Area Forecast Discussion
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420
FXUS64 KLUB 221756
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1156 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IN THE PROCESS OF WINDING DOWN FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA. DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE NERN ZONES HAVE KILLED
PRECIP THERE. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PRECIP CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH NM WITH BEST LIFT EVIDENT PER
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN. SOME MOISTENING VCNTY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK
EWD AS WELL. EXPECT RESULT TO BE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN AN INCH/ WRN ZONES AND SRN ZONES. WILL
TRIM POPS AND SNOW WORDING ACCORDINGLY AS WELL AS DOWNGRADE OR
DROP THE WARNING AND TRIM THE ADVISORY IN AREAL EXTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRECIPITIATION SLOWLY COMING TO AN END AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE NE AND AS LIFT DIMINISHING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW WORK EWD FROM ERN NM AND ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AS
THE UPPER LOW OVER NM CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. BIGGER ISSUE IS IFR AND MVFR CIGS.
THINGS MORE OPTIMISTIC KCDS WHO MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
AFTN. KPVW AND KLBB SHOULD STAY IFR OR LOW END MVFR. CLEARING
EXPECTED EARLY EVENING...WHICH MAY SET UP POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT ON TOP OF THE SNOW FIELD. CONFIDENCE IN
THAT SCENARIO LOW ATTM AND WILL RUN WITH VFR CONDITIONS FROM EARLY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND OCCASINALLY PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW. SNOW WILL ALSO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AT KCDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN KPVW AND KLBB AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD BE
PERIODS WHERE CEILINGS BRIEFLY GO MVFR BUT A SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEST OF US UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH USUALLY
PRECLUDES ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. EVENTUALLY WE SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS CEILINGS LIFT
AND CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WELL...ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER EVENT AND ANOTHER CASE WHERE MOTHER
NATURE DECIDED TO LAUGH AT OUR FORECAST.  IN THIS CASE...AS IS MOST
OF THE CASES WHERE SNOWFALL DOES NOT DEVELOP AS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
OUR AREA...DRY AIR FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID-LEVEL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW TO
DEVELOP. ALSO HAMPERING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT FOR THE MOST PART HOVERED RIGHT AROUND 32
DEGREES.  TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT MORE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS BUT A LARGE SWATH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF FREEZING.  THERE ARE STILL A FEW HOLDOUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS THAT ARE ABOVE FREEZING BUT THESE SHOULD FALL BELOW
AROUND SUNRISE.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE INITIAL AREA OF LIFT WITH THE TROF
PUSHING OUT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.  THE SECOND AREA OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WAS SLOWLY DIVING SOUTH.  THIS WILL
KEEP THE TROF AXIS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY.  MUCH OF THE LIFT WITH THE SECOND CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS NEW MEXICO BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF WEAK LIFT THAT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  THE DRIER AIR
AROUND 700HPA WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE DAY AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO RISE BACK TO
AROUND 30 TO 31 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS WHERE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL OCCUR.

HARD TO GET ANY ADDITIONAL REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AT THIS EARLY
HOUR BUT 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE PORTION OF THE AREA UNDER THE
WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ON THE GROUND WITH GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.  ROAD CONDITIONS AROUND
THE HUB CITY APPEAR TO BE SLUSHY WITH A FEW ICY SPOTS REPORTED ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.  GRAND TOTAL BY THE TIME THINGS ARE DONE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE REDUCED AMOUNTS WE HAVE IN OUR
GRAPHICAST...6-8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...1-4
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.  CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HANDLE THIS NICELY AND WILL CONTINUE THESE
TO THEIR COMPLETION TIME.

WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO SEE SNOWFALL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TROF AXIS
APPROACHES THE REGION AND THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD.  THERE STILL MAY BE SOME SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE SNOW SHUT OFF.  CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SET UP A
CHILLY MORNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGH SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND TEENS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CAPROCK...HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IF WINDS GO CALM
AND SKIES MANAGE TO TOTALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S WINTER
STORM. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BECOMES SITUATED
BETWEEN TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT AND
RIDGING OVER THE WEST. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT
A SOLID WARMING TREND...THOUGH WE HAVE TEMPERED THE WARMING A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WHERE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW PACK
WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE. EVEN SO...HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S SHOULD
BECOME COMMONPLACE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND /ASIDE
FROM MAYBE A FEW 40S LINGERING NORTHWEST/...WITH PLENTY OF SUN TO GO
AROUND. THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
SHIFTED EASTWARD MORE SQUARELY OVER THE REGION. ONE OR MORE
DISTURBANCES MAY ATTEMPT TO RIDE UP AND INTO/THROUGH THE RIDGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THEY WILL BE
ABLE TO MUSTER LOCALLY WOULD BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29   8  36  13 / 100  10   0   0
TULIA         30  12  38  21 / 100  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     30  15  38  22 / 100  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     31  14  39  21 / 100  40  10   0
LUBBOCK       32  16  40  22 / 100  40  10   0
DENVER CITY   32  19  39  24 / 100  60  10   0
BROWNFIELD    32  18  40  22 / 100  50  10   0
CHILDRESS     35  23  45  28 / 100  20  10   0
SPUR          32  22  44  26 / 100  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     36  27  47  27 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ021-
022-027-028-033-034-039>042.

&&

$$

07

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