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852
FXUS64 KLUB 240447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO
BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF REDUCTION IN VISBYS IS
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN MODELS. THE ABUNDANT AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT VISBYS COULD DROP TO VLIFR AGAIN BY
DAYBREAK. LOW CIGS AND VISBYS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  84  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  85  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  84  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  84  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  84  55  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   56  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  89  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
716
FXUS64 KLUB 232316
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO FOG AGAIN AT
EITHER TAF SITE BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWERED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PATCHY THAN THURSDAY MORNING LEADING TO
LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF. HOWEVER...FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY
THAN LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  84  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  85  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  84  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  84  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  84  55  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   56  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  89  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
473
FXUS64 KLUB 232010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  84  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  85  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  84  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  84  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  84  55  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   56  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  89  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23
944
FXUS64 KLUB 231746
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
LARGE PATCH OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS SLOWLY ERODING BUT LIKELY TO PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
FOR MANY AREAS. WE UPDATED EARLIER IN THE SHIFT ALREADY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATE EROSION. BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY
ONCE THE CLOUDS ERODE SO CHOSE NOT TO UPDATE MAXIMUMS FOR TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS TRENDS WITH IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN PRIMARY
ISSUE. SLOW EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER KLBB ALTHOUGH THESE
FINALLY SHOULD DISSOLVE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING EARLY TONIGHT MAY
LEAD TO EARLY VISIBILITY DROP OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF KLBB BEFORE SURFACE FLOW VEERS AND DRIES SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. BEST STRATUS SIGNALS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TONIGHT ARE IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS SOUTH OF KCDS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THAT
RESTRICTIONS MAY EXTEND NORTH INTO KCDS OR WEST TO KLBB. WE WILL
INDICATE ONLY A MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT KCDS TONIGHT FOR
NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
KLBB IS MORE OR LESS AN ISLAND SURROUNDED BY IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS EVIDENT LESS THAN 15 NM SW OF
THE TERMINAL. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
TERMINAL THOUGH TIMING HAS BEEN QUITE ELUSIVE. KCDS IS CURRENTLY
BELOW MINIMUMS. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.  FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS AT BOTH SITES AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL...THINGS ARE SETTLING DOWN TO BE TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRATUS DECK WHICH CAME IN LAST EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR SKIES WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ISSUES.

LONG TERM...
THE EXITING OF THE UA TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE FA YESTERDAY...WILL MAKE WAY FOR AN UA RIDGE THAT WILL DRIFT
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THRU THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH S-SW SFC WINDS WILL SET US UP FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S /OR SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/.

BY SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SKIRT EAST OF THE
REGION...COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING
NEARBY SFC TROUGH THUS PROMOTING BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE GFS. WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRECIP IS ALSO DEPICTED TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PHASE WITH THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WHILST TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DISTURBANCE LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCE DEPICTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INHERITED
/NONMENTIONABLE/ POPS OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. WHAT
IS AGREED UPON HOWEVER IS THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK /60S AND 70S/ AND EITHER AID IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT /PER THE ECMWF/ OR KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA /PER THE GFS/.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COOL
PATTERN WILL ENSUE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE /PER
THE GFS/ OR FLATTENED UA RIDGING GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS /PER THE ECMWF/. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL COME INTO FRUITION. THE INHERITED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
COOLER SOLUTION /HIGHS TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S/ AND
HENCE...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AND AWAIT MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  82  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         51  84  52  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  83  53  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  83  54  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  84  56  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  82  55  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  55  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  89  57  89  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05
803
FXUS64 KLUB 231121
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
KLBB IS MORE OR LESS AN ISLAND SURROUNDED BY IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS EVIDENT LESS THAN 15 NM SW OF
THE TERMINAL. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
TERMINAL THOUGH TIMING HAS BEEN QUITE ELUSIVE. KCDS IS CURRENTLY
BELOW MINIMUMS. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.  FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS AT BOTH SITES AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL...THINGS ARE SETTLING DOWN TO BE TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRATUS DECK WHICH CAME IN LAST EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR SKIES WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ISSUES.

LONG TERM...
THE EXITING OF THE UA TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE FA YESTERDAY...WILL MAKE WAY FOR AN UA RIDGE THAT WILL DRIFT
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THRU THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH S-SW SFC WINDS WILL SET US UP FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S /OR SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/.

BY SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SKIRT EAST OF THE
REGION...COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING
NEARBY SFC TROUGH THUS PROMOTING BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE GFS. WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRECIP IS ALSO DEPICTED TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PHASE WITH THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WHILST TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DISTURBANCE LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCE DEPICTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INHERITED
/NONMENTIONABLE/ POPS OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. WHAT
IS AGREED UPON HOWEVER IS THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK /60S AND 70S/ AND EITHER AID IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT /PER THE ECMWF/ OR KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA /PER THE GFS/.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COOL
PATTERN WILL ENSUE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE /PER
THE GFS/ OR FLATTENED UA RIDGING GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS /PER THE ECMWF/. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL COME INTO FRUITION. THE INHERITED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
COOLER SOLUTION /HIGHS TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S/ AND
HENCE...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AND AWAIT MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  50  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         81  51  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  83  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     79  55  83  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  56  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   79  55  82  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    79  56  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  57  89  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          82  58  86  57  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  59  86  59  86 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>044.

&&

$$

99/99/26
142
FXUS64 KLUB 230805
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
305 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL...THINGS ARE SETTLING DOWN TO BE TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRATUS DECK WHICH CAME IN LAST EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR SKIES WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXITING OF THE UA TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE FA YESTERDAY...WILL MAKE WAY FOR AN UA RIDGE THAT WILL DRIFT
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THRU THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH S-SW SFC WINDS WILL SET US UP FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S /OR SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/.

BY SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SKIRT EAST OF THE
REGION...COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING
NEARBY SFC TROUGH THUS PROMOTING BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE GFS. WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRECIP IS ALSO DEPICTED TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PHASE WITH THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WHILST TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DISTURBANCE LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCE DEPICTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INHERITED
/NONMENTIONABLE/ POPS OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. WHAT
IS AGREED UPON HOWEVER IS THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK /60S AND 70S/ AND EITHER AID IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT /PER THE ECMWF/ OR KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA /PER THE GFS/.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COOL
PATTERN WILL ENSUE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE /PER
THE GFS/ OR FLATTENED UA RIDGING GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS /PER THE ECMWF/. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL COME INTO FRUITION. THE INHERITED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
COOLER SOLUTION /HIGHS TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S/ AND
HENCE...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AND AWAIT MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  50  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         81  51  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  83  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     79  55  83  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  56  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   79  55  82  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    79  56  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  57  89  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          82  58  86  57  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  59  86  59  86 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044.

