Area Forecast Discussion
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767
FXUS64 KLUB 161641 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER A FAIR AMOUNT OF DELIBERATION WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO MAKE
MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN-COOLED AIR
ACROSS THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE SLOW
TO MODIFY SO HAVE TAKEN HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE
AREAS. WE ARE SEEING PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CAPROCK..ALTHOUGH
WITH THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WARMING TEMPS WE EXPECT MUCH OF
THE AREA TO FILL BACK IN WITH A BL CUMULUS FIELD. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS NOT A LOT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON.
ONE OF THE CERTAINTIES IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A RICH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WITH PWATS ABOUT 1.5 INCHES ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. AND WE HAVE MODESTLY ENERGETIC AND COOL NW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE...THERE IS A BOUNDARY ARCING FROM NEAR CAPROCK CANYONS
SEWD INTO SRN COTTLE COUNTY...BUT THE WIND FIELD IN THIS AREA IS
PRETTY WEAK AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY ERODE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. UNEVEN HEATING SHOULD ERODE THE WEAK CAPS IN
SPOTS...PERHAPS PREFERENTIALLY ACROSS THE WRN SPLNS...BUT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LACKING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH...WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE CWA...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE VERY CONDITIONAL...TIED TO ANY DISCRETE CELLS WHICH DEVELOP AND
CAN TAP INTO LOCALLY HIGHER CAPES VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR...WHICH
AT THIS POINT WOULD APPEAR TO COINCIDE BEST ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE FROM PARMER COUNTY TO BRISCOE COUNTY. THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF SUPERCELL
DVLPMNT AND THE MOST STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE ZONES...WHERE
THE BEST LOW-LVL SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED. STILL...AN
ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS
THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND COULD EXPLOIT THE
BETTER LOW-LVL HELICITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE BIGGEST
THREAT...WITH SLOW STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SPLNS THROUGH THE FAR SE
TX PANHANDLE...AND TO LOWER THEM A BIT OUT WEST FOR THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A WEAK/SMALL SHORTWAVE AND WILL
LIKELY EXIT THE CWA BY 11 AM OR SO...WITH CLEARING SKIES WORKING
IN FROM THE NW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

AVIATION...
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS STEERING VERY NEAR KLBB EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY SKIM PAST KCDS IN NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF MVFR OR EVEN NEAR IFR LEVEL CLOUD
HEIGHTS ALTHOUGH UNABLE TO IDENTIFY LAYERS GIVEN THICK MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
EASTERN WYOMING WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST WHILE DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SPILL FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATE MORNING
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHAST WITH A BREAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES DURING AFTER NOON. CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REFORM
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST LATER TODAY WITH GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
TO IMPACT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IMPROVES IN ADVANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER WYOMING. THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS IS MUCH IN
QUESTION HOWEVER FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY ESPECIALLY...WITH
FAVORED ZONE CONTINUING TO THE NORTHEAST OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXPECTED TO BISECT OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES FROM THE REST BY LATER
TODAY. MOST SOLUTIONS DO NOT SPREAD THE BULK OF LIFT CLOSE TO THE
AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT IF NOT EVEN EARLY THURSDAY. IN ADVANCE...
HOWEVER...A WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE GATHERING AFTER A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THIS MORNING. BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST FLOW. AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE DISCUSSED...THIS MAY
PRESENT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LONG
AS ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY DISCRETE. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO
INDICATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
CONDITIONAL OF COURSE ON DEVELOPMENT. WE RAN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z THINKING A RISK FOR THE DISCRETE EARLY STORMS
JUSTIFIES FLOOD RISK EARLY TONIGHT...WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD STEER CLOSE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
SHARPER WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
SOLUTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY FAR APART ON THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS
EVENT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM ABOVE TUESDAY LEVELS THOUGH
MORNING SHOWER OR CLOUD COVER WILL MASK POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
LATE AFTERNOON BOOST ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE
MOISTURE SHOULD THIN THE MOST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOOKS TO BE ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW FAST THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS A TOUCH HERE AS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STILL BE
IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO PROVIDE FOR SOME CONTINUED LARGE SCALE
LIFT AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD ALSO BRING A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM EAST OF THE STATE
LINE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE BATTLING A
SUBSIDING AIRMASS AND SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. A
SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVENING FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO ALONG THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE...BUT RISING HEIGHTS
WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE
FAIRLY SPARSE. CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE
INTO SATURDAY...BUT PERSISTENT HINTS OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES COMBINED
WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR STORMS WARRANTED FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND
WILL WARM BACK TO NORMAL FOLLOWING A COOLER PERIOD THURSDAY/FRIDAY
IN THE 70S/80S.

SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A MORE DEFINITIVE DRY/HOT
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS EASTERN EXPANSION INTO THE
NATION/S MIDSECTION. WHILE SUNDAY MAY BE SPARED SOMEWHAT FROM THE
HEAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF RECENT RAINFALL...RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH TRIPLE DIGITS CERTAINLY A FIRM POSSIBILITY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY IN SUBSEQUENT
DAYS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE ANTICYCLONIC CORE LOOKS TO REMAIN
ANCHORED WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY TIME OF PEAK INTENSITY.
ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WOULD ALSO
AID IN KEEPING ITS POSITION FARTHER WEST...BUT AN APPRECIABLE DOSE
OF MID SUMMER WARMTH CERTAINLY APPEARS IN THE OFFING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  60  76  59  83 /  40  70  20  20  10
TULIA         85  63  75  59  81 /  50  80  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     86  64  76  59  82 /  40  70  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     89  67  81  62  85 /  30  50  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       88  69  81  64  86 /  40  60  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   91  67  87  63  87 /  20  40  30  20  10
BROWNFIELD    90  67  84  62  86 /  20  50  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     86  67  77  63  86 / 100  90  40  10  10
SPUR          90  71  83  64  86 /  40  60  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     91  73  89  66  89 /  30  60  50  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

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