070
FXUS64 KLUB 202041
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...
A QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY WHAT IS CURRENTLY
UNFOLDING TO OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS/NWS NORMAN. DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH UPPER TEEN DEWPOINTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO NEAR 30 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...A COLD FRONT
WAS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH OF A CLAYTON...DALHART...BORGER...TO
CANADIAN LINE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 6 AM TOMORROW
MORNING. THE MODELS DO INCREASE DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
THERE WILL BE A TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD TOMORROW MORNING. THIS TROF
SHOULD HELP INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD EVAPORATE ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS MAY ALSO FAVOR A
FEW HEAT BURSTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE DISSIPATION OF ANY OF
THESE HIGH BASED SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY THE COVERAGE AND ALSO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT MENTIONABLE POPS IN AT THIS
TIME.
TROF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL BRING A RAPID CUTOFF TO ANY PRECIPITATION. COOL AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST WITH
CLEAR SKIES.
JORDAN
&&
.LONG TERM...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TOMORROW DUE TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UA LOW PROPAGATING ENE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S BY MIDWEEK...AS
AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE OMNIPRESENT
DRYLINE WILL SURGE TO NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER
WEDNESDAY...TO MORE SO ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY...AS
THE LLJ RAMPS UP TO 30-40 KTS THUS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S BY THU MORNING/. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HINT AT AN UA IMPULSE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND MOVING NEAR THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHICH PERHAPS MAY BE A
SYNOPTIC SPARK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. PRECIP WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS UPSLOPE SFC
WINDS ENCOURAGE LIGHT PRECIP IN THE MORNING...WITH STORMS POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTN THANKS TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND HENCE DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION /SFC-BASED CAPE OF 2.0-3.0 KJ/KG/. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST SINCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. HOWEVER THE CAP APPEARS MINIMAL AND WILL
HOLD ON TO MENTIONABLE POPS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE SAME
SCENARIO WILL EXIST EXCEPT FOR THE DRYLINE RETREATING FARTHER INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY WEEKS END. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...NEAREST TO BEST MOISTURE AXIS.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THE CAP APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MITIGATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. THUS STORMS MAY BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO COINCIDING WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE DRYLINE...AND THE TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UA RIDGE. HOWEVER BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE CAP
WOULD HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND IT IS NO WONDER
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DISPLAY PRECIP NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
BORDER DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD. THIS SEEMS VALID AND WILL
ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY EVENING-NIGHT. BY WEEKEND/S
END...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SHIFT EAST AS A BROAD UA LOW
DOMINATES THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THE DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
MAY THEREFORE NEAR WESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 10-14 PERCENT ACROSS THE SAID
AREAS.
EXPECT WARM TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 90S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW 80S ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED PRECIP AND THUS INCREASED CLOUDINESS.
COULD SEE TEMPS DIP BACK INTO THE 80S CWA-WIDE ON TUESDAY SINCE THE
UA RIDGE IS NO LONGER OVERHEAD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY SRLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTN COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S /8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORM/ WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT MORE SO ON THE CAPROCK.
LOWEST HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS
SUCH...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.
THERE IS A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT ADDITIONAL
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 49 78 52 90 56 / 10 10 0 0 10
TULIA 53 79 54 92 58 / 10 10 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 55 80 56 92 60 / 10 10 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 57 83 56 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 58 82 58 93 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 55 84 55 92 63 / 0 10 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 59 84 56 92 64 / 0 10 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 59 81 57 94 62 / 10 10 10 10 20
SPUR 63 86 57 95 62 / 10 10 0 10 10
ASPERMONT 63 87 61 97 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/29
