Area Forecast Discussion
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081
FXUS64 KLUB 232105
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH BUT NOT LETTING UP ON SPEEDS. STRONG WARMING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY.
MID LEVEL RADAR RETURNS WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN LIQUID. THE LIFT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE AIR
MASS BECOMES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MEAN NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. QUICK RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 60S
WITH A WEAK FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
IN THE DAY. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER NICE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A BIT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. END OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE GFS
CONTINUES TO TRY TO BRING A FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES NEEDED.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  50  22  50  26 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  53  24  51  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     29  53  25  51  29 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  53  26  50  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  54  26  51  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  53  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  53  27  51  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  58  30  53  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          34  56  31  54  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     35  57  32  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

01/14

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