&&

$$

26/29
136
FXUS64 KLUB 230444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A REPRIEVE FROM LOW STRATUS AND VISBYS IS UNDERWAY AT KLBB AND
KCDS BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RETURN
WITH CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. LOWERED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
LOW STRATUS WAS ALREADY ENCOMPASSING THE REGION ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN QUICKLY WITH
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING CHANNELED VORTICITY CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS SWINGING
THROUGH JUST BEHIND. COMBINED LIFT AND PARTIAL THINNING OF CLOUDS
THUS A TOUCH OF WARMING APPEAR TO BE LEADING TO SOMEWHAT RENEWED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EASTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ANYWAY...THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER THROUGH EVENING FAVORING EASTERN AREAS.
AFTERWARDS WITH ANY CLEARING ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SCOURING FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS WAVE. DEEPER DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH DOMINANT MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY. LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO TURN SUNNY AND WARMER WITH LITTLE
CONTENTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER WEST TEXAS LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY BREEZES AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROMOTE A NICE FALL
WARM UP...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THESE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN WINDS AS WESTERN TROUGHINESS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY. ANOTHER WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WILL KICK OFF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS FALL MORE NOTABLY WITH THE
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST
AND SHARPEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SLOWER...DEEPER SOLUTION COMES
TO FRUITION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO AT LEAST THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER WITH THIS EARLY WEEK WAVE AND WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING
AN EXPLICIT PRECIPITATION MENTION PENDING INCREASED MODEL-TO-
MODEL CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR
LATE OCTOBER. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS ITERATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  78  49  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  79  51  85  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  52  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  78  54  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  78  54  83  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  83  55  89  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          55  80  57  86  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  81  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
875
FXUS64 KLUB 230316
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1016 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW STRATUS WAS ALREADY ENCOMPASSING THE REGION ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN QUICKLY WITH
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF
REDUCED VISBYS TONIGHT. FOG LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHER CHANCES AT KLBB. THE DEGREE OF REDUCTION IS
UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CLEAR
OUT OF KLBB NEAR OR JUST AFTER 00Z WITH THESE CIGS STICKING AROUND
KCDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. SOME REDUCTION IN
VISBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KCDS BUT WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY AS KLBB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING CHANNELED VORTICITY CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS SWINGING
THROUGH JUST BEHIND. COMBINED LIFT AND PARTIAL THINNING OF CLOUDS
THUS A TOUCH OF WARMING APPEAR TO BE LEADING TO SOMEWHAT RENEWED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EASTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ANYWAY...THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER THROUGH EVENING FAVORING EASTERN AREAS.
AFTERWARDS WITH ANY CLEARING ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SCOURING FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS WAVE. DEEPER DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH DOMINANT MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY. LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO TURN SUNNY AND WARMER WITH LITTLE
CONTENTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER WEST TEXAS LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY BREEZES AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROMOTE A NICE FALL
WARM UP...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THESE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN WINDS AS WESTERN TROUGHINESS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY. ANOTHER WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WILL KICK OFF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS FALL MORE NOTABLY WITH THE
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST
AND SHARPEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SLOWER...DEEPER SOLUTION COMES
TO FRUITION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO AT LEAST THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER WITH THIS EARLY WEEK WAVE AND WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING
AN EXPLICIT PRECIPITATION MENTION PENDING INCREASED MODEL-TO-
MODEL CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR
LATE OCTOBER. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS ITERATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  78  49  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  79  51  85  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  52  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  78  54  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  78  54  83  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  83  55  89  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          55  80  57  86  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  81  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99
232
FXUS64 KLUB 222324
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF
REDUCED VISBYS TONIGHT. FOG LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHER CHANCES AT KLBB. THE DEGREE OF REDUCTION IS
UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CLEAR
OUT OF KLBB NEAR OR JUST AFTER 00Z WITH THESE CIGS STICKING AROUND
KCDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. SOME REDUCTION IN
VISBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KCDS BUT WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY AS KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING CHANNELED VORTICITY CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS SWINGING
THROUGH JUST BEHIND. COMBINED LIFT AND PARTIAL THINNING OF CLOUDS
THUS A TOUCH OF WARMING APPEAR TO BE LEADING TO SOMEWHAT RENEWED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EASTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ANYWAY...THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER THROUGH EVENING FAVORING EASTERN AREAS.
AFTERWARDS WITH ANY CLEARING ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SCOURING FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS WAVE. DEEPER DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH DOMINANT MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY. LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO TURN SUNNY AND WARMER WITH LITTLE
CONTENTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER WEST TEXAS LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY BREEZES AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROMOTE A NICE FALL
WARM UP...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THESE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN WINDS AS WESTERN TROUGHINESS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY. ANOTHER WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WILL KICK OFF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS FALL MORE NOTABLY WITH THE
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST
AND SHARPEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SLOWER...DEEPER SOLUTION COMES
TO FRUITION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO AT LEAST THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER WITH THIS EARLY WEEK WAVE AND WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING
AN EXPLICIT PRECIPITATION MENTION PENDING INCREASED MODEL-TO-
MODEL CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR
LATE OCTOBER. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS ITERATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  78  49  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  79  51  85  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  52  84  53 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  78  54  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  78  55  84  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  78  54  83  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  78  55  84  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  83  55  89  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          55  80  57  86  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  81  57  86  58 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
586
FXUS64 KLUB 222011
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
311 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING CHANNELED VORTICITY CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS SWINGING
THROUGH JUST BEHIND. COMBINED LIFT AND PARTIAL THINNING OF CLOUDS
THUS A TOUCH OF WARMING APPEAR TO BE LEADING TO SOMEWHAT RENEWED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EASTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ANYWAY...THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER THROUGH EVENING FAVORING EASTERN AREAS.
AFTERWARDS WITH ANY CLEARING ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SCOURING FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS WAVE. DEEPER DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH DOMINANT MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY. LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO TURN SUNNY AND WARMER WITH LITTLE
CONTENTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER WEST TEXAS LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY BREEZES AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROMOTE A NICE FALL
WARM UP...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THESE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN WINDS AS WESTERN TROUGHINESS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY. ANOTHER WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WILL KICK OFF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS FALL MORE NOTABLY WITH THE
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST
AND SHARPEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SLOWER...DEEPER SOLUTION COMES
TO FRUITION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO AT LEAST THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER WITH THIS EARLY WEEK WAVE AND WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING
AN EXPLICIT PRECIPITATION MENTION PENDING INCREASED MODEL-TO-
MODEL CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR
LATE OCTOBER. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS ITERATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  78  49  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  79  51  85  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  52  84  53 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  78  54  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  78  55  84  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  78  54  83  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  78  55  84  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  83  55  89  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          55  80  57  86  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  81  57  86  58 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23
095
FXUS64 KLUB 221731
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
THIRD OF OUR AREA WHILE MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LEFT TO THE
WEST. STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT LIFT SPREADING IN AND CANT CLEAR
SHOWERS YET BUT PLAN AN UPDATE TO SUPPORT THE ABOVE TRENDS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN PRECIPITATION PASSING THROUGH KCDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING NEAR KLBB BUT TOO LOW COVERAGE CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE IN
TAF THOUGH WILL UPDATE CERTAINLY IF THEY CLOSE IN FURTHER.
OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL IMPROVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING LEADS TO POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
LATER TONIGHT. THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE DOMINANT VFR. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE KLBB TERMINAL AS THIS
IS BEING WRITTEN. WHILE THE WFO CEILOMETER INDICATED A BRIEF DROP
IN CEILINGS TO AROUND 900 FT...SUCH LOWERING HAS NOT BEEN SEEN AT
THE AERODROME. THIS BAND SHOULD AFFECT KCDS LATER THIS MORNING AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING THOUGH TIMING REMAINS NEBULOUS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CURVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SRN SK THENCE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THEN SWWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY.  BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE DIV-Q
FIELDS FOR LIFT IS MOVING IN FROM ERN NM WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING.  THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE CWFA MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BEFORE SLIDING INTO N TX.

