925
FXUS64 KLUB 111743
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1243 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION BUT SURFACE
CONDITIONS ARE DRY SO LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE
IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTING EITHER TAF SITE ARE LOW SINCE
THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT MINOR
VISBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG ON SUNDAY MORNING AT KLBB BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE UA CUTOFF LOW CONTINUED TO DIG SSE ACROSS WESTERN OLD MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING...THANKS TO UA RIDGING IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN
CONUS. MEANWHILE THE ONCE APPENDED BROAD UA TROUGH CONTINUED TO
SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILST ANOTHER UA LOW WAS
MOVING SSE ACROSS ONTARIO TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ENSUED WITH LINGERING MOIST
CONDITIONS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S/. A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
AS THE UA RIDGE SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AN
UPTICK IN HEIGHT FIELDS WILL OCCUR LEADING TO TEMPS IN THE 70S
TODAY. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UA LOW NEARING THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SEND A SLIGHTLY BREEZY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT /10-15 MPH/ ACROSS THE FA
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN. MODEL SOLUTIONS DISPLAY LIGHT QPF
SIGNALS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR THE NRN ZONES ALONG THE
FROPA /THE NAM BEING THE MOST BULLISH WITH REGARD TO QPF SPATIAL
DISTRIBUTION/. WITH THE CUTOFF LOW BEING WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THUS COINCIDING WITH WHERE THE BEST LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS DISPLACED...IT APPEARS MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A BIT OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING NOTED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS
/PWATS LESS THAN 0.70 INCHES/ WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTENING /INDICATIVE
OF SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS/. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TERRAIN
INFLUENCED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN ADDITION
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE CWA NEAREST TO THE CUTOFF
LOW...WITH VIRGA SHOWERS LIKELY BE THE RULE FOR THE CWA. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH GIVEN THE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH REGARD TO RAINFALL...A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND AND
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO 10 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH COURTESY OF THE
COMMENCEMENT OF SFC LEE TROUGHING NW OF THE REGION. ANY LINGERING
VIRGA SHOWERS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER TO MID 50S SE.
LONG TERM...
LIKELY TRANQUIL WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO THE SW KEEPING LIGHT NWLY FLOW
OVERHEAD. AS THE LOW LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUESDAY COULD
STILL SEE SOME THUNDER INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA
PRECIP-FREE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FCST LATE IN THE WEEK
UNCERTAIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PROGGED OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
ECMWF GIVING POSSIBLE THUNDER ON THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS MORE OF A DIRTY RIDGE WITH
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. GIVEN QUESTIONS AROUND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND WHICH LOW
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 47 79 49 83 53 / 10 10 10 0 0
TULIA 48 80 53 85 55 / 10 10 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 50 81 54 86 56 / 10 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 52 79 55 84 56 / 10 10 10 0 10
LUBBOCK 52 80 55 85 58 / 10 10 10 0 10
DENVER CITY 53 78 53 82 56 / 10 10 10 0 10
BROWNFIELD 52 80 55 84 56 / 10 10 10 0 10
CHILDRESS 52 83 57 89 59 / 10 10 10 0 0
SPUR 54 81 57 87 58 / 10 10 10 0 10
ASPERMONT 54 82 57 87 60 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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