659
FXUS64 KLUB 260324 AAB
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1024 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO RECONFIGURE POPS FAVORING THE NORTH-
CENTRAL...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ZONES...GIVEN THE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. OVERALL WEAKENING STORM INTENSITIES SHOULD CONTINUE
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS...AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
TIME AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES GRADUALLY GUST OUT. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHWESTERN MOST ZONES...WHERE
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS POISED TO MOVE IN. HAIL AND WIND
THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AS STORMS MOVE INTO
STRONG INSTABILITY...THOUGH EXPECT A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND
AFTER SUNSET. STILL...GUSTY /AND DUSTY/ OUTFLOW COULD ORGANIZE AND
MAKE A PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAPROCK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE -TSRA AND/OR STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT KLBB
LATE THIS EVENING...AND MVFR CEILINGS AT KCDS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. T-STORMS IN EASTERN NM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY DECAY BEFORE REACHING KLBB. THE PASSAGE
OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CONSIDERED MORE LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. WE HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS ASSOC. WITH ANY
BOUNDARY...SO WE HAVE KEPT THEM ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE IN A
TEMPO MENTION. AT KCDS...WE EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO MOVE IN AROUND
10 UTC...THEN GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT SUN MORN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CB DEVELOPING
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
SHORT TERM...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS ALREADY SUPPORTED
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM THE SACRAMENTOS NORTH TO SANTA ROSA. A SECOND
AREA OF INTEREST IS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE ALONG THE MESCALERO
ESCARPMENT WHERE AGITATED CU HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR AND
NAM-WRF BOTH PROG TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS CU LINE BEFORE 00Z
AND CARRY IT EASTWARD TO VARIOUS DEGREES WITHIN 20 KNOTS OF
700-500MB FLOW. CONSIDERING CINH IS TRENDING NEGLIGIBLE ALONG THE
NM/TX STATE LINE AND SBCAPE IS AROUND 2K J/KG...HAVE ADDED SEVERE
MENTION TO OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES WHERE THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PEAK IN INTENSITY BEFORE DIMINISHING THEREAFTER AS THE MIXING LAYER
DECOUPLES. LITTLE/NO BACKGROUND SUPPORT MAY FURTHER LIMIT THE
CHANCES OF THIS PERSISTING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED MENTION THROUGH 06Z.
SUNDAY WILL SEE IMPROVED W-SWLY FLOW OVERSPREAD THE REGION RESULTING
IN THE DRYLINE MIXING OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND STALLING SOMEWHERE OVER
THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA. ALBEIT MODEST...AN ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF
GULF MOISTURE BY EARLY SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO SECURE HIGHER SBCAPES
GENERALLY AROUND 3500 J/KG ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH EVEN EXTREME
VALUES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...HOWEVER THE LATTER IS SHOWN TO REMAIN
CAPPED AND TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE DRYLINE. NO DISCERNIBLE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGGED...BUT AS IS THE CASE TODAY DEEP MIXING
SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST ISO TSTMS. WINDOW FOR
SUPERCELLS WILL BE OPENED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS RISE TO NEARLY 40
KNOTS AND MAINTAIN A PERPENDICULAR ORIENTATION TO THE DRYLINE.
ROBUST CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
LCL VALUES WILL OPEN THE WINDOW FOR SOME VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
DOWNBURSTS. MOST HIGH TEMPS WERE KEPT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
MOS...PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE OUR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
COULD END UP WITH THE HOTTEST VALUES FOR THE DAY.
LONG TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THENCE WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS COME ASHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TOWARD MID WEEK...FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH DEEPENS FROM THE PAC NW.
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW AS UPPER LOW SETTLES
ACROSS WYOMING THOUGH ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE WY
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE THU/EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES
PERSISTING THROUGH DAY 7.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSRA INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS SETTLING AFTER SUNSET. DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH INTO NEW
MEXICO OVERNIGHT THEN TIGHTEN UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION LOOKING MOST LIKELY EAST OF A SILVERTON TO BROWNFIELD
LINE THOUGH SOME VARIANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INFLUENCES OF
SUNDAY NIGHT/S STORMS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO KEEP THE DRYLINE A BIT
FURTHER WEST THUS GIVING MORE OF THE AREA A SHOT AT THE MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. WITH THE MORE STRONGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ON WEDNESDAY...THIS
COULD BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEK THOUGH
EACH DAY WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT IS
THAT EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE SLOSHES ACROSS
THE REGION. AT PRESENT...IT WOULD APPEAR THE TORNADO THREAT THIS
WEEK WOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY.
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE...ELEVATED TO LOW END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON AS MIN AFTN RH
DROPS TO THE LOWER TEENS WITH THE BREEZY WEST-OF-THE-DRYLINE WINDS.
OUR NORTHWEST HAS SEEN THE LOWEST AMOUNT OF GREEN-UP DUE TO THE LACK
OF PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING AND WHILE FUELS ARE NOT
PLENTIFUL...WHAT IS THERE WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BURN QUITE EASILY
GIVEN THE RIGHT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 61 94 62 94 61 / 20 20 20 10 10
TULIA 61 94 65 94 64 / 40 20 20 20 20
PLAINVIEW 62 93 65 95 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 63 95 68 95 67 / 50 20 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 65 94 67 95 67 / 40 20 20 20 20
DENVER CITY 62 95 68 95 68 / 30 10 10 10 20
BROWNFIELD 63 95 68 96 68 / 60 20 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 68 94 67 94 67 / 20 10 10 10 20
SPUR 65 92 68 95 68 / 20 10 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 68 93 69 92 69 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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