Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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478
FXUS64 KLUB 240543
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS AT LBB AND PVW MAY TEMPORARILY RISE TO MVFR IN THE HOURS
AHEAD BEFORE CLEARING OUT AND GOING VFR BY 12Z...PERHAPS A BIT
SOONER. MVFR CIGS AT CDS MEANWHILE LOOK TO HOLD AT THESE LEVELS
UNTIL VFR BY 12Z AS WELL. AN OUTSIDE THREAT EXISTS FOR SOME FOG
AFTER THESE CIGS CLEAR...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THIS AND
ADD MENTION IF CONFIDENCE GROWS. CALM WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT
W-NW BY DAYBREAK.

&&

PREV FORECAST DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND SHORT WAVE EDGING TO THE EAST. UPPER HEIGHT RISES WILL FOLLOW
LEADING TO A MODERATE AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATING THROUGH
EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SAN
JOAQUINVALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL PULL EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE ON TAP...THOUGH WE MAY
NOT WARM AS FAST AS DESIRED.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THERE IS SOME RISK THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD
THICKEN DURING THE EVENING BUT WE ARE NOT SEEING STRONG SIGNALS FOR
FOG AT LEAST. AND MODEST MID LEVEL DRYING WILL OCCUR SO THAT THE
STREAKS OF MID CLOUDS EMERGING THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES SHOULD END THIS EVENING. BUT AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN ADVANCE OF THAT APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE BULK
OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SPAN TO OUR EAST...BUT WE
ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ONTO WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS
ROLLING PLAINS AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. A MUCH MILDER DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY...INTO THE 40S...BUT HARD TO JUSTIFY CLIMBING MUCH ABOVE
THAT RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR
EAST AND PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS. TONIGHT MEANWHILE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN COLD...BUT NOT TOO MUCH COLDER THAN OUR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF SE NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. LOCATIONS WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO HOLD OFF ANY FROZEN
PRECIP BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF A WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY.

RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL DRY US OUT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
GUIDANCE TRENDING WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT
RUNS FROM THE END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVG 15-20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW SETS UP THURSDAY AND IS PERSISTENT THROUGH
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS ACROSS
THE WEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THIS PATTERN UNTIL SUNDAY AND WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES DICTATING PRECIP
TYPE...WHEN THE ECMWF PLUNGES MORE COLD AIR ACROSS WEST
TEXAS...WHILE THE GFS EJECTS A WAVE WELL TO THE NORTH KEEPING US
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH AND WARMER
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WENT WITH THE SUPER BLEND THAT HAS US MUCH TOO WARM
AND ANY PRECIP SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WOULD BE
RAIN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93

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