT /HOPEFULLY/ IN THE
AREA AND BETTER MID-LVL INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE WEST. IN GENERAL...OUR CWA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TUES THROUGH
THURS...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD.
THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR HOWEVER. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
STRONG PREFERENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING
FROM SRN COLO...SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...INTO WRN OKLA AND THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUTS OUR NE ZONES IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR
RAIN...WITH CHANCES TAPERING DOWN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS WED NIGHT...TIED TO A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. IF THIS OCCURS...IT MAY DRIVE
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. BY LATE
WEEK...GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BACK ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN. THE BEST
FOCUS FOR RAIN IN THIS PATTEN MAY BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT
UPPER-FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME ACTIVITY EASTWARD
INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER MAXING OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE THEM GRADUALLY FALLING BACK THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THU MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 80S. IN THE FORECAST PATTERN WE WOULD USUALLY EXPECT ONLY A
GRADUAL...MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        98  67  98  66  95 /   0   0  10  10  20
TULIA         96  68  98  68  96 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  97  68  96 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     98  68  99  67  97 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK      100  71  99  71  98 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   99  68  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    99  69  99  69  98 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          98  71  99  71 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    100  74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
262
FXUS64 KLUB 250904
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEST TEXAS WEATHER
TODAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF THE MID-SUMMER HEAT. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND 850/700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN
ON THURSDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE CAPROCK...WITH 100 TO 104
DEGREES COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. AS HAS OCCURRED THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS HEAT AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO FORCE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LATE DAY
SHOWER...THOUGH COVERAGE AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY LOW...WITH POPS
UNDER 5 PERCENT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE 70S EAST. THIS TOASTY PATTERN DOES RAISE CONCERN FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES...THOUGH IT APPEARS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD
OF 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE
PROGGING THE WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPS DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE FOUND...HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AIR TEMP AND WE
DON/T EXPECT ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. ON
SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE MIDWEST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPARK
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SRN COLO AND NRN NM. INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT MAY DIRECT SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SEWD INTO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT PROGRESSION IS UNCERTAIN. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
MODEST DROP IN TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FRONT /HOPEFULLY/ IN THE
AREA AND BETTER MID-LVL INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE WEST. IN GENERAL...OUR CWA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TUES THROUGH
THURS...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD.
THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR HOWEVER. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
STRONG PREFERENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING
FROM SRN COLO...SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...INTO WRN OKLA AND THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUTS OUR NE ZONES IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR
RAIN...WITH CHANCES TAPERING DOWN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS WED NIGHT...TIED TO A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. IF THIS OCCURS...IT MAY DRIVE
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. BY LATE
WEEK...GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BACK ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN. THE BEST
FOCUS FOR RAIN IN THIS PATTEN MAY BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT
UPPER-FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME ACTIVITY EASTWARD
INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER MAXING OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE THEM GRADUALLY FALLING BACK THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THU MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 80S. IN THE FORECAST PATTERN WE WOULD USUALLY EXPECT ONLY A
GRADUAL...MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        98  67  98  66  95 /   0   0  10  10  20
TULIA         96  68  98  68  96 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  97  68  96 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     98  68  99  67  97 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK      100  72  99  71  98 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   99  68  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    99  69  99  69  98 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          98  71  99  71 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    100  74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
783
FXUS64 KLUB 250430
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP VFR AND SKC CONDS
INTACT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AOB 11 KNOTS WILL VEER
FROM SE TO SW BY DAYBREAK BEFORE BACKING SELY AROUND 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  98  66  98  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  96  68  98  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  67  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  97  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    68  98  68  99  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72 100  72 102  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          70  99  69  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72 102  73 102  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
607
FXUS64 KLUB 242333
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
633 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTD VFR WITH LIGHT SELY WINDS VEERING S-SW AFTER 06Z. PRESENTLY
JUST A FEW SMALL SHRA/TSRA ARE FOUND ABOUT 40S LBB MOVG W...BUT
THESE WILL DECAY BY SUNSET AND NOT AFFECT THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z UPA DATA SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL
JUST A BIT COMPARED TO THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.  DECENT CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  WITH THE RIDGE ON TOP OF US RESULTING IN
SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TOO FAR WEST AND EAST OF US...IT
APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE SLIM TO NONE.
RUC/HRRR/AND ARW-WEST ARE ALL STILL TRYING TO GENERATE SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM/GFS/TTU WRF KEEP THINGS DRY.
WILL GO WITH NO POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR MORNING LOWS FRIDAY.  HIGHS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
OVERDOING TEMPS BY 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.  VERIFICATION
NUMBERS SHOW THAT BY FAR THE BEST PERFORMING FIELDS FOR TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN EITHER THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW OR WEIGHTED MODEL
FIELDS AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE WEIGHTED MODELS FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW.  THIS KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE CAPROCK
WITH 99 TO 102 FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAY START OFF HOT AND DRY...BUT WILL END
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT AS COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE UA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED COURTESY OF AN UA LOW
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. DESPITE A
FLATTER UA RIDGE...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 27-32 DEGREES C SUGGEST HOT
TEMPS WILL ENDURE /UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS/.
RELATIVELY WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE UA RIDGE AND AID TO
IGNITE STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE PRECIP ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEARING THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE BY THE EVENING...THOUGH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND ERN NEW
MEXICO.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW WILL
DIVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THUS CAUSING THE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. AS SUCH...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHARPEN. THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER IN SHOWING THIS EVOLUTION AND AS A
RESULT...IS QUICKER IN DEPICTING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND ARE A TAD SLOWER ON ALL COUNTS...THEREBY SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIP IMPINGING ON THE FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HENCE...A FEW DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE HASHED OUT.
NONETHELESS...A COOLER AND WETTER TREND IS STILL BEING EXHIBITED
NEXT WEEK...AS MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS NEW MEXICO COULD
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A COLD PASSAGE. FURTHERMORE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS BEING
DEPICTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH PWATS ENDURING ABOVE 1.00
INCH...ADDITIONAL RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS COMMENCING SUNDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  98  66  98  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  96  68  98  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  67  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  97  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    68  98  68  99  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72 100  72 102  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          70  99  69  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72 102  73 102  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
939
FXUS64 KLUB 242014
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z UPA DATA SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL
JUST A BIT COMPARED TO THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.  DECENT CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  WITH THE RIDGE ON TOP OF US RESULTING IN
SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TOO FAR WEST AND EAST OF US...IT
APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE SLIM TO NONE.
RUC/HRRR/AND ARW-WEST ARE ALL STILL TRYING TO GENERATE SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM/GFS/TTU WRF KEEP THINGS DRY.
WILL GO WITH NO POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR MORNING LOWS FRIDAY.  HIGHS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
OVERDOING TEMPS BY 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.  VERIFICATION
NUMBERS SHOW THAT BY FAR THE BEST PERFORMING FIELDS FOR TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN EITHER THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW OR WEIGHTED MODEL
FIELDS AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE WEIGHTED MODELS FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW.  THIS KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE CAPROCK
WITH 99 TO 102 FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAY START OFF HOT AND DRY...BUT WILL END
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT AS COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE UA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED COURTESY OF AN UA LOW
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. DESPITE A
FLATTER UA RIDGE...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 27-32 DEGREES C SUGGEST HOT
TEMPS WILL ENDURE /UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS/.
RELATIVELY WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE UA RIDGE AND AID TO
IGNITE STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE PRECIP ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEARING THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE BY THE EVENING...THOUGH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND ERN NEW
MEXICO.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW WILL
DIVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THUS CAUSING THE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. AS SUCH...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHARPEN. THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER IN SHOWING THIS EVOLUTION AND AS A
RESULT...IS QUICKER IN DEPICTING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND ARE A TAD SLOWER ON ALL COUNTS...THEREBY SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIP IMPINGING ON THE FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HENCE...A FEW DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE HASHED OUT.
NONETHELESS...A COOLER AND WETTER TREND IS STILL BEING EXHIBITED
NEXT WEEK...AS MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS NEW MEXICO COULD
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A COLD PASSAGE. FURTHERMORE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS BEING
DEPICTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH PWATS ENDURING ABOVE 1.00
INCH...ADDITIONAL RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS COMMENCING SUNDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  98  66  98  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  96  68  98  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  67  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  97  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    68  98  68  99  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72 100  72 102  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          70  99  69  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72 102  73 102  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29
173
FXUS64 KLUB 241738 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
SLIM CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE KLBB TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND AMEND IF NECESSARY.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN NM AND SRN COLO WILL
TEND TO ELONGATE E-W TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD STRETCHING FROM SRN OKLA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH TODAY...SKIRTING OUR SRN ZONES. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST BUT
PERHAPS NOT ALL CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE
SEEMS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO
ABOUT 102 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE
UNLIKELY...SPECIFICALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BUT LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THESE SHORT WAVES.
FURTHERMORE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION
TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND AMPLIFIES.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING TREND DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAY BE ERASED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NEXT WEEK. EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL DOES LOOK WETTER AND COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  97  66  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         94  68  98  69  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  68  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     95  68 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  70 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   96  68 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  69 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  73 104  73 103 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 104  74 103 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
089
FXUS64 KLUB 241220
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
720 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN NM AND SRN COLO WILL
TEND TO ELONGATE E-W TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD STRETCHING FROM SRN OKLA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH TODAY...SKIRTING OUR SRN ZONES. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST BUT
PERHAPS NOT ALL CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE
SEEMS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO
ABOUT 102 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE
UNLIKELY...SPECIFICALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BUT LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THESE SHORT WAVES.
FURTHERMORE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION
TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND AMPLIFIES.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING TREND DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAY BE ERASED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NEXT WEEK. EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL DOES LOOK WETTER AND COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  97  66  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         94  68  98  69  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  68  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     95  68 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  70 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   96  68 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  69 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  73 104  73 103 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 104  74 103 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
064
FXUS64 KLUB 240856
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
356 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN NM AND SRN COLO WILL
TEND TO ELONGATE E-W TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD STRETCHING FROM SRN OKLA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH TODAY...SKIRTING OUR SRN ZONES. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST BUT
PERHAPS NOT ALL CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE
SEEMS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO
ABOUT 102 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE
UNLIKELY...SPECIFICALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BUT LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THESE SHORT WAVES.
FURTHERMORE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION
TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND AMPLIFIES.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING TREND DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAY BE ERASED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NEXT WEEK. EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL DOES LOOK WETTER AND COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  97  66  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         94  68  98  69  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  68  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     95  68 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  70 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   96  68 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  69 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  73 104  73 103 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 104  74 103 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01
829
FXUS64 KLUB 240449
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTD VFR AND MOSTLY SKC AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS TO REMAIN S-SE AOB 11 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         68  96  69  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  97  69 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  97  69 101  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74 100  74 105  73 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          71  98  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 103  74 105  74 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
918
FXUS64 KLUB 232341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR AND MOSTLY SKC THRU THU EVNG AS A DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 10K FEET AGL SETTLES OVER THE REGION. ELY WINDS
THIS EVNG WILL VEER SLY BY DAYBREAK AND REMAIN AOB 11 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THINGS ARE QUITE A BIT QUIETER TODAY COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS PUT THE KIBOSH ON ANY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  CU FIELD IS MUCH LESS ROBUST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL...ALSO INDICATING SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION.  EVEN WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT CLIMBED AS MUCH AS COULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE AS WEAK EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW HAS HELPED TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT TOO MUCH.
THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL RESULTING IN
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THANKS TO AN
OPPRESSIVE /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ UA RIDGE...WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH
IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. THESE SCORCHING DAYTIME TEMPS
FOLLOWED BY RATHER WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ COULD NEAR
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...THOUGH
HEAT INDICES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ATTM. A FEW
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO DURING THE SAID PERIOD. STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FA DUE TO RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SHOW THE UA RIDGE COMMENCING TO RETROGRADE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS PROMOTING WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
PLAUSIBILITY OF STORMS TO TRANSLATE FROM NE NEW MEXICO TO
NEAR/ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN UA LOW SYSTEM THAT WILL PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK...THEN SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT...HENCE SHOVING THE UA RIDGE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE NW FLOW ALOFT TO SHARPEN. THE UA LOW/S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND
BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
AS SUCH COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S BY MONDAY/.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WHILST SFC
WINDS VEER TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. THIS COULD FURTHER
AID IN ENDURING STORM CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY/. MEX GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD. THUS...THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT WEEK APPEARS APPROPRIATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         68  96  69  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  97  69 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74 100  74 105  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          71  98  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 103  74 105  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
843
FXUS64 KLUB 232038
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THINGS ARE QUITE A BIT QUIETER TODAY COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS PUT THE KIBOSH ON ANY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  CU FIELD IS MUCH LESS ROBUST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL...ALSO INDICATING SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION.  EVEN WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT CLIMBED AS MUCH AS COULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE AS WEAK EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW HAS HELPED TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT TOO MUCH.
THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL RESULTING IN
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THANKS TO AN
OPPRESSIVE /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ UA RIDGE...WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH
IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. THESE SCORCHING DAYTIME TEMPS
FOLLOWED BY RATHER WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ COULD NEAR
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...THOUGH
HEAT INDICES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ATTM. A FEW
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO DURING THE SAID PERIOD. STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FA DUE TO RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SHOW THE UA RIDGE COMMENCING TO RETROGRADE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS PROMOTING WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
PLAUSIBILITY OF STORMS TO TRANSLATE FROM NE NEW MEXICO TO
NEAR/ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN UA LOW SYSTEM THAT WILL PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK...THEN SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT...HENCE SHOVING THE UA RIDGE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE NW FLOW ALOFT TO SHARPEN. THE UA LOW/S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND
BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
AS SUCH COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S BY MONDAY/.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WHILST SFC
WINDS VEER TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. THIS COULD FURTHER
AID IN ENDURING STORM CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY/. MEX GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD. THUS...THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT WEEK APPEARS APPROPRIATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         68  96  69  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  97  69 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71 102  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74 100  74 105  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          71  98  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 103  74 105  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29
339
FXUS64 KLUB 231740 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1240 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
600DM UPPER UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER SRN COLO
TODAY...KEEPING OUR CWA IN MODEST NE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL E-SE
FLOW. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER WTX...AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE MIGRATES TO THE SW AROUND THE HIGH. THUS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY
AS YESTERDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO
SOUTHERN NM...CUTTING ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. ALSO OF SOME INTEREST IS
MODEL PROJECTIONS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING WEST OR SW
ACROSS OKLA AND POSSIBLY NEARING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR RED RIVER VLY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS UNFAVORABLY TIMED TO REACH
OUR CWA HOWEVER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE
COOLING/STABILIZING BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH. TEMP-WISE...WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THINKING CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT TEMPS MUCH. TEMPS MAY EDGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YSTDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND
NEAR 100 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD ALIGN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPS AS SFC DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT
MORE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LONG TERM NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN. IN THE
MEANTIME...HEIGHTS THIS WEEK WILL DECREASE WITH A FLATTENING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FROM A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THICKNESS VALUES WILL RISE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE LOOK TO BREAK 100 DEGREES. AT THE
MOMENT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET
ALTHOUGH WILL COME CLOSE BOTH OF THESE AFTERNOONS.

