294
FXUS64 KLUB 110900
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER HOT AND QUIET DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOPS AGREE WITH 00Z UPA
ANALYSIS IN SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE PRETTY MUCH PARKED ON
TOP OF OR ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY AND THICKNESS INCREASE JUST A TAD SO WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. CLOUD
COVER ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES SO A
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
JORDAN
&&
.LONG TERM...
CENTER OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO NUDGE EAST OF
THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESSIVE RIDGING OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS PROCESS WILL MAKE WEST TX
MORE VULNERABLE TO A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ABOUT 300
MILES SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND REGION. AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTN...WPC
AND MODEL CONSENSUS FAVOR THIS LOW LIFTING INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN
BEFORE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING HOW SOON IT DEPARTS. LIFT
ALONE IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT THIS IS MORE THAN MADE
UP FOR BY RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA 1.5 INCHES OVER A
LARGE AREA. DIURNAL HEATING ALONE IN SUCH MOIST ENVIRONMENTS VOID
OF SIGNIFICANT CAPPING CAN EASILY RENDER SCATTERED TSTRMS...AND
ANEMIC DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY OPEN THE WINDOW FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL IN PLACES. 00Z GFS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO EAGER TO LIFT
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT OF THE REGION IN THIS WEAK FLOW...SO HAVE
EXPANDED POP MENTION IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF AND
CMC SOLUTIONS WHICH METEOROLOGICALLY MAKE BETTER SENSE GIVEN THE
WEAK FLOW SO CLOSE TO THE UPPER HIGH. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP
OVER A LARGE AREA FAVORS SATURDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
NOW BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRI AFTN IN OUR SWRN COUNTIES ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING MOISTURE PLUME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS STRONG THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL
RETREAT INTO NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE DETAILS
SURROUNDING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ATOP OUR
CWA BY THIS TIME ARE MORE MUDDLED. NOT ABOUT TO ENTERTAIN THE
ECMWF`S STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT STALLING OVER
WEST TX BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A
FLATTER TROUGH AND DRIER PATTERN LOCALLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 96 65 97 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 98 67 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 97 68 96 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 95 67 97 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 97 69 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 96 66 97 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 95 69 97 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 100 72 101 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 98 72 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 100 74 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/93
