655
FXUS64 KLUB 201128
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY OUTSIDE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. TSTMS EXPECTED TO FIRE NEAR TX/NM STATE LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD MAKE IT INTO THE KLBB TERMINAL. KCDS MAY BE
AFFECTED LATER BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO MENTION IN TAF
ATTM. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY-CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THEN FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE BERING SEA INTO SIBERIA. HOWEVER...THIS
RIDGE WILL BE IMPINGED UPON BY EXTREMITIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEST TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST NW OF UL HIGH. ONCE AGAIN...WE
SEE JUST A BIT OF WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH ON THE NW FLANK. WEAK
SUBTROPICAL JET APPEARS TO RUN FROM BAJA TO NEAR OUR REGION. H2
ANALYSIS SUGGEST WE COULD BE IN FAVORED LEFT FRONT REGION THOUGH JET
APPEARS TILTED DOWNWARD TO THE NORTH SUGGESTING SUBSIDENCE BELOW.
ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS LITTLE THAT STANDS OUT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
OTHER THAN PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTING SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
LOOKING DOWN LOWER...BEST THETA-E AXIS LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM NEAR
GUADALUPE PEAK UP THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE JUST EAST OF ZONE OF ENHANCE BAROCLINICITY FROM
KDHT TO KROW. THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN VARIOUS NWP
SOLUTIONS. SO...WHAT IS THE FORECAST? HERE IS WHAT IS EXPECTED
BASED ON THE INFO AVAILABLE AT PRESENT. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY QUIET WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THEN MOVE EAST. BULK SHEAR...WHILE
INITIALLY WEAK DURING THE DAY...WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /30-40KT/ PARTICULARLY N AND W OF KLBB DURING
THE EVENING HOURS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES.
INSTABILITY IS QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS LIKELY UP AROUND
3-4KJ/KG. CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY WEST
OF A CHILDRESS TO POST LINE WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE THREAT WEST
OF A SILVERTON TO BROWNFIELD LINE. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT IS
LOW...IT IS NON-ZERO BUT DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. FOR
HAIL...WILL INITIALLY CALL FOR UP TO BASEBALL SIZE ALONG WITH
TYPICAL SEVERE WIND THREAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ACTIVITY SHOULD
LARGELY BE WRAPPING UP BY MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
BROAD UA LOW MOVING ENE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL BE NEARING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW AND AID IN
ESTABLISHING SW FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SWRN CONUS TO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS. CLOSER TO HOME...THE SUBTROPICAL UA RIDGE WILL
BE THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...THEREBY PROMOTING WARM TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
THROUGH LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK /90S/. DUE TO THE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC NW LOW...THE CENTER OF
THE UA RIDGE WILL GET SHIFTED EASTWARD A BIT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...STRETCHING FROM NERN OLD MEXICO TO SOUTH CENTRAL OK. SFC
TROUGHING DRAPED FROM SERN CO TO ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NM WILL BE
ONE OF THE FACTORS FOR POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND THE FETCH OF BAJA
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT PRECIP DEVELOPING EACH
AFTN/EVENING TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INITIATING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN TRANSLATING NE ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN
ZONES...THANKS TO ADEQUATE SWRLY MEAN FLOW. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SFC TROUGH...IT IS
HARD TO ARGUE WITH MODEL RUNS CONTINUAL DEPICTION OF THIS PRECIP
SIGNAL FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL INHERIT PREVIOUS FORECAST
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS WRN ZONES TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL
ALSO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ON SATURDAY SINCE CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING A BIT.
NEXT WEEK...THE UA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN NW TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY MID
TO LATE WEEK. ONCE THE UA RIDGE IS OVERHEAD...INCREASING CIN WILL
MAKE IT HARD-PRESSED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ONCE THE CENTER
PROPAGATES NW AWAY FROM THE REGION...MODELS SUGGEST AN EMBEDDED
IMPULSE/WEAKNESS ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY COULD GENERATE
STORMS NEAR/ACROSS THE FA /AS HINTED AT VIA THE GFS AND ECMWF/. WILL
NOT BITE ON THIS JUST YET AND WILL THEREFORE HOLD ON TO SILENT POPS
FOR THE LATTER-HALF OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 64 94 64 93 / 30 30 20 20 20
TULIA 94 66 94 65 93 / 20 30 10 20 10
PLAINVIEW 93 66 94 66 93 / 20 20 10 20 10
LEVELLAND 93 67 96 67 95 / 20 30 10 20 10
LUBBOCK 94 68 95 67 95 / 20 20 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 90 67 98 67 96 / 20 30 10 20 10
BROWNFIELD 91 68 96 67 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
CHILDRESS 98 70 98 70 97 / 10 10 0 10 0
SPUR 97 68 96 69 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 96 70 98 71 97 / 10 10 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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