Area Forecast Discussion
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399
FXUS64 KLUB 252330
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH SAT TO KEEP VFR CONDS INTACT.
MODEST SLY GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE ALREADY TAPERING OFF...BUT
THESE WILL RESUME BY LATE SAT MRNG MAINLY AT CDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA RIDGE OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
HOT/ABOVE NORMAL HEAT...AS 20Z METARS NOTED TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK...TO UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS OFF THE CAPROCK. COULD SEE TEMPS WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS PEAK HEATING SETTLES IN. GENERALLY LIGHT
S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WERE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS THE
FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SPEEDS
OF 15-20 MPH WERE OCCURRING...COURTESY OF A NEARBY SFC TROUGH THAT
HAS DEEPENED EVER-SO SLIGHTLY. AGITATED CU- FIELDS/SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO...WHICH WERE PROMPTED BY OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. RATHER WEAK SWRLY FLOW MAY
FILTER SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...BUT LIKELY
NOT ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENDURES /SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT
DAYS/.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL ENSUE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS EXPECTED. THESE WARM NOCTURNAL CONDITIONS COULD PUSH HEAT
INDICES TO AOA 100 DEGREES MORE SO ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
/105 DEGREES/. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEAT RELATED
HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY: THE UA RIDGE
WILL PERSIST...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS...STORMS IGNITING ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO MAY TRANSLATE TOWARDS
THE PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN...AND SLIM CHANCES OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ACROSS THE CWA WILL EXIST. FOCUS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO AN UA LOW
TRAVERSING SRN CANADA THAT WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.

LONG TERM...
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE RETROGRADES WEST WITH THE UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SASKATCHEWAN...CARVING OUT A CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS IT CROSSES THE
BORDER INTO THE LAND OF 10000 LAKES SATURDAY EVENING. BEFORE THE
WELCOME SUMMER RELIEF...SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE AND LOCATIONS IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS LIKELY EXPERIENCING TRIPLE DIGITS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM
SECTOR AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FURTHER AIDS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. NOT
EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF COVERAGE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CONTINUED
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGING.

UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND BACK THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT. PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 1.5-2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO HIGHER
RAINFALL CHANCES. WHILE THE TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS JUNCTURE...INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO LATE TUESDAY ALONG WITH HINTS OF ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WITH THE CEMENTED MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SET OFF A MORE
WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF
AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX. WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD THEN PRESENT ANOTHER
APPRECIABLE OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS AHEAD OF A DOSE OF UPPER SUPPORT.
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL THEN DICTATE
CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK...BUT WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WEEK LOOKING TO OCCUR THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE CURRENTLY PROGGED
VEERING FLOW ALOFT...WOULD THINK PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE ON THE
DECLINE AND BEGIN FOCUSING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AS MONSOONAL FLOW
RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  98  66  95  66 /   0   0  10  20  20
TULIA         68  98  68  96  68 /   0   0  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  96  68  96  68 /   0   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     68  99  70  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  99  71  98  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  98  71  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  99  71  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 102  74 102  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          70  99  72 100  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73 102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93

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