DATA SUGGEST THAT ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.  WHILE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY HIGH...GOOD COVERAGE APPEARS TO INDICATE INCREASED POPS AND
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LIKELY CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THE TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY SETS IN THUS
HELPING TO DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS AND BRINGING A QUICK END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  AT THIS POINT...THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
DONE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.  GIVEN MAIN LIFT WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HAVE PULLED POPS POST 06Z.

LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PROVIDE THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WITH WELCOMED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY...WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES
PLACE COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING UA RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE
TRANSLATION OF THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THRU
EARLY WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DRYER CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHT
FIELDS THUS SUGGESTING WARMER TEMPS ARE IN STORE /LOWER TO UPPER
80S/. BY SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE FA THANKS TO AN BROAD LOW MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS WHICH AID IN
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 80S.

THEREAFTER...LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DIFFER WRT TO THE EXACT TRAJECTORY
OF THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PROPAGATES THE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL NEED TIME TO
MOISTEN UP WHICH APPEARS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY NIGHT PER THE
GFS...WITH LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE EXTREME LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE DISTURBANCE AND
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP MORE SO ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN ITS DEPICTION OF A QUICKER RECOVERY IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING. MAINTAINING BELOW MENTIONABLE 10-13 PERCENT
POPS OFF THE CAPROCK APPEARS VALID AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS AGREED UPON
IS THE RETURN OF BELOW NORM TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  78  50  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         55  79  52  85  52 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  78  52  83  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  78  53  83  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  79  54  84  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   51  78  54  83  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  79  54  84  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  82  58  87  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          57  81  57  86  58 /  30  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  82  58  86  59 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05
936
FXUS64 KLUB 221130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE KLBB TERMINAL AS THIS
IS BEING WRITTEN. WHILE THE WFO CEILOMETER INDICATED A BRIEF DROP
IN CEILINGS TO AROUND 900 FT...SUCH LOWERING HAS NOT BEEN SEEN AT
THE AERODROME. THIS BAND SHOULD AFFECT KCDS LATER THIS MORNING AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING THOUGH TIMING REMAINS NEBULOUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CURVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SRN SK THENCE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THEN SWWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY.  BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE DIV-Q
FIELDS FOR LIFT IS MOVING IN FROM ERN NM WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING.  THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE CWFA MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BEFORE SLIDING INTO N TX.

DATA SUGGEST THAT ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.  WHILE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY HIGH...GOOD COVERAGE APPEARS TO INDICATE INCREASED POPS AND
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LIKELY CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THE TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY SETS IN THUS
HELPING TO DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS AND BRINGING A QUICK END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  AT THIS POINT...THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
DONE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.  GIVEN MAIN LIFT WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HAVE PULLED POPS POST 06Z.

LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PROVIDE THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WITH WELCOMED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY...WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES
PLACE COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING UA RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE
TRANSLATION OF THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THRU
EARLY WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DRYER CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHT
FIELDS THUS SUGGESTING WARMER TEMPS ARE IN STORE /LOWER TO UPPER
80S/. BY SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE FA THANKS TO AN BROAD LOW MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS WHICH AID IN
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 80S.

THEREAFTER...LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DIFFER WRT TO THE EXACT TRAJECTORY
OF THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PROPAGATES THE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL NEED TIME TO
MOISTEN UP WHICH APPEARS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY NIGHT PER THE
GFS...WITH LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE EXTREME LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE DISTURBANCE AND
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP MORE SO ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN ITS DEPICTION OF A QUICKER RECOVERY IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING. MAINTAINING BELOW MENTIONABLE 10-13 PERCENT
POPS OFF THE CAPROCK APPEARS VALID AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS AGREED UPON
IS THE RETURN OF BELOW NORM TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  51  78  50  83 /  40  10   0   0   0
TULIA         72  55  79  52  85 /  60  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  54  78  52  83 /  60  20  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     71  54  78  53  83 /  70  20  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  55  79  54  84 /  60  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   72  51  78  54  83 /  70  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    72  54  79  54  84 /  70  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  59  82  58  87 /  70  30  10   0   0
SPUR          75  57  81  57  86 /  60  30  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     78  59  82  58  86 /  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
792
FXUS64 KLUB 220726
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
226 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CURVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SRN SK THENCE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THEN SWWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY.  BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE DIV-Q
FIELDS FOR LIFT IS MOVING IN FROM ERN NM WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING.  THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE CWFA MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BEFORE SLIDING INTO N TX.

DATA SUGGEST THAT ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.  WHILE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY HIGH...GOOD COVERAGE APPEARS TO INDICATE INCREASED POPS AND
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LIKELY CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THE TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY SETS IN THUS
HELPING TO DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS AND BRINGING A QUICK END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  AT THIS POINT...THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
DONE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.  GIVEN MAIN LIFT WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HAVE PULLED POPS POST 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PROVIDE THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WITH WELCOMED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY...WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES
PLACE COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING UA RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE
TRANSLATION OF THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THRU
EARLY WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DRYER CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHT
FIELDS THUS SUGGESTING WARMER TEMPS ARE IN STORE /LOWER TO UPPER
80S/. BY SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE FA THANKS TO AN BROAD LOW MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS WHICH AID IN
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 80S.

