Area Forecast Discussion
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759
FXUS64 KLUB 301123
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL DOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING OVER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH GENERALLY SUSTAINED AT
OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW
CHURNING OFF THE BAJA...WITH A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING TO ITS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO WEST
TEXAS. ALSO APPARENT IS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA...WITH SEVERAL SUBTLE/WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING
RESIDES OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
WANE AND SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS ONE OR MORE UNORGANIZED RIBBONS OF
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY TRANSLATE OVER WITHIN BACKING FLOW ALOFT.

THE WEAK UPPER SUPPORT MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE PERIODIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A RELATIVE DEARTH OF SUB-CLOUD
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW /AND UNMENTIONABLE/ THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD BUT WILL LIKELY
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SURVIVING THE JOURNEY ACROSS THE STATE LINE GIVEN
THE UNFAVORABLE/DRY LOW-LEVELS AND OVERALL WEAK UPPER SUPPORT.
INSTEAD...A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY ALL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...WE WILL EXPERIENCE A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...AND COUPLED WITH THE DEPARTING
SURFACE RIDGE...IT WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. WE
HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...LEANING TOWARD A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED INSOLATION.
OBVIOUSLY...IF THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE GREATER THAN EXPECTED OR
THE CLOUDS THINNER THAN ANTICIPATED...THE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE MODESTLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL CARRY IN SOMEWHAT IMPROVED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP SECURE A MILD
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE LOWS WILL ONLY
DIP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S. ELSEWHERE...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S WILL BE COMMON.

LONG TERM...
THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONVOLUTED
AS THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE QUALITY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND THE DEGREE OF DRYLINE FORCING AND
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT.

THE LATEST MODEL PROGS BRING THE UPPER LOW ON A SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS MX AND SW TX AND THUS LOWERS THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN OUR AREA. ALSO...MOISTURE RETURN IS
NOW NOT LOOKING QUITE AS ROBUST AS EARLIER INDICATED AND DIURNAL
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S AND 40S
ON THE CAPROCK BY MID AFTERNOON....WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY YET HOLD
IN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. FINALLY...THE DRYLINE IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE VERY SHARP...WHICH APPEARS VALID GIVEN THE WEAK
MIDDLE AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
ZONE OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CAPROCK EDGE BY MID-AFTERNOON. FORECAST MLCAPES RANGE FROM ABOUT
500 J/KG NEAR THE I-27 CORRIDOR TO NEARLY 2000 J/KG IN THE EASTERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BY MID-
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. THE
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
LARGER THREAT OF BOTH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. MODEST DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT THE SHEAR IMPROVES
TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND COULD SUPPORT SOME MORE SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN/ERN ROLLING
PLAINS.

UNFORTUNATELY...WE HAVE MUCH BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT A VERY
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY PATTERN WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...TO GO ALONG WITH THE BREEZY SW-W WINDS. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS LATE WED JUST IN
CASE THE DRYLINE HANGS UP JUST A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODEL PROJECTIONS...BUT MOST LIKELY THE MOISTURE AND T-STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WHAT WE/LL BE LEFT WITH
IS A VERY DRY WELL-MIXED AIRMASS THAT WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO RACE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL PACK SOME DECENTLY COOL AIR WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 60S AND 70S...THEN ONLY 60S ON SATURDAY. RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS STABLE THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY...BUT A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AND A WARM-AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS NUDGING INTO OUR SRN AND ERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THE UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF/CENTRAL MX...WITH WEST TEXAS IN-BETWEEN. IF
THE DEEP SW FLOW DOESN/T SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE THIS PATTERN COULD
SUPPORT SOME DRYLINE T-STORM ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. A RETURN TO WARM TEMPS IS MUCH MORE
CERTAIN.

FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
LIKELY BOTH DAYS. THE DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS TO PUSH RH VALUES ACROSS THE CAPROCK WELL BELOW 15 PERCENT
EACH AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT QUITE REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE STRONGER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  47  80  45 /   0  10  10  10
TULIA         75  48  82  49 /   0  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     74  48  82  49 /   0  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     76  51  82  49 /   0  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       76  53  84  51 /   0  10  30  10
DENVER CITY   75  51  80  50 /   0  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    75  53  82  50 /   0  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     79  54  86  56 /   0  10  30  20
SPUR          77  55  84  56 /   0  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     79  59  84  59 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23

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