Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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683
FXUS64 KLUB 211131
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT MAY LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS. KLBB
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANY LIGHT RAIN. AT THE VERY
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WIDESPREAD FOG MAY DEVELOP BUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH HAS SUPPLIED A HEALTHY PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
JET WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AS IT
APPROACHES WEST TEXAS. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS IS NOT CLEARLY
AS DEFINED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS IT CROSSES OVER WEST TEXAS.
ALSO...WHAT IS LEFT OF IT HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE
WILL BE A NOTABLE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AROUND THE TIME THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROVIDES SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. MID LEVELS
DRIED OUT YESTERDAY BUT TOP DOWN MOISTENING SHOULD QUICKLY OCCUR
THIS MORNING. LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
SO MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE EJECTING OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MODEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO FOLLOW FROM THE
WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
WARMER YET FOR SUNDAY AND WE FOLLOW SUITE WITH THIS FORECAST.
ZONAL FLOW TO FOLLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOLUTIONS NOW
MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY FASTER FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY MONDAY
OUT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN LEADING TO BREEZY OR LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS
MONDAY ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID OR UPPER
80S MANY AREAS. A MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A SOMEWHAT RELAXED SURFACE GRADIENT LIKELY BY TUESDAY...AND
PERHAPS EVEN A TAD COOLER AIR SEEPING INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS.
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER-TYPE DAY...WHILE
UNCLEAR IF WINDS TUESDAY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO REMAIN IN ELEVATED
CATEGORY THOUGH SEEMS MORE PROBABLE EASTERN AND/OR SOUTHERN
ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD EDGE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BUCKLING UPPER FLOW
MAY REINFORCE COOLER AIR BY THURSDAY BUT PATTERN BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NOW LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A NEW CUT-OFF LOW FORMING NEAR
BAJA. MODIFICATION LOOKS PLAUSIBLE NOW BY FRIDAY. AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAT SEEMED SLIGHTLY POSSIBLE YESTERDAY WITH A TROUGH IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CENTERED ON NEXT THURSDAY NOW LOOK MORE
FLEETING. WE HAVE TRIMMED SHOWER CHANCES BACK JUST TO NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY ANTICIPATING POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL MODEL DRYING WITH
LATER RUNS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  40  76  41 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         66  42  78  44 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  43  77  45 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  42  78  44 /  30  20   0   0
LUBBOCK       65  44  79  46 /  30  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  42  77  45 /  60  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    62  43  77  46 /  40  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  49  78  50 /  10  20   0   0
SPUR          65  48  78  49 /  40  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  50  77  50 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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