THEREAFTER...LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DIFFER WRT TO THE EXACT TRAJECTORY
OF THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PROPAGATES THE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL NEED TIME TO
MOISTEN UP WHICH APPEARS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY NIGHT PER THE
GFS...WITH LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE EXTREME LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE DISTURBANCE AND
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP MORE SO ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN ITS DEPICTION OF A QUICKER RECOVERY IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING. MAINTAINING BELOW MENTIONABLE 10-13 PERCENT
POPS OFF THE CAPROCK APPEARS VALID AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS AGREED UPON
IS THE RETURN OF BELOW NORM TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  51  78  50  83 /  40  10   0   0   0
TULIA         72  55  79  52  85 /  60  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  54  78  52  83 /  60  20  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     71  54  78  53  83 /  70  20  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  55  79  54  84 /  60  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   72  51  78  54  83 /  70  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    72  54  79  54  84 /  70  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  59  82  58  87 /  70  30  10   0   0
SPUR          75  57  81  57  86 /  60  30  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     78  59  82  58  86 /  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29
580
FXUS64 KLUB 220500
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LBB THROUGH 10Z... BEFORE LOW CLOUDS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE VERY LEAST...POTENTIALLY EVEN
DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS PERIODICALLY. WHILE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR EXPLICIT MENTION.
LATER IN THE MORNING...ROUGHLY 14-16Z...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT LBB...AND LAST THROUGH THE
MID AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN LIKELY IMPACT
THE CDS TERMINAL SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE
CLEARING UP DURING THE EVENING. VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE EVENT THAT A THUNDERSTORM DIRECTLY IMPACTS
THE TERMINAL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK ENERGY THAT HAS BEEN EDGING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PHASED WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH SWINGING
BY WITH MAJORITY OF ENERGY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
AS A MOISTURE PLUME MOVES ACROSS AS WELL. MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN TOO
DISSIMILAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS LIKELY COVERAGE. ALL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE A QPF MAXIMUM IN THE AREA THOUGH DIFFER ON
LOCATION BETWEEN NORTH...SOUTH...OR OVERHEAD. UNCERTAIN WHICH LEAN
TO TAKE...THOUGH WE DID SLIGHTLY FAVOR WESTERN ZONES FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AND EASTERN FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH SOLUTIONS SEEM TO AGREE
BETTER ON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REMAINING FIELDS...WITH
THE BIGGEST PERHAPS TO INDICATE A LITTLE MORE COOLING ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH. FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...
WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHWARD WILL SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE MID/UPPER CLOUDS
CLEAR...WE COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAPROCK BY THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE WARM AND DRY LATE OCTOBER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS AND WE HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME PERIODS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD TO THE
WESTERN TROUGHING LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. OF NOTE...THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE CUTOFF LOW OVER TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INSTEAD...IT APPEARS DRY WESTERLY FLOW OF
SOME FORM WILL FOLLOW THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH PASSAGE. BEFORE
THEN...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL VISIT THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH. THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR MOIST CONVECTION MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
LIKELY RESIDING TO OUR EAST. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD AND FAVOR THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAVE KEPT THEM AT UNMENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR NOW. A MODEST COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR AND KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  69  50  78  49 /  30  40  20  10   0
TULIA         53  69  51  79  51 /  10  60  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     53  69  52  78  51 /  20  60  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     55  70  54  78  52 /  30  60  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       55  69  54  79  52 /  20  60  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   58  71  54  78  53 /  40  60  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    58  70  55  79  52 /  40  60  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     56  74  55  82  58 /  10  60  30  10   0
SPUR          56  72  56  81  56 /  10  60  30  10   0
ASPERMONT     58  76  58  82  56 /  10  50  30  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16
811
FXUS64 KLUB 212336 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KLBB BEFORE SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THE
TIMING AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING ACROSS THE TAF SITES TOMORROW THROUGH THE DAY. PROB30
GROUPS REFLECT BEST TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE STILL
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER
RAINFALL BUT THAT SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED IN TIME.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK ENERGY THAT HAS BEEN EDGING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PHASED WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH SWINGING
BY WITH MAJORITY OF ENERGY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
AS A MOISTURE PLUME MOVES ACROSS AS WELL. MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN TOO
DISSIMILAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS LIKELY COVERAGE. ALL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE A QPF MAXIMUM IN THE AREA THOUGH DIFFER ON
LOCATION BETWEEN NORTH...SOUTH...OR OVERHEAD. UNCERTAIN WHICH LEAN
TO TAKE...THOUGH WE DID SLIGHTLY FAVOR WESTERN ZONES FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AND EASTERN FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH SOLUTIONS SEEM TO AGREE
BETTER ON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REMAINING FIELDS...WITH
THE BIGGEST PERHAPS TO INDICATE A LITTLE MORE COOLING ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH. FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...
WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHWARD WILL SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE MID/UPPER CLOUDS
CLEAR...WE COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAPROCK BY THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE WARM AND DRY LATE OCTOBER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS AND WE HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME PERIODS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD TO THE
WESTERN TROUGHING LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. OF NOTE...THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE CUTOFF LOW OVER TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INSTEAD...IT APPEARS DRY WESTERLY FLOW OF
SOME FORM WILL FOLLOW THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH PASSAGE. BEFORE
THEN...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL VISIT THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH. THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR MOIST CONVECTION MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
LIKELY RESIDING TO OUR EAST. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD AND FAVOR THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAVE KEPT THEM AT UNMENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR NOW. A MODEST COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR AND KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  69  50  78  49 /  30  40  20  10   0
TULIA         53  69  51  79  51 /  10  60  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     53  69  52  78  51 /  20  60  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     55  70  54  78  52 /  30  60  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       55  69  54  79  52 /  20  60  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   58  71  54  78  53 /  40  60  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    58  70  55  79  52 /  40  60  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     56  74  55  82  58 /  10  60  30  10   0
SPUR          56  72  56  81  56 /  10  60  30  10   0
ASPERMONT     58  76  58  82  56 /  10  50  30  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99
908
FXUS64 KLUB 212018
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
318 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK ENERGY THAT HAS BEEN EDGING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PHASED WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH SWINGING
BY WITH MAJORITY OF ENERGY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
AS A MOISTURE PLUME MOVES ACROSS AS WELL. MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN TOO
DISSIMILAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS LIKELY COVERAGE. ALL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE A QPF MAXIMUM IN THE AREA THOUGH DIFFER ON
LOCATION BETWEEN NORTH...SOUTH...OR OVERHEAD. UNCERTAIN WHICH LEAN
TO TAKE...THOUGH WE DID SLIGHTLY FAVOR WESTERN ZONES FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AND EASTERN FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH SOLUTIONS SEEM TO AGREE
BETTER ON. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REMAINING FIELDS...WITH
THE BIGGEST PERHAPS TO INDICATE A LITTLE MORE COOLING ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH. FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...
WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHWARD WILL SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE MID/UPPER CLOUDS
CLEAR...WE COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAPROCK BY THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE WARM AND DRY LATE OCTOBER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS AND WE HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME PERIODS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD TO THE
WESTERN TROUGHING LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. OF NOTE...THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE CUTOFF LOW OVER TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INSTEAD...IT APPEARS DRY WESTERLY FLOW OF
SOME FORM WILL FOLLOW THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH PASSAGE. BEFORE
THEN...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL VISIT THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH. THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR MOIST CONVECTION MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONGEST LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
LIKELY RESIDING TO OUR EAST. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD AND FAVOR THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAVE KEPT THEM AT UNMENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR NOW. A MODEST COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR AND KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  69  50  78  49 /  30  40  20  10   0
TULIA         53  69  51  79  51 /  10  60  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     53  69  52  78  51 /  20  60  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     55  70  54  78  52 /  30  60  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       55  69  54  79  52 /  20  60  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   58  71  54  78  53 /  40  60  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    58  70  55  79  52 /  40  60  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     56  74  55  82  58 /  10  60  30  10   0
SPUR          56  72  56  81  56 /  10  60  30  10   0
ASPERMONT     58  76  58  82  56 /  10  50  30  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23
020
FXUS64 KLUB 211739 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1237 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE RIO GRANDE IN FAR WEST
TEXAS WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL KICK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF KLBB...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
AN INCREASE IN APPROXIMATE 5000 FOOT CLOUD DECK AROUND 22Z PLUS OR
MINUS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A NEAR MVFR CLOUD BASE AROUND
3000 FEET AT KLBB LATE IN THE NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
THOUGH NOT GOOD CORRELATION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE
REFRAINED FROM MORE THAN A SCATTERED LAYER AT THIS TIME. ALSO
HOLDING OFF JUST A BIT LONGER ON SHOWER PROSPECTS FOR KLBB DUE TO
THE SAME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. FURTHER...MOST
SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME THREAT OF SURFACE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
MAINLY WEST OF KLBB AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENTLY AT KLBB. HOPE TO CLARIFY THESE ISSUES BETTER EARLY
THIS EVENING. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN MORE CONFIDENTLY IN A SCATTERED
LAYER POSSIBLY TRENDING MORE TOWARDS A BROKEN MID DECK BY
WEDNESDAY THOUGH NOT WORTHY OF A TAF CHANGE GROUP AT THIS TIME.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS BECOMING BROKEN AT TIMES BUT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS WITH WINDS AOB 12 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. LATE TONIGHT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WORKING
TOWARD KLBB. WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING ANY PRECIP MENTION ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA...PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THIS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR EL PASO THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PHASING
WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING NWD FROM THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE BEING EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS THAT COULD ADD A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. PREVIOUS FCST STILL
LOOKS VALID WITH 30 PCT SW TAPERING LOWER MOVING NORTH AND EAST
FROM THERE. RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO PICK UP A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS TAKES PLACE AND ADVANCES TO THE
EAST...AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT ALTHOUGH MAIN SHOW WILL BE
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS A LITTLE LARGER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY SO FOG LOOKING LESS LIKELY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AS
FOR TEMPS...WILL BE HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND
LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE UA LOW PROGRESSING NEWRD FROM NW OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS SW NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...IS ANTICIPATED TO MERGE WITH AN TROUGH
THAT WILL EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SAID DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A
CONTINUAL TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CWA
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST...STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND COMING TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING /WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING/. WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.50 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME.
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF THE
NON-SEVERE VARIETY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORM TOMORROW /60S AND 70S/.

