Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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229
FXUS64 KLUB 252321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY NW WINDS /ESPECIALLY AT KCDS/ WILL DECLINE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS WILL BACK A BIT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS WILL COMMENCE TO COME UP JUST A
BIT TO 10-11 KTS...WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS NOTED AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS BREACHING INTO THE 60S ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ALOFT TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BRINGS A TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE
OF A STOUT UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S ON MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND MID 30S
TO LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE MONDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD...BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE FINAL WEEK
OF JANUARY. FULL INSOLATION AND H85 THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN 10-20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WITH UPPER 60 TO LOW 70 DEGREE READINGS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
..INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARM AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SKIRTS WEST
TEXAS TO THE NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTING IN BREEZY...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S AS WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST...DOWNSTREAM OF A UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO AND CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPS IN SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE A
WHOLE LOT...PERHAPS DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A STEADY STREAM OF MID-LVL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND KEEP US IN A COOL...CLOUDY AND MOIST PATTERN. THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY END UP TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND
SATURDAY...IT COULD DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A
DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY SUNDAY. OF IT COULD ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS NRN MX AND TX...WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT COULD DIP
BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. THUS
IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW POTENTIAL COULD ENTER THE MIX EARLY SAT AND
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT IF THE PRECIP LINGERS...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  63  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         32  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     32  67  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   33  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     36  73  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          38  70  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     38  72  40  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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