Area Forecast Discussion
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725
FXUS64 KLUB 240247 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
947 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
DESPITE THE DRYLINE LINGERING ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
INCREASINGLY DEEP NOCTURNAL INVERSION. WE HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS AND DROP THE REMAINING COUNTIES OF THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN OUR CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
THE THREAT OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO END AT KCDS SHORTLY AFTER 00
UTC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR A TIME BEHIND THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FIRST LEAD WAVE HAS LARGELY DONE MADE ITS IMPACT AHEAD OF MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WHICH REMAINS OUT NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AT
MID-DAY.  AREA OF MODEST DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OUT EAST WITH HAIL /TO GOLF
BALLS/ AND WIND /60 PLUS MPH/ THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS ORIENTED SW/NE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING.  IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE INITIATION TIME GIVEN
THE NEBULOUS NATURE OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH THE EASTWARD MIX HAS BEGUN
IN EARNEST.  THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHICH ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
A DRYLINE BULGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RISK
WITH A TRAILING MCS POSSIBLE DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN JUST HOW LONG THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND
THERE IS SOME SMALL RISK THAT INCREASING MOISTURE IN A BACKED WIND
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME EXTENT INVOF
KCDS.  THEREAFTER...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  WILL STILL REMAIN 10-15
PCT POPS OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TRENDING SHARPLY DOWN THEREAFTER AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH SKIES CLEARING
NICELY.  OVERALL...A NICE SPRING DAY.

LONG TERM...
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNLIKELY BUT CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN
ZERO. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT CONVECTS ON FRIDAY
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE FEW FACTORS GOING FOR IT
WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL EXIST INTO THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO THE NAM. ANALOG GUIDANCE SURPRISINGLY
INDICATES A FEW PREVIOUS SEVERE EVENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. NEUTRAL
HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE OVERHEAD IN BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT AND A DEEP
TROUGH DIGGING OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN A BROAD
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY WITH A FURIOUSLY DEEPENING SYSTEM.
AT THE MOMENT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST OF THE ANTICIPATED
SEVERE EVENTS WILL EVADE THE FA BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AROUND 250M IN ONLY 12 HOURS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROXIMATELY 16MB DROP IN 24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE REMAINS MURKY BUT THE LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS DO KEEP THE
DRYLINE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BACKED AT LEAST
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES AT THUNDER MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE EVENING
AS A PACIFIC FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE. PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2KJ/KG WILL EXIST EAST OF THE RETREATING
DRYLINE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS.

IF THE WIND DOES NOT BLOW ENOUGH ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY WILL BE A
REAL TREAT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  74  44  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  75  47  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  75  49  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  77  52  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  77  53  90  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  77  51  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  78  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  78  49  88  62 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          56  79  53  91  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  53  93  64 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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