WE STILL START TO SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AS
THE FLATTENED RIDGE MOVES BACK WEST. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE
OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GENERATING CONVECTION
OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL TAKE SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE MAKE A PATTERN CHANGE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT TO THE AREA EITHER ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND STALL OUT FOR A
FEW DAYS. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN ANY SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR
TIMING ON ANY SHORT WAVES BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  65  96  66  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     95  68  96  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     96  68  98  69 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       98  71  98  70 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   96  69  97  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  71  98  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  74 103  73 106 /   0  10   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 100  72 103 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    101  75 104  75 105 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99
545
FXUS64 KLUB 231123
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
600DM UPPER UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER SRN COLO
TODAY...KEEPING OUR CWA IN MODEST NE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL E-SE
FLOW. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER WTX...AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE MIGRATES TO THE SW AROUND THE HIGH. THUS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY
AS YESTERDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO
SOUTHERN NM...CUTTING ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. ALSO OF SOME INTEREST IS
MODEL PROJECTIONS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING WEST OR SW
ACROSS OKLA AND POSSIBLY NEARING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR RED RIVER VLY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS UNFAVORABLY TIMED TO REACH
OUR CWA HOWEVER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE
COOLING/STABILIZING BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH. TEMP-WISE...WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THINKING CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT TEMPS MUCH. TEMPS MAY EDGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YSTDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND
NEAR 100 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD ALIGN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPS AS SFC DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT
MORE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LONG TERM NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN. IN THE
MEANTIME...HEIGHTS THIS WEEK WILL DECREASE WITH A FLATTENING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FROM A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THICKNESS VALUES WILL RISE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE LOOK TO BREAK 100 DEGREES. AT THE
MOMENT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET
ALTHOUGH WILL COME CLOSE BOTH OF THESE AFTERNOONS.