THEREAFTER...THE UA TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WHILST UA RIDGING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY. THE UA RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE FA BY SUNDAY
COURTESY OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /PER THE GFS/ BUT
THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE /ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
NORTH/. IN EITHER CASE...DECLINING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY POINTS TO TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
PROVES TO BE TRUE /WETTER GFS VERSUS THE DRYER ECMWF/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  69  51  77  50 /  30  40  20  10   0
TULIA         53  70  52  77  52 /  10  60  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     53  68  52  76  53 /  20  60  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     56  68  54  76  54 /  30  60  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       56  68  54  76  56 /  20  60  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   57  69  54  77  55 /  40  60  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    56  69  55  76  55 /  40  60  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     55  75  55  81  56 /  10  60  40  20  10
SPUR          56  71  56  79  56 /  10  70  30  20  10
ASPERMONT     56  76  57  81  58 /  10  70  30  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
926
FXUS64 KLUB 211737
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1237 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE RIO GRANDE IN FAR WEST
TEXAS WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL KICK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF KLBB...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
AN INCREASE IN APPROXIMATE 5000 FOOT CLOUD DECK AROUND 22Z PLUS OR
MINUS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A NEAR MVFR CLOUD BASE AROUND
3000 FEET AT KLBB LATE IN THE NIGHT OR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
THOUGH NOT GOOD CORRELATION BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE
REFRAINED FROM MORE THAN A SCATTERED LAYER AT THIS TIME. ALSO
HOLDING OFF JUST A BIT LONGER ON SHOWER PROSPECTS FOR KLBB DUE TO
THE SAME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. FURTHER...MOST
SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME THREAT OF SURFACE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
MAINLY WEST OF KLBB AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENTLY AT KLBB. HOPE TO CLARIFY THESE ISSUES BETTER LATER
EARLY THIS EVENING. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN MORE CONFIDENTLY IN A
SCATTERED LAYER POSSIBLY TRENDING MORE TOWARDS A BROKEN MID DECK
BY WEDNESDAY THOUGH NOT WORTHY OF A TAF CHANGE GROUP AT THIS TIME.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS BECOMING BROKEN AT TIMES BUT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS WITH WINDS AOB 12 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. LATE TONIGHT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WORKING
TOWARD KLBB. WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING ANY PRECIP MENTION ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA...PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THIS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR EL PASO THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PHASING
WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING NWD FROM THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE BEING EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS THAT COULD ADD A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. PREVIOUS FCST STILL
LOOKS VALID WITH 30 PCT SW TAPERING LOWER MOVING NORTH AND EAST
FROM THERE. RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO PICK UP A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS TAKES PLACE AND ADVANCES TO THE
EAST...AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT ALTHOUGH MAIN SHOW WILL BE
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS A LITTLE LARGER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY SO FOG LOOKING LESS LIKELY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AS
FOR TEMPS...WILL BE HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND
LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE UA LOW PROGRESSING NEWRD FROM NW OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS SW NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...IS ANTICIPATED TO MERGE WITH AN TROUGH
THAT WILL EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SAID DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A
CONTINUAL TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CWA
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST...STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND COMING TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING /WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING/. WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.50 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME.
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF THE
NON-SEVERE VARIETY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORM TOMORROW /60S AND 70S/.

