Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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431
FXUS64 KLUB 230250 RRC
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
850 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
MOISTURE HAS PROGRESSED FURTHER WEST THAN ANTICIPATED WITH ABOUT
HALF THE CITY NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT FOG.
INTERESTINGLY....THE DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIRPORT AND
REESE IS ALMOST 25 DEGREES. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG EAST
OF THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE. CLEARING SHOULD START TO OCCUR IN
LUBBOCK BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AVIATION...
MOIST ADVECTION HAS PUSHED TO JUST WEST OF KLBB WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR LESS THAN 10 NM WEST OF THE TERMINAL. THIS HAS TRIGGERED
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THROUGH 06Z. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD START MOVING EASTWARD BEFORE 06Z
AND BRING CLEARING SKIES. KCDS HAS LIKEWISE CONTINUED TO DEGRADE
WITH VISIBILITY AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR OR MVFR THROUGH AROUND
08Z. THEREAFTER...VFR IS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS. THAT
SAID...WINDS WILL PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY
MID-SUNDAY MORNING...DOWNRIGHT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. GA
PILOTS PLANNING TO FLY ON SUNDAY MIGHT WANT TO BRING AN EXTRA
STASH OF LINED BAGS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
POSITION OF DRYLINE AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL
HOLD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AS SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE DOWN TO AROUND 2 DEG F ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER
08Z...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING. AS THIS IS THE FIRST
DECENT WIND EVENT AFTER A RATHER MOIST FALL...AM HESITANT TO
INTRODUCE MENTION OF BLOWING DUST ON SUNDAY BUT ALAS...WE WILL SEE
HOW THINGS GO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE SETTLING DOWN ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE
DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REPLACE THE MOIST CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A STRONG
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE
WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW
SIDE OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS AT 500MB BETWEEN 60 AND 70KT. WE
WILL NOT LIKELY SEE MIXING TO 700MB BUT DEEP MIXING NONETHELESS
WILL BE ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN IMPRESSIVE 60KT AT
700MB. ADDING A LITTLE COMPLICATION TO THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE
THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY ONLY BE A LIMITED AREA
THAT THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THIS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY AS
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP A COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME COOL AIR WITH THIS FRONT BUT IT ONLY DROP
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE DRY AS LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE BUT THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT
ARRIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS COULD MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER
DUE TO A LACK OF INSOLATION WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND SURFACE WIND SWINGS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROF SETS UP SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A POSSIBLE FRONT
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN A
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF SAGS A BACKDOOR FRONT IN TO THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE WASHING IT OUT.
WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  52  25  49  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         39  53  28  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     42  55  29  52  25 /  10  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     42  58  29  52  25 /   0   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  59  30  53  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  61  29  53  26 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  60  30  54  26 /  10   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     43  62  35  57  33 /  10  10  10   0   0
SPUR          45  63  34  56  33 /  10   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     46  66  34  58  33 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99

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