WE STILL START TO SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AS
THE FLATTENED RIDGE MOVES BACK WEST. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE
OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GENERATING CONVECTION
OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL TAKE SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE MAKE A PATTERN CHANGE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT TO THE AREA EITHER ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND STALL OUT FOR A
FEW DAYS. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN ANY SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR
TIMING ON ANY SHORT WAVES BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  65  96  66  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     95  68  96  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     96  68  98  69 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       98  71  98  71 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   96  69  97  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  71  98  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  74 103  73 106 /   0  10   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 100  72 103 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    101  75 104  75 105 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
532
FXUS64 KLUB 230839
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
600DM UPPER UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER SRN COLO
TODAY...KEEPING OUR CWA IN MODEST NE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL E-SE
FLOW. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER WTX...AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE MIGRATES TO THE SW AROUND THE HIGH. THUS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY
AS YESTERDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO
SOUTHERN NM...CUTTING ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. ALSO OF SOME INTEREST IS
MODEL PROJECTIONS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING WEST OR SW
ACROSS OKLA AND POSSIBLY NEARING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR RED RIVER VLY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS UNFAVORABLY TIMED TO REACH
OUR CWA HOWEVER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE
COOLING/STABILIZING BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH. TEMP-WISE...WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THINKING CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT TEMPS MUCH. TEMPS MAY EDGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YSTDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND
NEAR 100 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD ALIGN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPS AS SFC DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT
MORE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LONG TERM NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN. IN THE
MEANTIME...HEIGHTS THIS WEEK WILL DECREASE WITH A FLATTENING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FROM A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THICKNESS VALUES WILL RISE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE LOOK TO BREAK 100 DEGREES. AT THE
MOMENT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET
ALTHOUGH WILL COME CLOSE BOTH OF THESE AFTERNOONS.

