Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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136
FXUS64 KLUB 230444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A REPRIEVE FROM LOW STRATUS AND VISBYS IS UNDERWAY AT KLBB AND
KCDS BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RETURN
WITH CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. LOWERED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
LOW STRATUS WAS ALREADY ENCOMPASSING THE REGION ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN QUICKLY WITH
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING CHANNELED VORTICITY CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS SWINGING
THROUGH JUST BEHIND. COMBINED LIFT AND PARTIAL THINNING OF CLOUDS
THUS A TOUCH OF WARMING APPEAR TO BE LEADING TO SOMEWHAT RENEWED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EASTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ANYWAY...THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER THROUGH EVENING FAVORING EASTERN AREAS.
AFTERWARDS WITH ANY CLEARING ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SCOURING FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS WAVE. DEEPER DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH DOMINANT MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY. LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO TURN SUNNY AND WARMER WITH LITTLE
CONTENTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER WEST TEXAS LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY BREEZES AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROMOTE A NICE FALL
WARM UP...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THESE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN WINDS AS WESTERN TROUGHINESS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY. ANOTHER WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WILL KICK OFF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS FALL MORE NOTABLY WITH THE
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST
AND SHARPEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SLOWER...DEEPER SOLUTION COMES
TO FRUITION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO AT LEAST THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER WITH THIS EARLY WEEK WAVE AND WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING
AN EXPLICIT PRECIPITATION MENTION PENDING INCREASED MODEL-TO-
MODEL CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR
LATE OCTOBER. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS ITERATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  78  49  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  79  51  85  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  52  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  78  54  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  78  54  83  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  83  55  89  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          55  80  57  86  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  81  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01

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