Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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060
FXUS64 KLUB 181733
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 19/18Z. REMOTE CHANCE OF TSRA
NEAR KCDS 20Z-24Z. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH AT ALL TERMINALS BY 19/12Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW CHURNING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST TODAY TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SURFACE LOW VEERS WINDS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY THUS PROMOTING DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST EAST
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT IN EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CAPROCK. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX
OUT AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LOCALLY AND
SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
DRYLINE HANG UP IN VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO
JAYTON LINE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT EXPECTED AND STOUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S...LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CLOSER TO A MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C
IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR
SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS. CANNOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE
OF THESE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UNDERNEATH VIRGA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
LOW-MID TEENS...BUT ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRECLUDE CONCERNS.

AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT...AN ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH AS THEY VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 40S COME SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO WILL WORK ITS WAY S AND SE BUT GIVEN SCANT
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DONT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THIS FAR SOUTH. MORE HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN MODEST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW
BUILDING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY MIDWEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS. CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING NE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES FOR 20-30 PCT
STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MAYBE A FEW
TICKS WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  64  38 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         73  43  66  39 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  44  67  41 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  69  42 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  72  44 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          79  48  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  76  47 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/99/13

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