WE STILL START TO SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AS
THE FLATTENED RIDGE MOVES BACK WEST. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE
OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GENERATING CONVECTION
OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL TAKE SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE MAKE A PATTERN CHANGE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT TO THE AREA EITHER ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND STALL OUT FOR A
FEW DAYS. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN ANY SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR
TIMING ON ANY SHORT WAVES BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  65  96  66  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     95  68  96  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     96  68  98  69 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       98  71  98  70 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   96  69  97  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  71  98  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  74 103  73 106 /   0  10   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 100  72 103 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    101  75 104  75 105 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01
873
FXUS64 KLUB 230437
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH LBB AND CDS FROM 06Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

UPDATE...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS HAVE DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WEAK REMAINING
CELLS...LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY. MUCH MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY CONTINUES FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED
STORMS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THUS...UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE
MENTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT AT A FEW STORMS
MAY SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND THUS MAINTAINED POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z.
BEYOND THIS TIME...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
HAVE DIMINISHED.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS 00Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
EITHER TERMINAL.

SHORT TERM...
COMBINATION OF THINGS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT WERE
DRAPED ACROSS TWO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE EAST OF LUBBOCK ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND THE OTHER WEST OF LUBBOCK ALONG A
LEVELLAND TO SEAGRAVES LINE.  SECOND THING WAS AMPLE MOISTURE AT
BOTH 850 AND 700 HPA AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LAPSE RATES AT KAMA COMPARED TO KMAF.  THIRD WAS
SEEN IN A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE REMNANTS OF A THE LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLOSER TO HOME WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL LIFT THAT HELPED TO GET STORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TOO FAR NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER
STORMS BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AS WELL.

STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AT 500
HPA LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AROUND 250 HPA.  NORTH TO NORTHEAST 25 KT WIND IS HELPING TO
STEER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS TO
THE WEST AS WELL.  BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG STORMS
WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING AS POCKETS OF AIRMASS ARE STABILIZED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION GENERATED ALONG
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORCING ALOFT MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.  WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH 1 AM FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHICH LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM
FORCING FOR ANY CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER
THE REGION SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH NO CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.  ONLY THING
THAT COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANY REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
BEING PRODUCED BY CURRENT STORMS ARE ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AS IT WILL MORE OR LESS BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UA RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT DURING THE SAID
PERIOD...HOWEVER INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS...WHICH IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. HOT DAYS
FOLLOWED BY WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ DOES
RAISE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CRITERIA.
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS WILL BE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND AID IN IGNITING
STORMS NE OF THE FA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NE NEW MEXICO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH SOLUTIONS HINT AT PERHAPS NON-ZERO CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA LOW WHICH
SKIRTED EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DIVE SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION /THUS NO LONGER
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD/. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. FURTHERMORE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED...THIS WILL AID IN PROPAGATING STORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FA AS HINTED AT BY LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. A LINGERING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  97  67  96  66 /  10   0  10   0   0
TULIA         66  97  68  97  68 /  10   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  96  69  96  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  69  98  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  98  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   70  97  70  97  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  98  70  98  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 101  73 101  73 /  10   0  10   0   0
SPUR          70  98  72 100  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 102  74 102  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99/16
998
FXUS64 KLUB 222348
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WEAK REMAINING
CELLS...LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY. MUCH MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY CONTINUES FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED
STORMS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THUS...UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE MENTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT AT A FEW STORMS MAY SKIRT
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
THUS MAINTAINED POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HAVE
DIMINISHED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS 00Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
EITHER TERMINAL.

SHORT TERM...
COMBINATION OF THINGS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT WERE
DRAPED ACROSS TWO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE EAST OF LUBBOCK ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND THE OTHER WEST OF LUBBOCK ALONG A
LEVELLAND TO SEAGRAVES LINE.  SECOND THING WAS AMPLE MOISTURE AT
BOTH 850 AND 700 HPA AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LAPSE RATES AT KAMA COMPARED TO KMAF.  THIRD WAS
SEEN IN A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE REMNANTS OF A THE LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLOSER TO HOME WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL LIFT THAT HELPED TO GET STORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TOO FAR NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER
STORMS BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AS WELL.

STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AT 500
HPA LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AROUND 250 HPA.  NORTH TO NORTHEAST 25 KT WIND IS HELPING TO
STEER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS TO
THE WEST AS WELL.  BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG STORMS
WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING AS POCKETS OF AIRMASS ARE STABILIZED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION GENERATED ALONG
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORCING ALOFT MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.  WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH 1 AM FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHICH LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM
FORCING FOR ANY CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER
THE REGION SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH NO CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.  ONLY THING
THAT COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANY REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
BEING PRODUCED BY CURRENT STORMS ARE ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AS IT WILL MORE OR LESS BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UA RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT DURING THE SAID
PERIOD...HOWEVER INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS...WHICH IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. HOT DAYS
FOLLOWED BY WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ DOES
RAISE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CRITERIA.
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS WILL BE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND AID IN IGNITING
STORMS NE OF THE FA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NE NEW MEXICO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH SOLUTIONS HINT AT PERHAPS NON-ZERO CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA LOW WHICH
SKIRTED EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DIVE SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION /THUS NO LONGER
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD/. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. FURTHERMORE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED...THIS WILL AID IN PROPAGATING STORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FA AS HINTED AT BY LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. A LINGERING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  97  67  96  66 /  20   0  10   0   0
TULIA         66  97  68  97  68 /  20   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  96  69  96  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  69  98  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  98  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   70  97  70  97  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  98  70  98  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 101  73 101  73 /  10   0  10   0   0
SPUR          70  98  72 100  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 102  74 102  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99
692
FXUS64 KLUB 222303
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
603 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS 00Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COMBINATION OF THINGS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT WERE
DRAPED ACROSS TWO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE EAST OF LUBBOCK ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND THE OTHER WEST OF LUBBOCK ALONG A
LEVELLAND TO SEAGRAVES LINE.  SECOND THING WAS AMPLE MOISTURE AT
BOTH 850 AND 700 HPA AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LAPSE RATES AT KAMA COMPARED TO KMAF.  THIRD WAS
SEEN IN A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE REMNANTS OF A THE LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLOSER TO HOME WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL LIFT THAT HELPED TO GET STORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TOO FAR NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER
STORMS BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AS WELL.

STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AT 500
HPA LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AROUND 250 HPA.  NORTH TO NORTHEAST 25 KT WIND IS HELPING TO
STEER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS TO
THE WEST AS WELL.  BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG STORMS
WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING AS POCKETS OF AIRMASS ARE STABILIZED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION GENERATED ALONG
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORCING ALOFT MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.  WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH 1 AM FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHICH LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM
FORCING FOR ANY CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER
THE REGION SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH NO CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.  ONLY THING
THAT COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANY REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
BEING PRODUCED BY CURRENT STORMS ARE ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AS IT WILL MORE OR LESS BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UA RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT DURING THE SAID
PERIOD...HOWEVER INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS...WHICH IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. HOT DAYS
FOLLOWED BY WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ DOES
RAISE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CRITERIA.
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS WILL BE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND AID IN IGNITING
STORMS NE OF THE FA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NE NEW MEXICO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH SOLUTIONS HINT AT PERHAPS NON-ZERO CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA LOW WHICH
SKIRTED EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DIVE SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION /THUS NO LONGER
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD/. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. FURTHERMORE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED...THIS WILL AID IN PROPAGATING STORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FA AS HINTED AT BY LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. A LINGERING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  97  67  96  66 /  20   0  10   0   0
TULIA         66  97  68  97  68 /  20   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  96  69  96  68 /  20   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  69  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  98  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   70  97  70  97  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  98  70  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 101  73 101  73 /  10   0  10   0   0
SPUR          70  98  72 100  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 102  74 102  75 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16
783
FXUS64 KLUB 222016
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COMBINATION OF THINGS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT WERE
DRAPED ACROSS TWO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE EAST OF LUBBOCK ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND THE OTHER WEST OF LUBBOCK ALONG A
LEVELLAND TO SEAGRAVES LINE.  SECOND THING WAS AMPLE MOISTURE AT
BOTH 850 AND 700 HPA AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LAPSE RATES AT KAMA COMPARED TO KMAF.  THIRD WAS
SEEN IN A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE REMNANTS OF A THE LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLOSER TO HOME WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL LIFT THAT HELPED TO GET STORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TOO FAR NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER
STORMS BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AS WELL.

STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AT 500
HPA LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AROUND 250 HPA.  NORTH TO NORTHEAST 25 KT WIND IS HELPING TO
STEER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS TO
THE WEST AS WELL.  BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG STORMS
WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING AS POCKETS OF AIRMASS ARE STABILIZED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION GENERATED ALONG
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORCING ALOFT MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.  WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH 1 AM FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHICH LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM
FORCING FOR ANY CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER
THE REGION SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH NO CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.  ONLY THING
THAT COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANY REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
BEING PRODUCED BY CURRENT STORMS ARE ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AS IT WILL MORE OR LESS BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UA RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT DURING THE SAID
PERIOD...HOWEVER INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS...WHICH IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. HOT DAYS
FOLLOWED BY WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ DOES
RAISE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CRITERIA.
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS WILL BE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND AID IN IGNITING
STORMS NE OF THE FA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NE NEW MEXICO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH SOLUTIONS HINT AT PERHAPS NON-ZERO CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA LOW WHICH
SKIRTED EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DIVE SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION /THUS NO LONGER
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD/. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. FURTHERMORE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED...THIS WILL AID IN PROPAGATING STORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FA AS HINTED AT BY LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. A LINGERING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  97  67  96  66 /  20   0  10   0   0
TULIA         66  97  68  97  68 /  20   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  96  69  96  68 /  20   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  69  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  98  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   70  97  70  97  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  98  70  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 101  73 101  73 /  10   0  10   0   0
SPUR          70  98  72 100  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 102  74 102  75 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29
336
FXUS64 KLUB 221728 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS THROUGH
TOMORROW. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DYING A SLOW DEATH NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER THIS
MORNING. A VERY WEAK OUTFLOW HAS EDGED THROUGH KLBB WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MODEST SOUTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN LATER TODAY WILL REMAIN WEST OR
NORTHWEST OF BOTH LOCATIONS AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
REMNANT SHOWERS AND CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUE TO BEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THIS REGION HAS HAD MAXIMUM UPPER DIVERGENCE THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO
WHILE A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOOKS LIKE A REAL
POSSIBILITY TO REMAIN NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER INTO THE MIDDAY
HEATING PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWEST AND BUILD
TODAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
UNCHANGED OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBLE MCV MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE STRONG
HEATING SUPPORT ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AT LEAST
SOME PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER OVER ABOUT THE SAME AREA. STEERING
FLOW...HOWEVER...WILL BE TURNED MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SO IF STORM
INITIATION PROVES TO BE MAINLY ON THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE LATER TODAY THEY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY BUILDING INTO WEST
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER THAN RECENT DAYS OWING
TO THE MOISTURE ROLE...TEND TO THINK MOST GUIDANCE IS OVER-PLAYING
COOLING POTENTIAL TODAY GIVEN THE STAGNANT HEIGHT FIELD MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ALOFT. MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING QUITE A BIT OF SUN ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THICKER CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...HOWEVER...CERTAINLY COULD TURN INTO A PROBLEM FOR WARMING.
ANYWAY...WE EDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR...WHILE CLOSELY RETAINING
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TO THE EAST. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE STORMS END
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OUR REGION BEING MORE DISTANT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO OPPRESS THE AREA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ELONGATE AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL WEAKNESSES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LOWER THAN OBSERVED
IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODELS DO AGREE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THESE WEAKNESSES. IT
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH WEST TEXAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AND WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THICKNESSES
WILL RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AROUND
TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AT THE MOMENT...WE LOOK TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
AMPLIFICATION. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES SENDING
DOWN A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS
AND GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE...STORMIER WEATHER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  69  96  68  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  70  95  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  71  97  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  72  97  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   94  72  95  71  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  73  97  72 100 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          99  75  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    102  75 103  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
881
FXUS64 KLUB 221021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DYING A SLOW DEATH NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER THIS
MORNING. A VERY WEAK OUTFLOW HAS EDGED THROUGH KLBB WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MODEST SOUTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN LATER TODAY WILL REMAIN WEST OR
NORTHWEST OF BOTH LOCATIONS AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
REMNANT SHOWERS AND CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUE TO BEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THIS REGION HAS HAD MAXIMUM UPPER DIVERGENCE THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO
WHILE A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOOKS LIKE A REAL
POSSIBILITY TO REMAIN NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER INTO THE MIDDAY
HEATING PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWEST AND BUILD
TODAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
UNCHANGED OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBLE MCV MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE STRONG
HEATING SUPPORT ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AT LEAST
SOME PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER OVER ABOUT THE SAME AREA. STEERING
FLOW...HOWEVER...WILL BE TURNED MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SO IF STORM
INITIATION PROVES TO BE MAINLY ON THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE LATER TODAY THEY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY BUILDING INTO WEST
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER THAN RECENT DAYS OWING
TO THE MOISTURE ROLE...TEND TO THINK MOST GUIDANCE IS OVER-PLAYING
COOLING POTENTIAL TODAY GIVEN THE STAGNANT HEIGHT FIELD MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ALOFT. MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING QUITE A BIT OF SUN ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THICKER CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...HOWEVER...CERTAINLY COULD TURN INTO A PROBLEM FOR WARMING.
ANYWAY...WE EDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR...WHILE CLOSELY RETAINING
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TO THE EAST. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE STORMS END
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OUR REGION BEING MORE DISTANT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO OPPRESS THE AREA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ELONGATE AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL WEAKNESSES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LOWER THAN OBSERVED
IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODELS DO AGREE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THESE WEAKNESSES. IT
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH WEST TEXAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AND WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THICKNESSES
WILL RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AROUND
TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AT THE MOMENT...WE LOOK TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
AMPLIFICATION. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES SENDING
DOWN A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS
AND GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE...STORMIER WEATHER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  69  96  68  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  70  95  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  71  97  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  72  97  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   94  72  95  71  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  73  97  72 100 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          99  75  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    102  75 103  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/99
021
FXUS64 KLUB 220854
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
354 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
REMNANT SHOWERS AND CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUE TO BEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THIS REGION HAS HAD MAXIMUM UPPER DIVERGENCE THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO
WHILE A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOOKS LIKE A REAL
POSSIBILITY TO REMAIN NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER INTO THE MIDDAY
HEATING PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWEST AND BUILD
TODAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
UNCHANGED OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBLE MCV MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE STRONG
HEATING SUPPORT ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AT LEAST
SOME PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER OVER ABOUT THE SAME AREA. STEERING
FLOW...HOWEVER...WILL BE TURNED MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SO IF STORM
INITIATION PROVES TO BE MAINLY ON THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE LATER TODAY THEY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY BUILDING INTO WEST
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER THAN RECENT DAYS OWING
TO THE MOISTURE ROLE...TEND TO THINK MOST GUIDANCE IS OVER-PLAYING
COOLING POTENTIAL TODAY GIVEN THE STAGNANT HEIGHT FIELD MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ALOFT. MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING QUITE A BIT OF SUN ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THICKER CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...HOWEVER...CERTAINLY COULD TURN INTO A PROBLEM FOR WARMING.
ANYWAY...WE EDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR...WHILE CLOSELY RETAINING
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TO THE EAST. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE STORMS END
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OUR REGION BEING MORE DISTANT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO OPPRESS THE AREA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ELONGATE AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL WEAKNESSES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LOWER THAN OBSERVED
IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODELS DO AGREE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THESE WEAKNESSES. IT
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH WEST TEXAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AND WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THICKNESSES
WILL RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AROUND
TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AT THE MOMENT...WE LOOK TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
AMPLIFICATION. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES SENDING
DOWN A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS
AND GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE...STORMIER WEATHER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  69  96  68  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  70  95  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  71  97  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  72  97  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   94  72  95  71  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  73  97  72 100 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          99  75  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    102  75 103  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/01
769
FXUS64 KLUB 220450
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER 20Z
TUESDAY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT LBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO READJUST POPS AND TWEAK SEVERAL OTHER SHORT TERM
GRIDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...A
DECENT LINE OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAS CONGEALED FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE WAS GENERALLY
EDGING EASTWARD...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
CLOVIS AND BOOTLEG. THIS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY...AND WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE
20-30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND ASIDE
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE OUTFLOW...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
IS LACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE
CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED AND DEVELOP IS IN QUESTION.
HENCE...WE HAVE REORIENTED THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT A 15-25
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE REMOVING THE ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. IF STORMS CAN
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PWATS AROUND 1.3
INCHES COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...WE DID TWEAK THE
DEWPOINT...TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN PROGRESS ACROSS LEA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH PORTIONS OF
BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES FOLLOWING SUIT AS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGING WITHIN A THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY
POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TAPER OFF
DIURNALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ANEMIC UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME SPOTS IN BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR MOST.

TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO TODAY...WARM START WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREMENTALLY HOTTER DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF MORE COVERAGE...BUT SIMILAR TO
TODAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.

LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN BUT DESPITE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...VERY HUMID AIR
REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OF STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VORTICITY
LOBE ROTATING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT/POTENTIAL. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGE LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AND EVEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NW FLOW RETURNING. STILL VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH IN THE 90S TO NEAR 104 IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT
ADVISORY NEEDED ATTM. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY HOWEVER.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
ECMWF (00Z RUN) KEEPS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NE NM WHILE GFS MOVES UPPER
HIGH BACK TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW. WITHOUT AN UPDATED ECMWF RUN TO VERIFY...BASED THIS FCST ON
12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER NW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGH...WOULD INCREASE IN THAT SCENARIO...AND BUMPED UP POPS AND
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THAT TIME FRAME. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  67  96  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         71  96  69  98  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  95  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     72  97  71  99  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  98  71  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   72  96  72  97  71 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73  97  73  98  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 100  73 103  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          74  98  73 101  73 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     75 103  75 103  75 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16
577
FXUS64 KLUB 220226 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
926 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO READJUST POPS AND TWEAK SEVERAL OTHER SHORT TERM
GRIDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...A
DECENT LINE OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAS CONGEALED FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE WAS GENERALLY
EDGING EASTWARD...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
CLOVIS AND BOOTLEG. THIS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY...AND WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE
20-30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND ASIDE
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE OUTFLOW...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
IS LACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE
CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED AND DEVELOP IS IN QUESTION.
HENCE...WE HAVE REORIENTED THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT A 15-25
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE REMOVING THE ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. IF STORMS CAN
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PWATS AROUND 1.3
INCHES COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...WE DID TWEAK THE
DEWPOINT...TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER 20Z TUESDAY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT LBB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN PROGRESS ACROSS LEA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH PORTIONS OF
BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES FOLLOWING SUIT AS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGING WITHIN A THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY
POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TAPER OFF
DIURNALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ANEMIC UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME SPOTS IN BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR MOST.

TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO TODAY...WARM START WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREMENTALLY HOTTER DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF MORE COVERAGE...BUT SIMILAR TO
TODAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.

LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN BUT DESPITE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...VERY HUMID AIR
REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OF STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VORTICITY
LOBE ROTATING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT/POTENTIAL. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGE LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AND EVEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NW FLOW RETURNING. STILL VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH IN THE 90S TO NEAR 104 IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT
ADVISORY NEEDED ATTM. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY HOWEVER.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
ECMWF (00Z RUN) KEEPS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NE NM WHILE GFS MOVES UPPER
HIGH BACK TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW. WITHOUT AN UPDATED ECMWF RUN TO VERIFY...BASED THIS FCST ON
12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER NW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGH...WOULD INCREASE IN THAT SCENARIO...AND BUMPED UP POPS AND
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THAT TIME FRAME. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  67  96  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         71  96  69  98  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  95  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     72  97  71  99  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  98  71  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   72  96  72  97  71 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73  97  73  98  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 100  73 103  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          74  98  73 101  73 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     75 103  75 103  75 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/23
005
FXUS64 KLUB 212307
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
607 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER 20Z TUESDAY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT LBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN PROGRESS ACROSS LEA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH PORTIONS OF
BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES FOLLOWING SUIT AS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGING WITHIN A THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY
POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TAPER OFF
DIURNALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ANEMIC UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME SPOTS IN BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR MOST.

TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO TODAY...WARM START WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREMENTALLY HOTTER DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF MORE COVERAGE...BUT SIMILAR TO
TODAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.

LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN BUT DESPITE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...VERY HUMID AIR
REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OF STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VORTICITY
LOBE ROTATING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT/POTENTIAL. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGE LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AND EVEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NW FLOW RETURNING. STILL VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH IN THE 90S TO NEAR 104 IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT
ADVISORY NEEDED ATTM. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY HOWEVER.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
ECMWF (00Z RUN) KEEPS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NE NM WHILE GFS MOVES UPPER
HIGH BACK TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW. WITHOUT AN UPDATED ECMWF RUN TO VERIFY...BASED THIS FCST ON
12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER NW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGH...WOULD INCREASE IN THAT SCENARIO...AND BUMPED UP POPS AND
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THAT TIME FRAME. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  67  96  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         71  96  69  98  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  95  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     72  97  71  99  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  98  71  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   72  96  72  97  71 /  20  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73  97  73  98  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 100  73 103  73 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          74  98  73 101  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     75 103  75 103  75 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16
803
FXUS64 KLUB 212041
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN PROGRESS ACROSS LEA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH PORTIONS OF
BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES FOLLOWING SUIT AS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGING WITHIN A THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY
POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TAPER OFF
DIURNALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ANEMIC UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME SPOTS IN BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR MOST.

TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO TODAY...WARM START WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREMENTALLY HOTTER DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF MORE COVERAGE...BUT SIMILAR TO
TODAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN BUT DESPITE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...VERY HUMID AIR
REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OF STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VORTICITY
LOBE ROTATING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT/POTENTIAL. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGE LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AND EVEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NW FLOW RETURNING. STILL VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH IN THE 90S TO NEAR 104 IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT
ADVISORY NEEDED ATTM. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY HOWEVER.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
ECMWF (00Z RUN) KEEPS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NE NM WHILE GFS MOVES UPPER
HIGH BACK TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW. WITHOUT AN UPDATED ECMWF RUN TO VERIFY...BASED THIS FCST ON
12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER NW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGH...WOULD INCREASE IN THAT SCENARIO...AND BUMPED UP POPS AND
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THAT TIME FRAME. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  67  96  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         71  96  69  98  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  95  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     72  97  71  99  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  98  72  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   72  96  72  97  71 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73  97  73  98  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 100  73 103  73 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          74  98  73 101  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     75 103  75 103  75 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/06
955
FXUS64 KLUB 211733
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER
LATER THIS EVENING...WELL TO THE WEST OF KCDS AND KLBB...WE WILL
SEE SOME CU DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE WILL SEE CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES TODAY UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN POSITIONED WELL INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL BE CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TRY TO INITIATE WITHIN THIS TROUGH AXIS ALTHOUGH THE
EXPANDING RIDGE WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT THAT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PANHANDLE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A WEAK AXIS OF HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES WILL BE WITHIN THIS SURFACE TROUGH. THE THETA-E
VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS POTENT THAN OBSERVED IN THE PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL STILL GENERATE ROBUST SURFACE INSTABILITIES
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALMOST NO FLOW
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL GIVE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE A ROGUE WIND GUST GIVEN NEARLY 40 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS. MUCH DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL WEST OF
THE REGION IN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE TO DISAGREE WITH AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EXPANDING JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT A
WAVE DIPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE MINOR
IMPACT THIS FAR WEST BENEATH THE OPPRESSIVE RIDGE...WITH AT MOST A
MINOR LIGHT WIND SHIFT PERHAPS SETTLING SOUTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY
MAINLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AND ELONGATE AS A
TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM ROTATES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY THE EARLY WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHOVE A MORE VALID WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE RETROGRADES AND AMPLIFIES INTO
CLASSIC FOUR-CORNERS PATTERN. SO...MIGHT EXPECT THIS WOULD PRODUCE
VALID COOLING AND PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SHOWER PROSPECTS
DAYS 8 AND BEYOND. UNTIL THEN...BULK OF EVIDENCE POINTS TOWARDS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. SMALL CHANCE
THE ROLLING PLAINS COULD FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...
MAINLY LATE IN THE WEEK. AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY DRY EARLY TO MID WEEK
AT LEAST...THOUGH SOLUTIONS AGREE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL IMPROVE
EASTERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH COULD THEN
TRANSLATE INTO ELEVATED HEAT INDICES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  98  68  97  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         70  99  69  99  69 /  10   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  98  70  98  69 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     72 100  71  99  70 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  99  72  99  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   73  99  70  99  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73 100  71  99  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 103  74 103  76 /  10   0   0   0  10
SPUR          74 101  72 102  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75 102  77 103  77 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/99/55
992
FXUS64 KLUB 211024
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANY THUNDER THAT DEVELOPS IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE...WELL WEST OF
EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE WILL SEE CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES TODAY UNDERNEATH A BUILDING
RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN POSITIONED WELL INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL BE CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TRY TO INITIATE WITHIN THIS TROUGH AXIS ALTHOUGH THE
EXPANDING RIDGE WILL HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT THAT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE EXTREME WESTERN PANHANDLE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A WEAK AXIS OF HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES WILL BE WITHIN THIS SURFACE TROUGH. THE THETA-E
VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS POTENT THAN OBSERVED IN THE PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL STILL GENERATE ROBUST SURFACE INSTABILITIES
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALMOST NO FLOW
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL GIVE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE A ROGUE WIND GUST GIVEN NEARLY 40 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS. MUCH DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL WEST OF
THE REGION IN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE TO DISAGREE WITH AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EXPANDING JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT A
WAVE DIPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE MINOR
IMPACT THIS FAR WEST BENEATH THE OPPRESSIVE RIDGE...WITH AT MOST A
MINOR LIGHT WIND SHIFT PERHAPS SETTLING SOUTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY
MAINLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AND ELONGATE AS A
TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM ROTATES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY THE EARLY WEEKEND. THIS MAY
SHOVE A MORE VALID WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE RETROGRADES AND AMPLIFIES INTO
CLASSIC FOUR-CORNERS PATTERN. SO...MIGHT EXPECT THIS WOULD PRODUCE
VALID COOLING AND PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SHOWER PROSPECTS
DAYS 8 AND BEYOND. UNTIL THEN...BULK OF EVIDENCE POINTS TOWARDS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. SMALL CHANCE
THE ROLLING PLAINS COULD FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...
MAINLY LATE IN THE WEEK. AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY DRY EARLY TO MID WEEK
AT LEAST...THOUGH SOLUTIONS AGREE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL IMPROVE
EASTERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WHICH COULD THEN
TRANSLATE INTO ELEVATED HEAT INDICES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        96  69  98  68  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  70  99  69  99 /  10  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  71  98  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     98  72 100  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       98  73  99  72  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   98  73  99  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    98  73 100  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  72 103  74 103 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          98  74 101  72 102 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    100  75 102  77 103 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/99

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