Area Forecast Discussion
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612
FXUS64 KLUB 270533
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODEST 1035 MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING BY JUST TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. RENEWED
SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL WRANGLE CONTROL BACK IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...HOWEVER...WITH ENHANCED SOUTHWEST BREEZES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. TRENDS...HOWEVER...SUPPORT A NOTCH LESS WARMING
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY MARKING THE ONLY NOTABLE
CONTENTION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPERATURES
TUMBLE IN TIME FOR THE START OF DECEMBER.

THE WARM READINGS LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A RESULT OF
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND NEAR FULL
INSOLATION AS A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS SHOULD SUPPLY THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH THREE
STRAIGHT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. WE COULD EVEN THREATEN THE
RELATIVELY LOW RECORD HIGH OF 78 DEGREES /SET IN 2012/ AT LUBBOCK ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST IS JUST SHY OF THE RECORD.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE A PLEASANT STRETCH...THOUGH THE COMBINATION
OF WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
NATION WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN THE DOOR FOR MUCH COLDER AIR...WITH
ORIGINS IN THE ARCTIC..TO PLUNGE INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE CONUS
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THRUST OF THE COLD AIR
INVASION WILL BE INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH EVEN WEST TEXAS SHOULD
RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FROPA WILL BE A DRY ONE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY KNOCK HIGHS BACK
DOWN INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
QUICKLY MODERATE BACK TOWARD AVERAGE BEYOND THAT AS SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TUESDAY.

THINGS DO BECOME LESS CERTAIN TOWARD THE FAR END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NPW REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION THERE. HOWEVER...THE
GUIDANCE HAS NOW TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH AS WHAT REMAINS OF
THIS OPENING SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE NATION TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT ONE POINT IT APPEARED WE
COULD SEE POPS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...THOUGH THE
LATEST NWP TRENDS ARE LESS OPTIMISTIC AND MAY INSTEAD DRY SLOT WEST
TEXAS. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  64  34  75  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  60  35  75  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     30  60  35  74  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  62  34  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  62  35  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  61  34  73  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  60  34  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     30  61  38  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          30  61  36  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     32  61  39  72  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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