Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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049
FXUS64 KLUB 110443
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT...ENDING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KLBB AND KPVW AROUND 12Z...WITH
CURRENT THINKING THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING
AS MIXING ENSUES WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 15-20
KNOTS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT ANY OF THE THREE TERMINALS...SO WILL
KEEP MENTION SILENT FOR NOW AND MONITOR OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE WHETHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUB-VFR...AND IF SO...FOR
HOW LONG. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING AGAIN
REMAIN TOO UNCERTAIN TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE DRY AT THE MOMENT IT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST DURING
THE DAY ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. BACKED
LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL LEAD TO A SHARP DRYLINE
NEAR THE STATE LINE. A RICH SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY FILTER NORTH
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY. WITH MUCH STRONGER MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
SPREAD EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO RESPECTABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TONIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION WILL LARGELY REMAIN
CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER WE CAN SEE INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE WEAKER WITH DRYLINE
CONVERGENCE. WE WILL STILL SEE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY VALUES
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL TO NO
CAPPING. GOOD LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD LIKELY LEAD
TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVING A GOOD CAPABILITY OF ROTATING.
FURTHERMORE...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ALL THE WAY INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ALTHOUGH TORNADOES
ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE HAIL.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ALLOWING GOOD
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL IMPACT THE
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS THIS WOULD LEAVE A PLETHORA OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE WILL TRY TO MIX
EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT AMOUNTS OF
MIXING AND AS A RESULT...DIFFERENT LOCATIONS FOR THE DRYLINE. GFS
HAS IT JUST WEST OF THE CAPROCK BY SUNDAY EVENING WHILE THE NAM12
KEEPS THE DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE AND MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SB/MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1200-2200 J/KG FROM
WEST TO EAST RESPECTIVELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND PROFILES
HOWEVER ARE MUCH WEAKER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO TOMORROW SO THREAT
COULD BE MORE FROM PULSE SEVERE RATHER THAN ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION. MODELS ALSO HAVE LITTLE CAP IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY WHEREAS A BIT OF A CAP WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS
UNFOLD TOMORROW FOR CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND KEPT THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE CAPROCK.

AS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY SLIDE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY SUNRISE MONDAY. STRONG LIFT
AHEAD OF THE LOW ALONG WITH SURFACE LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS MONDAY MORNING. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER MOVING THE FRONT SOUTH AND HAVE IT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATTER TWO SOLUTIONS WOULD
PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO
A LONGER PERIOD OF SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL FORCING. INCREASED POPS
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY MORNING BUT MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO MONDAY NIGHT
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE CONTAMINATED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO
IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW REPORTS OF HAIL AS THE CLOSED
LOW ALLOWS SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE AND INCREASE LAPSE
RATES ALOFT.

FRONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ON MONDAY BUT
WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL HELP SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION AFTER THE COLD FRONT MIXES
MOST OF IT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER IT PASSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP
DRIVE ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. REMAINS A BIT EARLY
TOO TELL IF ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  45  75  51 /   0  20  30  20
TULIA         67  47  73  55 /  10  20  40  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  73  56 /  10  20  40  20
LEVELLAND     69  51  77  56 /   0  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       70  51  75  58 /   0  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   70  55  78  56 /   0  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    70  54  77  57 /  10  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     70  49  74  59 /  10  20  40  30
SPUR          69  51  74  58 /  10  30  40  30
ASPERMONT     72  54  76  61 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31

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