Area Forecast Discussion
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979
FXUS64 KLUB 092104
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AN EXPANSION OF CU FIELD
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE
ELEVATED AND RELATIVELY WEAK...ALTHOUGH GIVEN SOUNDING PROFILES A
DOWNBURST CANT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY
FORM...OTHERWISE AS THE SUN SETS GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE ALONG WITH THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
ARRIVING IN THE SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE...THIS IS THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS AFFECTING OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS...WEDNESDAYS HIGHS
WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART WHICH IS NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ALSO ADJUSTED POPS UP SLIGHTLY BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS OR TSORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING
COLD FRONT IS LOW DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONVERGING WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS.

LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY LINES UP WITH SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRANSFER
EAST ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
INITIAL CDFNT SHOULD BE THROUGH CWA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WED EVENING. BEST FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL EXIST FROM SE OK ACROSS NW TX INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS CLOSER TO THE TAIL END OF THE EXITING SHRTWV. FURTHER W
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE POST FRONTAL
INTO THE EVENING PRIMARILY FROM SE NM INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE
CWA AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. OVERNIGHT WED DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL HELP MAINTAIN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT ADDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR SCT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE. PRECIP CHANCE THU INTO THU EVENING MORE UNCERTAIN AS
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HOLDS DOWN SFC HEATING AND LAPSE RATES
LESSEN WITH TIME. LEFT SLIGHT CHC POPS IN FORECAST AS MODELS
MAINTAIN SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER THE REGION AS BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MERGES WITH WSW FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ELONGATED
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SURGE OF RATHER CHILLY CANADIAN AIR ON FRI. BETTER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT FRI LEAVING A CLOUD AND COOL DAY SAT. COOLEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE FRI WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE FALLING
ALONG WITH H8 TEMPS. LEFT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR NOW ON FRI WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING SAT. GFS DOES ATTEMPT TO BRING
SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT AROUND THE REBUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE ON
SUN AND MODELS DO GENERATE ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PAC
SIMILAR TO NORBERTS TRACK. IF THESE FEATURES REMAIN PROMINENT THE
NEXT FORECAST CYCLE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INCREASING POPS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  82  55  75  57 /  20  20  20  20  30
TULIA         67  84  55  75  56 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     67  86  58  76  58 /  20  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  63  75  59 /  20  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       68  89  60  75  59 /  10  20  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   68  90  63  77  60 /  20  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    70  92  64  77  60 /  10  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     74  90  61  77  61 /  10  20  20  10  30
SPUR          72  92  65  77  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
ASPERMONT     75  95  67  81  64 /  10  20  30  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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