Area Forecast Discussion
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618
FXUS64 KLUB 202147
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
347 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FCST HANDLES THE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM.
POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KTS THIS
EVENING. HAVE BEEN WATCHING SOME STRATUS FILTER THROUGH THE NRN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE...BUT AS MODELS INDICATED THAT PROGRESSION HAS
STALLED. WRF-NAM IN PARTICULAR TRIES TO EDGE THOSE CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST UPSLOPE TYPE FLOW
COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO
LINE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO LOW ATTM AND
WILL KEEP FOG MENTION OUT ATTM.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. THE MAIN
ENERGY WILL DIG SEWD TO THE COLORADO ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WHILE A JET
STREAM AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM MOVE
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MEXICO. THE COMBINATION WILL INDUCE
INCREASINGLY MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS ABLE TO SATURATE...POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AFTN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL EXIST. PRECIP PHASE HERE FAVORS RAIN INITIALLY BASED ON
LOW LEVEL TEMPS...BUT COULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY ENOUGH LATE IN
THE DAY FOR SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN BEFORE EVENING. FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY WILL SEE ISENTROPIC
LIFT COMBINE WITH THE LIFT FROM THE SRN STREAM JET STREAK TO CREATE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS PROGGED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST...POSSIBLY AS
FAR NORTH AS THE SRN PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PHASING OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION
KICKS INTO FULL SWING. A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE
A SURGE OF COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH EARLIER...BEFORE THIS
TRANSITION CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE
POSITIVELY TILTED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...DYNAMICS ALOFT INCLUDING
DIV-Q FIELDS AND OMEGA PROFILES LOOK MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR
ABUNDANT LIFT ATOP MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER IN
TANDEM WITH THESE IMPRESSIVE OMEGA PROFILES...LEADING TO
SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND LIKELY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
RATES AT TIMES.

THIS COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN IN THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S...BUT A SWITCH BACK TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR INTO THURSDAY EVENING
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...THE PRESENCE OF A
DISTINCT TROWAL FEATURE COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE...ALTHOUGH DECREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND AT LEAST A LITTLE DRYING ALOFT SHOULD BE TAKING HOLD
LATER INTO THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR STRENGTH/PLACEMENT
OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND BEHIND THE
UPPER TROUGH FOR ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR RISING MOTION.

WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK...WITH 4-6
INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
AREAS EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD GENERALLY SEE 1-3
INCHES...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS WHERE RAIN MAY REMAIN THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION MODE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...BUT THESE RANGES SHOULD
GENERALLY REFLECT THE GRAND NATURE OF THE EVENT. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO COVER THE PERIOD FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY WARMUP FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH A FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN CHECK...RISING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FRIDAY TO 50S/60S
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  40  24  28  13 /   0  40 100  90  30
TULIA         32  42  27  30  16 /   0  40 100  90  30
PLAINVIEW     32  45  28  31  19 /   0  20 100  90  30
LEVELLAND     31  45  28  31  19 /   0  20 100  90  30
LUBBOCK       32  47  29  33  21 /   0  20 100  90  30
DENVER CITY   32  45  28  32  21 /   0  20  80  90  30
BROWNFIELD    32  46  28  32  21 /   0  20  90  90  30
CHILDRESS     36  48  30  38  25 /   0  20 100  80  20
SPUR          34  49  30  36  25 /   0  20 100  90  30
ASPERMONT     35  52  33  39  28 /   0  20 100  90  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

07/31

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