Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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531
FXUS64 KLUB 261913 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
113 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO NUDGE OUR HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON UP A FEW
DEGREES. 1 PM WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS SHOW THAT MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
REACHED OR ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OF THEIR FORECAST HIGHS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH W-NW
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND PASSING CIRRUS AOA 18K FT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR WITH STEADY W-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE RIO GRANDE WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR. MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SERVE TO BOOST LL THICKNESSES
LOCALLY...SO HAVE EDGED MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MILDER MAV NUMBERS.
MAV REMAINS FAVORED FOR MIN TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN AS THE MET HAS
PROVEN TOO COOL AS OF LATE.

LONG TERM...
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WEAK FRONT
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES AS DEEP DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY WARM TEMPS FOR LATE JANUARY...ESP WEDNESDAY WITH 70S
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE WED NIGHT...REVERSING
THE WARMING TREND AND KNOCKING BACK TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES
THURSDAY FROM WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AGAIN THURSDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ECM AND GFS ARE BULLISH
WITH THIS IDEA...AND GIVEN SIMILARITY OF SOLUTIONS AND PRESENCE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING NE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH SRN CALIFORNIA. CONTINUED TREND OF UPPING
POPS FURTHER IN THIS TIME FRAME. DON`T THINK GFS HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE NECESSARILY UNREASONABLE GIVEN PATTERN.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE SOUTH IN WAKE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THERE IS
AGREEMENT ON COLDER AIR SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE PRECIP. TO
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. A BREAK IN
THE ACTION LIKELY SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW HEADS SOUTH ALONG
BAJA...BEFORE THE LOW OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  33  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         69  36  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     70  35  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     70  35  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       71  35  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   71  36  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  35  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     77  41  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          74  40  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33

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