Area Forecast Discussion
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525
FXUS64 KLUB 170307 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1007 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS IN DECENT SHAPE...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY.

ASIDE FROM ONE SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS THIS
EVENING...MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION HAS REMAINED VOID OF
STORMS SO FAR THIS EVENING. INSTEAD A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WAS
FOUND IN CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THERE
INTO COLORADO. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTHEAST COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW FOR THE
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ
OF 30+ KNOTS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GRADUALLY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WE DO EXPECT SOME FORM OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR TWO TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD...PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOP MORE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MODERATE LLJ. THUS...WE STILL EXPECT THE
NORTHEAST ZONES TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT EXPERIENCING STORM
OVERNIGHT...WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST YOU
GO...THOUGH NEARLY ANYONE COULD SEE CONVECTION. THE MOST RECENT
NAM AND GFS EVEN SUGGEST ACTIVITY COULD LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AIR /RANGING
FROM 1.3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TO 1.7 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS/ THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAIN RATES...AND BRING THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD EVEN
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS LESS CERTAIN HOW THINGS
WILL PLAY OUT BY THEN. THUS...WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS AND WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WE HAVE NOT MADE
ANY ADJUSTMENTS ATTM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WAS JUST
MOVING THROUGH KLBB. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY AND IT COULD PERHAPS GENERATE A SHOWER OR
STORM...BUT RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS PASSAGE WILL BE A DRY ONE.
OF GREATER CONCERN IS CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD...BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS AT KCDS AND PERHAPS KLBB LATER TONIGHT.
KEPT STORM TIMING IN THE TAFS AS IS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
STARTING AFTER 02Z AT KCDS AND AFTER 05Z AT KLBB. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS COULD
LINGER WELL INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH THE EXACT
DURATION/LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LESS CLEAR. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT THURSDAY MORNING AT KCDS
AND BY AFTERNOON AT KLBB...WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR SUB-VFR CIGS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS KCDS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR TO IFR CIGS...THOUGH THEY COULD ALSO AFFECT KLBB. CONVECTION
CHANCES MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED AXIS OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING FROM
THE WRN OKLA PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS AND THEN
BENDING EWD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING SOUTH
NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE IS INCREASING CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA AND
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN SOME INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN NRN LEA
COUNTY. UPPER-LVL NW FLOW IS STILL RATHER WEAK OVERHEAD...BUT
STRONGER WINDS ARE UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WAVE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NM. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT
WE WILL SEE IN THE AXIS RUNNING IN-BETWEEN NRN AND SE NM IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT WE DO EXPECT THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES. WE ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUR SE COUNTIES...WHICH
LIE JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR WILL
FAVOR MORE PULSE TYPE STORMS INITIALLY...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THIS EVENING...WE EXPECT THE STORMS IN NE NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE
TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX AND PROPAGATE SEWD. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK AND EXTENT OF
THIS COMPLEX. IN GENERAL...THE HIGHER RES MODELS FAVOR A MORE WWD
PATH/EXTENT...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE FAVORS A MORE NEWD TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OKLA...SKIRTING THE FAR SRN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS. WE CAN/T REALLY RULE OUT EITHER
CASE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE A
COMPLEX AND THAT IT WILL IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE/MOST IMPACT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES. WE
EXPECT SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS COMPLEX AS PWAT VALUES ARE
VERY HIGH AND THE SRLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE MOIST INFLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS POCKETS OF 3 INCHES
OR MORE. THERE MAY ALSO BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD AND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE RAINFALL. THE
REGION OF MOST CONCERN AT THIS TIME WILL BE ALONG THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT IN BRISCOE COUNTY...INCLUDING CAPROCK CANYONS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE WASHES AND RIVERBEDS FEEDING INTO
THE RED RIVER. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COMPLEX SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT...PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
PRETTY STABLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
RAIN GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.
HIGH THU WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S NORTH...WITH LOW 80S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
BY TOMORROW EVENING...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE COMPLETELY PASSED THROUGH BOTH THE SOUTH AND ROLLING
PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  WHILE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE AND NOW MAINTAIN SOME LINGERING
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE CEASED ACROSS THE LUB
CWA BEYOND 00Z DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BEYOND 00Z TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM BEFORE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AS A
VERY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND PERHAPS EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN
ORIGINALLY DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SOLUTION. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BE BAD NEWS FOR THE REGION FOR TWO REASONS...AS RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE VERY HARD TO COME BY UNDER THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE...AND
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY SOAR. IN FACT...SHOULD THE MORE DRASTIC
SCENARIO PLAY OUT IN WHICH THE CORE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY EASILY REACH INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. CONSIDERING THAT THIS SHIFT IN
THE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY DRASTIC FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON INCREASING TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE THE ALREADY WARM
CURRENT FORECAST UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. AS
FOR RAIN CHANCES...OPTED TO LEAVE SCHC MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS FOR SATURDAY EVENING...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE AND AN
INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE. SHOULD
THIS TREND CONTINUE THOUGH...THIS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  75  60  82  64 /  70  20  20  10  10
TULIA         62  75  60  78  64 /  80  30  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     64  76  60  79  65 /  70  30  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     65  82  59  82  66 /  50  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       67  81  61  82  68 /  60  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  87  62  83  66 /  40  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  85  60  81  66 /  50  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     64  78  64  81  67 /  90  70  10  10  10
SPUR          68  82  62  82  67 /  60  40  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  84  65  85  70 /  60  60  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

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