369
FXUS64 KLUB 200915
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
415 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH IF ANY HEADWAY TODAY. THE FIRST IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY...ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO MIX QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS WILL BACK
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING
TAKES PLACE AND A DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
ANOTHER TOASTY DAY IS THUS ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 100 SOUTHEAST. ELEVATED TO
BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
THE SECOND DISTURBANCE INDUCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHERLY AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
WARRANT MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME VIRGA SHOWERS DEVELOP AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BRING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS OR HEAT BURSTS TONIGHT INTO MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION FOR THIS WEEK THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DETAILS WHICH DESERVE SOME MENTION. MAIN STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
DRAGGING TROUGH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OFF
THE AREA BY 00Z. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW COMES ASHORE. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE THEN KEEPS THE ENERGY BLOCKED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES
AND YIELDS PROTRACTED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY THOUGH ITS EFFECTS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER
PROGS INDICATED. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THOUGH WHILE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION...THERE WILL EXISTS FOR A FEW HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. THAT
SAID...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS FOR EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE FCST. MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW
LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVING THE DRYLINE
ALL THE WAY TO NEW MEXICO. ONCE AGAIN...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. BY THURSDAY...DRYLINE
PROGRESSION WILL BE DAMPENED THUS REMAINING NEAR THE STATE LINE
WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH PW UP IN THE
25MM RANGE WE COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND ON POPS FOR THU/FRI AND EVEN INTO
SATURDAY THOUGH WE MAY SEE STORMS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...AS TIME PROGRESSES...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE STORMS
BEGIN TO FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH
COULD MOVE INTO THE WEST EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONCERN WEST OF A VIGO PARK
TO LITTLEFIELD LINE. THIS IS WHERE WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AT AROUND
20 MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AREAWIDE. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT GIVEN THE
MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM GUTHRIE TO JUSTICEBURG AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THE LLJ WILL MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND THE EXTRA
DISTANCE FOR HIGHER MOMENTUM TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OFF THE
CAPROCK...WILL LEAVE THIS AREA OUT OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS TODAY.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE TX/NM STATE LINE COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 49 77 54 90 / 0 10 10 10 0
TULIA 88 52 80 55 91 / 0 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 90 54 81 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 89 56 83 59 91 / 0 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 92 56 83 60 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 89 58 84 58 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 91 58 84 59 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 97 57 86 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 10
SPUR 96 58 87 60 94 / 0 10 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 101 62 89 63 97 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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