THEREAFTER...THE UA TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WHILST UA RIDGING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY. THE UA RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE FA BY SUNDAY
COURTESY OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /PER THE GFS/ BUT
THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE /ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
NORTH/. IN EITHER CASE...DECLINING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY POINTS TO TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
PROVES TO BE TRUE /WETTER GFS VERSUS THE DRYER ECMWF/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  69  51  77  50 /  30  40  20  10   0
TULIA         53  70  52  77  52 /  10  60  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     53  68  52  76  53 /  20  60  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     56  68  54  76  54 /  30  60  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       56  68  54  76  56 /  20  60  20  10   0
DENVER CITY   57  69  54  77  55 /  40  60  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    56  69  55  76  55 /  40  60  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     55  75  55  81  56 /  10  60  40  20  10
SPUR          56  71  56  79  56 /  10  70  30  20  10
ASPERMONT     56  76  57  81  58 /  10  70  30  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
595
FXUS64 KLUB 211119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS BECOMING BROKEN AT TIMES BUT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS WITH WINDS AOB 12 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. LATE TONIGHT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WORKING
TOWARD KLBB. WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING ANY PRECIP MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA...PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THIS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR EL PASO THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PHASING
WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING NWD FROM THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE BEING EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS THAT COULD ADD A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. PREVIOUS FCST STILL
LOOKS VALID WITH 30 PCT SW TAPERING LOWER MOVING NORTH AND EAST
FROM THERE. RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO PICK UP A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS TAKES PLACE AND ADVANCES TO THE
EAST...AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT ALTHOUGH MAIN SHOW WILL BE
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS A LITTLE LARGER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY SO FOG LOOKING LESS LIKELY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AS
FOR TEMPS...WILL BE HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND
LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE UA LOW PROGRESSING NEWRD FROM NW OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS SW NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...IS ANTICIPATED TO MERGE WITH AN TROUGH
THAT WILL EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SAID DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A
CONTINUAL TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CWA
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST...STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND COMING TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING /WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING/. WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.50 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME.
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF THE
NON-SEVERE VARIETY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORM TOMORROW /60S AND 70S/.

THEREAFTER...THE UA TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WHILST UA RIDGING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY. THE UA RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE FA BY SUNDAY
COURTESY OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /PER THE GFS/ BUT
THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE /ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
NORTH/. IN EITHER CASE...DECLINING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY POINTS TO TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
PROVES TO BE TRUE /WETTER GFS VERSUS THE DRYER ECMWF/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  52  69  51  77 /  20  30  40  20  10
TULIA         76  53  70  52  77 /  10  10  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     75  53  68  52  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     74  56  68  54  76 /  20  30  60  20  10
LUBBOCK       75  56  68  54  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   72  57  69  54  77 /  30  40  60  20  10
BROWNFIELD    74  56  69  55  76 /  20  40  60  20  10
CHILDRESS     83  55  75  55  81 /  10  10  60  40  20
SPUR          78  56  71  56  79 /  10  10  70  30  20
ASPERMONT     81  56  76  57  81 /  10  10  70  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29/07
195
FXUS64 KLUB 210756
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
256 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA...PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THIS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR EL PASO THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PHASING
WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING NWD FROM THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE BEING EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS THAT COULD ADD A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. PREVIOUS FCST STILL
LOOKS VALID WITH 30 PCT SW TAPERING LOWER MOVING NORTH AND EAST
FROM THERE. RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO PICK UP A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS TAKES PLACE AND ADVANCES TO THE
EAST...AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT ALTHOUGH MAIN SHOW WILL BE
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS A LITTLE LARGER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY SO FOG LOOKING LESS LIKELY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AS
FOR TEMPS...WILL BE HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND
LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE UA LOW PROGRESSING NEWRD FROM NW OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS SW NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...IS ANTICIPATED TO MERGE WITH AN TROUGH
THAT WILL EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SAID DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A
CONTINUAL TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CWA
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST...STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND COMING TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING /WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING/. WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.50 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME.
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF THE
NON-SEVERE VARIETY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORM TOMORROW /60S AND 70S/.

THEREAFTER...THE UA TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WHILST UA RIDGING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY. THE UA RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE FA BY SUNDAY
COURTESY OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /PER THE GFS/ BUT
THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE /ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
NORTH/. IN EITHER CASE...DECLINING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY POINTS TO TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
PROVES TO BE TRUE /WETTER GFS VERSUS THE DRYER ECMWF/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  52  69  51  77 /  20  30  40  20  10
TULIA         76  53  70  52  77 /  10  10  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     75  53  68  52  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     74  56  68  54  76 /  20  30  60  20  10
LUBBOCK       75  56  68  54  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   72  57  69  54  77 /  30  40  60  20  10
BROWNFIELD    74  56  69  55  76 /  20  40  60  20  10
CHILDRESS     83  55  75  55  81 /  10  10  60  40  20
SPUR          78  56  71  56  79 /  10  10  70  30  20
ASPERMONT     81  56  76  57  81 /  10  10  70  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29
681
FXUS64 KLUB 210448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
PROSPECTS OF CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LOOK BETTER AS WEAK LIFT
OCCURS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OPENING UP OVER SRN NM. KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR THOUGH PATCHY MVFR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE S WILL HELP MAINTAIN SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TUE
WITH ANY CIGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE S DURING THE AFTN AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99
888
FXUS64 KLUB 210106
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW TURNS MORE
SRLY IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT
KLBB THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN THAT SOME STRATUS WON/T MAKE A
RUN AT THE TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK. ALL MODELS INDICATE DOWNWARD
MOTION IN LOWEST LAYERS TO COUNTER MOISTURE ADVECTION SO LEFT
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST. DO EXPECT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AT KLBB.
SFC WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS REMAIN LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT THEN TURN
SRLY TUE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99
115
FXUS64 KLUB 202342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW TURNS MORE
SRLY IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT
KLBB THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN THAT SOME STRATUS WON/T MAKE A
RUN AT THE TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK. ALL MODELS INDICATE DOWNWARD
MOTION IN LOWEST LAYERS TO COUNTER MOISTURE ADVECTION SO LEFT
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST. DO EXPECT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AT KLBB.
SFC WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS REMAIN LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT THEN TURN
SRLY TUE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  20  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  20  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  20  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  30  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  20  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/55/24
170
FXUS64 KLUB 202110
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

.LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  20  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  20  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  20  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  30  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  20  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/55
535
FXUS64 KLUB 201726 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS AND SHOULD REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KLBB TERMINAL BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN KLBB
TAF AT THIS TIME. SECOND ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AT KLBB
TUESDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
TERMINAL...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS
POSSIBILITY IS ALSO TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KLBB WHILE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT
KCDS...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 9 MILES AND WITH A FEW
SITES EAST OF THE SAID TERMINAL NEARING VFR FOG...IT IS A
POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...MVFR CLOUD DECKS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE
INSERTED A FEW MENTION FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL EXPECT THE FOG AND
ANY LOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING
AT KLBB. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OCCURRENCE HAS NOT HAPPENED THIS MORNING THUS
FAR. BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR LATER
TAF CYCLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
902
FXUS64 KLUB 201120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KLBB WHILE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT
KCDS...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 9 MILES AND WITH A FEW
SITES EAST OF THE SAID TERMINAL NEARING VFR FOG...IT IS A
POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...MVFR CLOUD DECKS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE
INSERTED A FEW MENTION FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL EXPECT THE FOG AND
ANY LOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING
AT KLBB. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OCCURRENCE HAS NOT HAPPENED THIS MORNING THUS
FAR. BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR LATER
TAF CYCLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
158
FXUS64 KLUB 200754
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
712
FXUS64 KLUB 200447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PROSPECTS FOR FOG AT KLBB THIS MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. AT
THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACTS BUT GIVEN
THE SETUP...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE VISIBILITY REDUCE TO IFR LEVELS
/70 PCT CONFIDENCE/ AT LEAST UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. TSTM CHANCES
EXIST AT BOTH TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  10  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  20  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  20  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  20  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  10  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
654
FXUS64 KLUB 192317
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. GUIDANCE IS QUITE
VARIED ON PROSPECTS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY AT KLBB MAINLY AFTER 10Z BUT NON-ZERO
AT KCDS AS WELL. HAVE TRENDED CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW AND WILL
MONITOR AVAILABLE DATA. TSTM ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL
MONDAY AFTN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  20  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  30  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  30  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  30  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  20  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
574
FXUS64 KLUB 192032
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  20  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  30  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  30  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  30  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  20  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
184
FXUS64 KLUB 191713
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KLBB THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BREAK AT KCDS THEN LIFTING AT BOTH TAF
SITES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KLBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER LOW CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR LOWERED VISBYS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE
MOMENT TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECKS
LATER THIS MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES. WITH LOW CLOUDS
NEARBY...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE HAS INCREASED AND THUS WILL
HOLD ON TO A MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTN BEFORE DETERIORATING TO MVFR CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE SFC WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN...WAS
TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS NWRN OKLAHOMA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE GENERALLY OF AN UPSLOPE REGIME
THUS PROMOTING ENDURING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S/. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS /PERHAPS ONLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES IF THAT/ NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
GRADUALLY NARROWS.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA TROUGH DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE NRN
BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF WHILST
NEARING NWRN OLD MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION /DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTN/ COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT S-SE
SFC WINDS TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OF A 100-300 J/KG APPEARS INSIGNIFICANT...
LIKE YESTERDAY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MORE
SO DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT LATE THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING ONLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
/70S/. TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK NEAREST TO THE UA DISTURBANCE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS MAKING FOR A MILD
NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FCST WHICH IS A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MIDWEEK. BEFORE
THEN WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TO FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT TO SEE SOME WEAKLY-FORCED SHOWERS TRY TO
SPREAD NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...PHASING
WITH THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS THEN CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO BE FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES...IN PARTICULAR ON THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH AS THE MODELS
END CLOSING A LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...EVEN WITH THAT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING...PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTN. AFTERWARDS...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  73  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         52  76  51  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     54  75  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     55  73  54  73  53 /  20  30  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       55  74  54  74  54 /  10  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   55  71  57  71  54 /  20  30  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    56  73  55  73  54 /  20  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     57  81  57  80  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          58  78  57  77  55 /  10  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  57  79  56 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
153
FXUS64 KLUB 191120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECKS
LATER THIS MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES. WITH LOW CLOUDS
NEARBY...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE HAS INCREASED AND THUS WILL
HOLD ON TO A MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTN BEFORE DETERIORATING TO MVFR CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE SFC WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN...WAS
TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS NWRN OKLAHOMA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE GENERALLY OF AN UPSLOPE REGIME
THUS PROMOTING ENDURING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S/. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS /PERHAPS ONLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES IF THAT/ NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
GRADUALLY NARROWS.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA TROUGH DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE NRN
BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF WHILST
NEARING NWRN OLD MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION /DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTN/ COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT S-SE
SFC WINDS TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OF A 100-300 J/KG APPEARS INSIGNIFICANT...
LIKE YESTERDAY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MORE
SO DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT LATE THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING ONLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
/70S/. TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK NEAREST TO THE UA DISTURBANCE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS MAKING FOR A MILD
NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FCST WHICH IS A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MIDWEEK. BEFORE
THEN WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TO FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT TO SEE SOME WEAKLY-FORCED SHOWERS TRY TO
SPREAD NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...PHASING
WITH THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS THEN CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO BE FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES...IN PARTICULAR ON THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH AS THE MODELS
END CLOSING A LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...EVEN WITH THAT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING...PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTN. AFTERWARDS...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  51  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         72  52  76  51  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  54  75  52  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     71  55  73  54  73 /  20  20  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  55  74  54  74 /  20  10  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   70  55  71  57  71 /  20  20  30  20  30
BROWNFIELD    72  56  73  55  73 /  20  20  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     76  57  81  57  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          74  58  78  57  77 /  20  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     77  60  79  57  79 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
194
FXUS64 KLUB 190735
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
235 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN...WAS
TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS NWRN OKLAHOMA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE GENERALLY OF AN UPSLOPE REGIME
THUS PROMOTING ENDURING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S/. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS /PERHAPS ONLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES IF THAT/ NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
GRADUALLY NARROWS.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA TROUGH DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE NRN
BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF WHILST
NEARING NWRN OLD MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION /DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTN/ COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT S-SE
SFC WINDS TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OF A 100-300 J/KG APPEARS INSIGNIFICANT...
LIKE YESTERDAY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MORE
SO DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT LATE THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING ONLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
/70S/. TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK NEAREST TO THE UA DISTURBANCE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS MAKING FOR A MILD
NIGHT /50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FCST WHICH IS A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MIDWEEK. BEFORE
THEN WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TO FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT TO SEE SOME WEAKLY-FORCED SHOWERS TRY TO
SPREAD NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...PHASING
WITH THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS THEN CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO BE FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES...IN PARTICULAR ON THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH AS THE MODELS
END CLOSING A LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...EVEN WITH THAT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING...PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTN. AFTERWARDS...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  51  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         72  52  76  51  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  54  75  52  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     71  55  73  54  73 /  20  20  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  55  74  54  74 /  20  10  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   70  55  71  57  71 /  20  20  30  20  30
BROWNFIELD    72  56  73  55  73 /  20  20  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     76  57  81  57  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          74  58  78  57  77 /  20  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     77  60  79  57  79 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
207
FXUS64 KLUB 190445
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS CYCLE WILL BE PROSPECTS FOR IFR CEILINGS AT
KLBB. THUS FAR...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE GOOD THAT KLBB WILL DIP TO
MVFR TOWARD SUNRISE THOUGH GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...PERHAPS A
30-40 PCT CHANCE OF IFR EXISTS. ABOUT A 10 PCT CHANCE EXISTS FOR
LIFR IN CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.  KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD ONLY
DIP TO HIGH-END MVFR GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO LIFT ON SUNDAY BUT EVENTUALLY CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS STILL
LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY MINORING
OUT WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONTAINED WITHIN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS LOWER
IN THETA-E RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. ELEVATED PARCELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL HOURS IT STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW STRATUS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL BE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
CUT OFF AND GREATLY SLOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT DIVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND LEAD TO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
WEST TEXAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL HAVE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW DISSIPATES AND IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE MODELS PAN OUT WHERE
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING SO LEFT POP CHANCES ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DEVELOP
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE LOW...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH MEANS A DRY
FORECAST AND WILL ALSO SEE SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  69  50  73  48 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         48  71  50  76  51 /  10  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     49  71  53  75  52 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  53  74  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  72  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  71  54  74  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    51  73  55  75  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     51  77  55  81  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          52  75  58  78  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     54  77  58  80  57 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
036
FXUS64 KLUB 182331
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014


.AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EARLY EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AT KLBB. CEILING
SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
BY SUNRISE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY SUNDAY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS STILL
LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY MINORING
OUT WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONTAINED WITHIN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS LOWER
IN THETA-E RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. ELEVATED PARCELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL HOURS IT STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW STRATUS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL BE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
CUT OFF AND GREATLY SLOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT DIVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND LEAD TO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
WEST TEXAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL HAVE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW DISSIPATES AND IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE MODELS PAN OUT WHERE
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING SO LEFT POP CHANCES ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DEVELOP
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE LOW...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH MEANS A DRY
FORECAST AND WILL ALSO SEE SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  69  50  73  48 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         48  71  50  76  51 /  10  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     49  71  53  75  52 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  53  74  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  72  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  71  54  74  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    51  73  55  75  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     51  77  55  81  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          52  75  58  78  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     54  77  58  80  57 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
483
FXUS64 KLUB 182029
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS STILL
LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY MINORING
OUT WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONTAINED WITHIN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS LOWER
IN THETA-E RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. ELEVATED PARCELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL HOURS IT STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW STRATUS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL BE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
CUT OFF AND GREATLY SLOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT DIVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND LEAD TO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
WEST TEXAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL HAVE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW DISSIPATES AND IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE MODELS PAN OUT WHERE
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING SO LEFT POP CHANCES ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DEVELOP
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE LOW...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH MEANS A DRY
FORECAST AND WILL ALSO SEE SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  69  50  73  48 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         48  71  50  76  51 /  10  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     49  71  53  75  52 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  53  74  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  72  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  71  54  74  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    51  73  55  75  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     51  77  55  81  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          52  75  58  78  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     54  77  58  80  57 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
418
FXUS64 KLUB 181707
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1207 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE KLBB TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KCDS. LOW
CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRAWS INCREASED
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THESE CIGS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN MVFR CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM A DECAYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST
ON THE CAPROCK. ALTHOUGH...AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  70  50  73  49 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         47  72  52  76  52 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     48  72  55  75  53 /  10  10  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     49  72  54  74  52 /  10  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       50  72  55  75  54 /  10  10  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   50  72  54  74  53 /  10  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    50  73  55  75  53 /  10  10  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     50  76  55  81  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          51  75  56  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     53  77  59  80  58 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/99
805
FXUS64 KLUB 181607
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM A DECAYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST
ON THE CAPROCK. ALTHOUGH...AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  50  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  40  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  20  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
451
FXUS64 KLUB 181203
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
703 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST
NORTHEAST FROM EAST NEW MEXICO TO ACROSS THE WEST SOUTH PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE WX PACKAGE TO REFLECT THE
ANTICIPATED TRAJECTORY OF THE ACTIVITY...AS WELL THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  50  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  40  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
443
FXUS64 KLUB 181124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  30  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  20  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
650
FXUS64 KLUB 180800
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  30  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  20  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
296
FXUS64 KLUB 180450
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS
AND EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WILL SEE SHRA
WEST OF KLBB SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MENTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALREADY LOST
ITS CLOSED LOW STATUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AROUND -55C BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRASTIC WHEN IT
ARRIVES FOR WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOLING
AT MID LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS BUT NOWHERE TO THE
DEGREE IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. WEAK LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AT LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL NEARLY BE NON-
EXISTENT FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST HOPE WITH ALMOST 100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH
MINIMAL CIN.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVE WILL TRY TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE REGION BUT WILL OPEN UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS INITIAL
WAVE RAPIDLY LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT STRONGER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STARTS TO DIG TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. GFS IS STILL THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT
CARRIES THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO AWIPS YET SO GOING FROM THE 00Z RUN AND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  67  45  72 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  68  46  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  68  47  72 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  68  48  72 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  69  49  72 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  71  49  72 /   0  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  70  49  73 /   0  10  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  72  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  73  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  74  51  77 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
547
FXUS64 KLUB 171114
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST BY THE AFTN...WHILE FEW-SCT
VFR DECKS PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA LOW NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SENT DOWN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS ONLY RESULTED IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. PER 07Z METARS...THE FRONT WAS
IMPINGING ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ITS
SWRD TREK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FLATTENED UA RIDGE WILL PROGRESS
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NRLY WINDS VEERING TO THE ENE. THIS SLIGHT
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY AID IN GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS FROM 0.50 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES BY TONIGHT/.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH
IS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY/S WELL ABOVE NORM TEMPS...COURTESY
OF THE COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTED IN BY THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH 40S EXPECTED.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN UA DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON SRN
CALI/NRN BAJA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT
WHILE PROPAGATING ENE ACROSS THE DESERT SW TO ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PWATS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOMORROW. READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
TO THE FCST AREA IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ALREADY HEADING EWD. DESPITE BEING SHEARED AS IT MOVES
EWD...EXPECT ENOUGH STRENGTH IN THIS TROUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA THIS WEEKEND. TIMING
APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP WITH BEST CHANCES NOW COMING SATURDAY AFTN
RATHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING
SEWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SW MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ALSO WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...LIKELY
CONFINING ANY PRECIP TO THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE NOTED. TEND TO FAVOR
THE EURO IN THESE SITUATIONS WHICH IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO
BETWEEN THAT AND THE GFS. WPC FAVORING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...AND
THEY HAVE RAMPED UP POPS AS A RESULT. NOT SURE THAT THE PATTERN
FAVORS POPS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE INDICATING ATTM...BUT CERTAINLY
LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY PERIOD ABOUT 10 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD.

YESTERDAY SHOULD BE THE END OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...ALTHOUGH NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED EITHER.
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...
IF NOT PRECIP...SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  66  45  73 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  67  46  75 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  67  47  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  67  48  74 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  68  49  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  70  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  69  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  71  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  72  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  73  51  78 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29

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