Area Forecast Discussion
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271
FXUS64 KLUB 271716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
RAIN/CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO THE WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS
TONIGHT BUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR -TSRA WILL EXIST NEAR BOTH
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATER AT CDS TOMORROW AFTER
12Z WITH A CHANCE STILL POSSIBLE AT LBB. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING...PRECIP MENTION WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THIS
TAF CYCLE WITH THE TAFS BEING UPDATED AS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY WED MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF ERN NM INTO WTX. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THE PAST HOUR PER WTLMA BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOT ONLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING....BUT SEEMS TO SHOW A ENHANCED SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS INTO SC NM. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A STREAM OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...LIKELY MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN/NW
ZONES. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WEST/NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND CAN/T REALLY SEE A
REASON THAT THIS WOULDN/T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONLY DOWNSIDE MAY
BE THE EXTENSIVE MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AND COULD DECREASE THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE
WEST....PROGGED QPF IS NOT OUTSTANDING IN THE MODEL REALM BUT GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING CELLS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NW SPLNS INTO THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SO WE WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE HWO.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW
MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE FETCH AND PERIODS OF LIFT.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME IN LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THOUGH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE LIFT ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT EXTENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
LOST BY FRIDAY MORNING RELYING ONLY ON THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 CLOSE TO
AN INCREDIBLE 2.0 INCHES AT CHILDRESS. CALCULATING A QUICK AND
DIRTY AVERAGE GIVES ABOUT 175-200 PERCENT OR NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RISING AND GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 90S NEARING 100 DEGREES OFF THE
CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  87  58  87  61 /  40  30  30  30  20
TULIA         65  87  62  89  63 /  40  30  30  30  20
PLAINVIEW     65  87  63  89  64 /  30  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     65  88  63  89  64 /  30  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  90  66  91  67 /  20  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  91  64  92  65 /  20  30  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    66  91  64  92  66 /  20  30  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  91  69  91  70 /  20  40  40  30  30
SPUR          68  93  66  93  67 /  20  40  40  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  96  70 /  20  40  40  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29/51

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