Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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786
FXUS64 KLUB 162139
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW IN ITS
WAKE. RADAR RETURNS HAD INDICATED ANOTHER MODERATE AREA OF SNOW NEAR
TUCUMCARI IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT THIS HAS RECENTLY FIZZLED INTO A MUCH
LIGHTER POCKET OF ACTIVITY. AS EXPECTED...THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS HAVE SEEN THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATION TOTALS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
LATTER AMOUNT OCCURRING IN HART. WILL SEE POTENTIALLY UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO FARTHER WEST.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW AS WET BULB COOLING AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION HAVE BROUGHT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING THUS LEADING
TO SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM FOR NOW BARRING ANY
UNFORESEEN DEVELOPMENTS.

FRESH SNOW PACK AND CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. GENERALLY
FAVORED COOLER LOCALES IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS MAY EVEN MAKE A RUN AT SINGLE DIGITS WHILE THE
SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD NEAR THE 20 DEGREE
MARK. WIND CHILLS WILL RESIDE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY WILL BRING A DRY AND COLD START TO THE WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. DECREASING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
MAKE FOR A PICTURE PERFECT DAY...BUT THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
STAY LOCKED IN PLACE ONLY ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS RISING FROM MAINLY 40S TUESDAY TO
MAINLY 50S THURSDAY. WHILE LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD THURSDAY AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...AND YET ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT IN IT/S WAKE COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE REGARDING
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN...AND OFFER
LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF THE SYSTEM
DIGS DEEP ENOUGH THAT MOISTURE RETURN COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH BLENDED
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT. AND AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS...DRY WESTERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK AT SOME
POINT DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR LIKELY
TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        10  35  16  43  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         11  36  16  44  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     14  37  19  45  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     15  38  20  46  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       16  39  20  46  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   19  39  21  46  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    18  38  21  46  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     17  39  21  49  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          17  40  22  49  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     20  43  23  51  32 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

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