Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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645
FXUS64 KLUB 271816
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL SATURATION
COMBINED WITH AT LEAST WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...MAY SEE A FEW
FLURRIES LINGER ABOUT THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AREAWIDE...BUT STILL EXPECTING
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL GIVEN TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHATTER THE PREVIOUS RECORD
COOL HIGHS FOR BOTH LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS OF 37 AND 28 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH SNOW HAVING PUSHED EAST OF ALL SITES...HAVE SEEN BORDERLINE
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TAKE OVER IN THE PAST HOUR. THIS WILL
REMAIN THE STORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE MVFR AND LIKELY
IFR CEILINGS TAKE HOLD THIS EVENING AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM
THE SOUTH ATOP A COLD SURFACE LAYER EXACERBATED BY A 3-5 INCH SNOW
COVER. COULD SEE A SHOT OF A WINTRY MIX LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL
CERTAINTY AND TIMING BECOME CLEARER.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE MUCH ADVERTISED SNOW EVENT IS PLAYING OUT NICELY SO FAR THIS
MORNING WELL DOWNSTREAM OF A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH POISED
300 MILES WEST OF LUBBOCK AT 09Z. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...IR
IMAGERY SHOWED A RESPECTABLE AXIS OF MOIST ASCENT WITH STEADY
CLOUD TOP COOLING FROM ROSWELL EAST TO LUBBOCK COINCIDENT A BAND
OF ENHANCED SNOW. A SECOND BUT MORE COMPACT ZONE OF VIGOROUS LIFT
WAS EVIDENT BETWEEN ALBUQUERQUE AND VEGA WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO OUR NW COUNTIES CLOSE TO 12Z. SNOW TOTALS REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED FROM BEFORE...ALTHOUGH WE DID NUDGE AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 4
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF AN ENHANCED SNOW BAND WHICH WAS LESS CERTAIN IN
EARLIER FORECASTS. SKYCAM IMAGERY FROM WHITEFACE SHOWED THAT ROADS
THERE QUICKLY BECAME SNOW COVERED UNDER THIS BAND WITH
VISIBILITIES ESTIMATED BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES. FOR NOW WILL OPT
TO LET THE ADVISORY RIDE AS 4+ INCH OCCURRENCES ARE STILL FAVORED
TO OCCUR IN NARROW SWATHS.

TIMING OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FAVORS SNOW TO END
NEAR THE NM STATE LINE BY LATE MORNING WITH AN EARLY AFTERNOON
DEPARTURE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF THE
SPLIT ADVISORY END TIMES FROM W-E. POPS WERE SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
FOR ALL BUT OUR NW COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
DEPARTS THE REGION TONIGHT...STEADY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESUME
AHEAD OF A SURGE OF MILDER SOUTHWESTERLIES FROM 8-12K FEET. MODELS
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS WARM PUSH ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z...SO POPS WERE ALIGNED MORE CLOSELY WITH THIS
RATIONALE. ANOTHER NIGHTTIME BOUT OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BE IN THE CARDS
FOR OUR NW COUNTIES IN THIS SETUP...BUT ASCENT IS LESS IMPRESSIVE
THAN TODAY SO SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTH...
MODEL SOUNDINGS TREND MILDER OVERNIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
NOSING ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE DEFICITS IN THIS MILD LAYER MAY VERY
WELL RESTRICT PRECIP ORIGINATION TO THE STRATUS LAYER BENEATH.
PROFILES POINT TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT PENDING THOSE ALL TOO CRUCIAL ICE
NUCLEATION TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIGGING ANOTHER TROF
DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST AND KEEPING IT THERE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS A RESULT. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE COLD POOL WILL START TO MODERATE
THE AIRMASS AND RESULT IN A MIX OF PRECIPITATION AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP
TO MIX THE AIRMASS OUT AND BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ACROSS
THE CAPROCK WITH MID 30S FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
KICK OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING BETTER CHANCES AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA BUT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN
THE WARM LAYER GIVING US A CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT RAIN IN AREAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING WITH SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL THANKS TO THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE SLOW WARMUP WILL STOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A
GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH
HIGHS NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST TO MID 40S NORTHEAST. AGAIN...WE COULD SEE
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE FRONT PROVIDES SOME
LIFT BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING AS THE MODELS
DO NOT SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOMETIME AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST TROF FINALLY EJECTS OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE LAST
OF THE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS
IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING BUT LOWS FALLING BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. THIS WILL
IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPE BUT EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME FORM OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST ONCE THE TROF AXIS IS
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        16  38  32  48 /  30  20  10  10
TULIA         16  35  33  47 /  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     18  36  34  50 /  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     19  41  36  58 /  20  20  20   0
LUBBOCK       18  39  36  56 /  20  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   21  44  36  64 /  20  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    21  42  38  59 /  20  20  20   0
CHILDRESS     19  34  30  48 /  20  40  30  20
SPUR          20  36  35  54 /  30  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     22  37  36  56 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31

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