Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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046
FXUS64 KLUB 171157
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
657 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST TODAY
OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE
IMPACTING KCDS WHILE KLBB WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EDGE. VERY MOIST
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO
MVFR BY AFTERNOON. RISK OF IFR OR LOWER RETURNING TONIGHT WITH
MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST TODAY EASTERN AREAS
AS A WELL DEFINED UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST. INITIAL LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. COOLER AIR ALSO
INVADING THE REGION AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FLOOD THREAT
THOUGH WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE EARLIER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN
ENOUGH TRAINING OR RETENTION OF CORES TO VALIDATE THIS THREAT SO FAR.
SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS FAVOR A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH
SHORTER UPDRAFTS THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. BY EVENING WE EXPECT MORE IMPACT FROM A
DRYING TREND SETTING IN...HELD LOW CHANCE MENTION FAVORING SOUTHEAST
ZONES WITH GRADUAL DRYING AND LOWERING MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER IN
THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY WITH SLIGHT EDGE TOWARDS
LATEST SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TO FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WARMING TEMPERATURES CHARACTERIZE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS UPPER
RIDGING REMAINS ON TAP TO BUILD IN FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER OVERALL THAN THOSE EARLIER
THIS WEEK...THERE COULD BE NARROW WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AS LONG AS ITS CENTER STAYS WEST OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH HAS AND STILL LOOKS TO BE THE CASE AT THIS
TIME.

FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WHERE
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCES FOR
STORMS INTO THE EVENING REMAIN NIL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW WITH
THESE BELOW NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH AN APPRECIABLE
CAP ALOFT. DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN
VALID ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE CONTINUED HINT OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKING TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E VALUES.
SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED FLOW ALOFT MAY ALSO ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE IN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE SOUTH PLAINS FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOLLOWING SATURDAY EVENING
AS CONTINUED RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OCCURS WITH QUESTION AS TO ITS
INTENSITY AND EXACT LOCATION. NWP SOLUTIONS SHOW A SLOWER
PROPAGATION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS AS LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE
EASTERN CONUS ATTEMPT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE AT BAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK
AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  57  83  64  92 /  50  20  10  10  10
TULIA         75  59  81  64  90 /  70  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     76  60  81  65  90 /  60  10   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     82  60  84  66  95 /  30  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       81  62  83  68  94 /  50  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   87  61  85  66  97 /  30  20  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    83  61  85  66  96 /  30  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     76  63  82  67  91 /  80  20  10   0  10
SPUR          82  63  83  67  95 /  80  30   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     83  66  84  70  95 /  80  40  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

99/99/05

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