Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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577
FXUS64 KLUB 190520
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS PERSISTED AT KCDS...AND IFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT KCDS
DECKS DETERIORATING TO IFR CRITERIA AS WELL OVERNIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW MID-LATE
MORNING WHERE IT WILL SCATTER OUT THEREAFTER AT KPVW AND
KLBB...BUT RAISE BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCDS. VISIBILITY HAS
INTERMITTENTLY FALLEN AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW...THUS VFR CONDITIONS
ENSUED. VISIBILITY BECOMING RESTRICTED TO AROUND 6 MILES OR SO
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW LOW IT WILL
GO GIVEN THE FOLLOWING WEATHER INTEREST. ATTENTION TURNS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO WHICH HAS
PROMOTED -SHRA WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW TONIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW
THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD SHIFT EAST AND AFFECT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW
OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY KCDS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER /THUS
VISIBILITY MAY BECOME REDUCED FOR ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD/. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A TEMPO FOR -SHRA AT KLBB AND KPVW AT
THIS TIME...AND WILL PREFER TO SEE HOW RADAR TRENDS GO BEFORE
ADDING A PRECIP MENTION TO KCDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
STRATUS POISED TO MOVE BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING AS SFC WINDS VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN RESPONSE
TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS SERN ARIZONA AND SWRN NEW MEXICO. MODELS
REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT...ESPECIALLY WRF-NAM AND HI-RES
MODELS...IN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ZONES ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THEN TRACKING EWD DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTN. IN GENERAL EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SRN ZONES SWD
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PRECIP THERE. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THAT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS. WILL NUDGE POPS UP SOME INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT THAN MOS.

LONG TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM. WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY BRING MORE FOG TO THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO A SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST PUSHING
WARMER AND DRYER AIR IN TO THE FA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROF.
THE LEE TROF WILL BUILD AND GATHER COLD AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST SENDING THE COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT STEPS UP ON DECK. UNFORTUNATELY THE GRINCH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING
THIS ONE ON THE TOP OF MOUNT CRUMPIT UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER...BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THAT WILL HAVE US
SINGING MELE KALIKIMAKA INSTEAD OF WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF THAT WILL
BRING THIS FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK FROM A CLOSED 534 DM LOW TO AN OPEN
WAVE. DESPITE THAT TREND...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE COLD
AS THE TROF WILL FUNNEL COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  50  23  54  25 /  30  10  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  28  54  31 /  30  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  48  30  55  32 /  30  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     35  52  29  56  32 /  40  30  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  50  31  56  34 /  30  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   36  54  30  56  34 /  40  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  52  31  55  34 /  40  30  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     40  46  33  54  37 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          36  48  32  55  37 /  30  40  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     40  49  35  58  40 /  20  30  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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