Area Forecast Discussion
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059
FXUS64 KLUB 151108
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
608 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXACT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS TIMING.
PRECIP MENTION HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THIS TAF CYCLE DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY BUT WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION OVER NM TAPERING OFF WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT
HELPED TRIGGER THIS CONVECTION IS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD AROUND A
593 HIGH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRESENT LEE TROF WILL HELP
DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK MCS ALONG A SURFACE THETA E
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROF AND SLOWLY PROGRESS IT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOULD PREVENT A FAST
MOVING MCS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE LIKELIHOOD TO
PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL AS PWATS WILL BE HIGH...AROUND 1.5
INCHES.

WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...MODELS HINT AT
A SMALL COMPLEX LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS...POSSIBLY A PRODUCT OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS
WHICH IS BEING SUSTAINED WITH HELP FROM THE OVERHEAD SHORTWAVE. I
HAVE KEPT POPS IN FOR TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
EXISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. I HAVE ALSO KEPT HIGHS FOR TODAY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE
TO CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. LOWS FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD
BE RATHER PLEASANT AFTER BEING COOLED BY CONVECTION. LOWS OFF THE
CAPROCK WILL BE MILD...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

LONG TERM...
WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ACROSS THE CONUS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH
DURING THE NEXT...ALL IS NOT ABSOLUTE EVEN THOUGH IT IS AUGUST.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE INTO ARIZONA AND REMAIN
OUT THERE INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH
EDGES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  A
RESPECTABLE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY THOUGH ITS
EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE
CONVECTIVE MORPHOLOGY OF THE DAY BEFORE WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SEEDING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  HAVE THEREFORE GENERALLY
BLANKETED POPS SAT AND SUN GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH HAVE MADE
AN ATTEMPT TO DEMONSTRATE SOME SORT OF GRADIENT GIVEN THE MOST
LIKELY AREA OF PRECIPITATION EVIDENT WITH THIS MORNING/S DATA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF MAY ALLOW WEAKLY FORCED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK BUT GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN
NWP...WILL KEEP WX GRIDS SILENT FOR THE TIME BEING AWAITING FURTHER
CLARITY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK THIS WEEKEND BEFORE NOTCHING DOWN
A FEW DEGREES NEXT WEEK BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  63  93  64  93 /  30  30  20  20  20
TULIA         93  64  95  66  94 /  20  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     93  65  94  66  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     93  65  96  66  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       94  68  96  69  94 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  66  95  66  95 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    95  66  97  67  94 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     99  71 101  71  99 /  10  20  20  20  20
SPUR          97  69  99  68  97 /  10  20  20  20  20
ASPERMONT    100  73 101  72  99 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/26/51

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