554
FXUS64 KLUB 191729
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. VFR WILL
PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
UPDATE...
MOISTURE THAT BRIEFLY INVADED THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MIXED/ADVECTED EASTWARD LEAVING
DRY...WARM AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE BREEZES IN ITS WAKE. HUMIDITY
LEVELS HAVE ALREADY PLUNGED TO 15 PERCENT OR LOWER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15-25+ MPH WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 02Z. ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH SUNSET. ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS...THOUGH DID OPT TO EXPAND THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FA NOT ENCOMPASSED BY THE RED FLAG
WARNING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS.
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH
NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE KEEPING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SEEN AREAWIDE
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RED FLAG MINUTES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MAKING A SLOW PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT...VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS IN TERMS OF AIRMASS
MODIFICATION OR WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN UPON ITS
APPROACH. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST QUICKLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS BACK NORTH.
LONG TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF US ACROSS
NRN NE AND SRN SD BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
AROUND THE FEATURE BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW WILL ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD YIELDING A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUT WEST ON MONDAY BUT INTENSITY OF
CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE WANING OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS
WEEKEND WITH NO KNOWN STARTS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN INTO OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF
NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY
THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO TO ALASKA AND
SERVE TO BLOCK THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM LEAVING WEST TEXAS
IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORTUNATELY...THIS RIDGE WILL
BE OF THE DIRTY PERSUASION PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS LATE THIS WEEK
WITH RAINFALL CHANCES.
DRYLINE WILL LARGELY STAY OUT EAST OR BEYOND THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
THOUGH WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT GIVING A BIT OF
RELIEF OF THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A DRY FROPA BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HONEST MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH DAY 10. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS A SLUG OF BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE CONVERGE OVER
THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF
A QUITAQUE TO LAKEVIEW LINE...WHILE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...PRODUCING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE THE QUESTION MARK AS
HIGHEST WIND MAXIMUM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A CHILDRESS TO MATADOR LINE
AS MARGINAL WINDS ALOFT HAVE A LONGER DISTANCE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN RFD FOR COCHRAN THROUGH LUBBOCK COUNTIES
AS WIND MAXIMUM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONCERNS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH SUB 10 PCT RH VALUES. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 83 51 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 56 88 55 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 57 90 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 57 90 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 58 92 57 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 61 90 56 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 60 92 55 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 60 95 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 63 96 61 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 65 100 66 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.
&&
$$
23/07/23
