Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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352
FXUS64 KLUB 150452
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2014

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE KLBB
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY SLOW MOVEMENT TO THESE STORMS IS
EXPECTED. THEREFORE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IF ANY STORMS WILL
IMPACT THE KLBB TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NARROW AXIS OF TSTORMS PRESENTLY UNDERWAY FROM THE SACRAMENTOS TO
NEAR SANTA ROSA/NM ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF OUR AREA LATER
TODAY DUE TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PROPAGATION POTENTIAL INTO AN
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE.

EFFECTS OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE ON THE DECLINE OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ASSUMES A MORE WESTERLY
LONGITUDE. THIS PROCESS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
/CURRENTLY NEAR THE COLORADO PLATEAU/ THAT WILL TRACK SLOWLY E-SE
AND GARNER WEAKLY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE OPTIMISTIC IN SHIFTING A PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...HOWEVER THE RICHEST PWATS ARE PROGGED TO RESIDE IN OUR NWRN
ZONES WHERE VALUES COULD REACH 1.5 INCHES. THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE
NEAR A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT OVERALL LIFT IS OF THE TYPICAL
MUTED VARIETY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW
EXPECTED FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W TROUGH AND A MEAGER 30 KNOT JET
MAX AT 300MB. NONETHELESS...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH THESE
FACTORS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SPOTTY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN
IN OUR NW ZONES BEFORE OUTFLOWS AND WEAK NW STEERING FLOW EXPAND
THESE CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z.

ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES ARE SHOWN TO RISE A TOUCH BY TOMORROW...HAVE
KEPT MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GIVEN PERIODS OF DENSE
CIRRUS SPILLING AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
MUCH OF ALL OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING. THIS SHOULD SECURE A RATHER
TYPICAL WARM STRETCH OF MID-AUGUST WEATHER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
PEAKING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...PERHAPS GRADUALLY DECREASING
TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

AT LEAST LOW STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
AS ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM FRIDAY/S CONVECTION COMBINE
WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME. IN ADDITION...A
COUPLE OF WEAK/SUBTLE EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COULD PROVIDE
A LITTLE LIFT AS THEY ROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. ALSO...A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...THOUGH IT STILL APPEARS THIS
FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH. THINGS
BECOME LESS CLEAR NEXT WEEK AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE A
MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING SOMEWHERE OVER THE
LONE STAR STATE. THE ECMWF FAVORS A FURTHER WEST POSITION FOR THIS
WEAKNESS WHICH WOULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THOUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND DGEX KEEP
THE WEAKNESS TO OUR EAST WITH A GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE UPPER HIGH...THUS KEEPING THE SOUTH PLAINS GENERALLY
DRY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE POP/WX FIELDS FOR NEXT WEEK UNTIL THINGS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  65  93  64 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         65  93  67  95  66 /   0  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     64  93  66  94  66 /   0  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  66  94  67 /   0  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  69  95  70 /   0  10  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   65  94  66  94  67 /   0  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  95  67  95  68 /   0  10  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     69  98  72 101  72 /   0  10  20  20  20
SPUR          67  96  68  99  70 /   0   0  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     70  99  72 101  72 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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