Area Forecast Discussion
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939
FXUS64 KLUB 172106
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
406 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PRODUCED A VERY
COOL DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 3 PM TEMPS ONLY IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. IN FACT THE TEMP SO FAR AT LUBBOCK HAS ONLY
REACHED 72 DEGREES AND WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH THE PREVIOUS
COOLEST HIGH TEMP FOR JULY 17TH OF 77 DEGREES. SATELLITE DOES SHOW
A LITTLE BIT OF CLEARING OCCURRING ON THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA...BUT WE THINK WE/LL ONLY SEE SOME SOME PARTIAL SUN LATE IN
THE DAY BEFORE LOW STRATUS FILLS BACK IN THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND WE CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...AREAS OF FOG OR EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LOW/S TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL
APPROACH THE RECORD VALUES AT BOTH LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH MORE SUN DURING
THE DAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S...BUT WILL STILL
BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE...SOME AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM...BUT CONDITIONS DON`T LOOK VERY
FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS ERN NM
TOWARD THE STATE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.  THERE REMAINS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY HOW THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY...AND THIS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
BOTH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.  AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE WILL REACH ITS WIDEST EAST TO WEST EXTENT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND AS A RESULT...IT THESE TWO DAYS WILL LIKELY
BE PARTICULARLY WARM WITH DAYTIME MAXIMUMS REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  ON BOTH OF THESE DAYS AND POSSIBLY
TUESDAY AS WELL...STRONG HEATING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE CENTER COMBINED WITH LINGERING MODEST MOISTURE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW GARDEN VARIETY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPLICIT MENTION IN
THE FORECAST PRODUCTS AS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 20 PERCENT
EVEN IF THE MOST OPTIMISTIC PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
HOWEVER...JUST PRIOR TO THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF A SUBTLE UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE NW LATE SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.
THUS...OPTED TO MAINTAIN SCHC MENTION OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY MID WEEK...GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO WOBBLE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND ITS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY.  THE ECMWF HAS ALSO PERSISTENTLY DEPICTED A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SOMETIME IN THE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING
ADDITIONAL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD JUST YET UNTIL SOLUTIONS
EXHIBIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  82  63  92  66 /  10  10  10  10  20
TULIA         58  79  64  89  68 /  10   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     58  79  65  89  70 /  10   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     60  84  67  94  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       61  84  68  93  73 /  10   0  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   63  85  68  96  69 /  10  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  83  67  95  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     60  82  67  89  73 /  10  10   0  10  20
SPUR          60  82  68  93  72 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  85  70  96  75 /  20  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/16

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