Area Forecast Discussion
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117
FXUS64 KLUB 231726
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTD VFR WITH SSW WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS. VERY SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA
ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVNG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE
AREA...BUT CHANCES THESE IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL ARE TOO SLIM FOR
A TAF MENTION.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TRAILING VORTICITY FROM YESTERDAYS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME EFFECT FROM THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY SEEN EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. HOWEVER...MUCH LESS
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO A VARIETY OF REASONS. THE SURFACE
TROUGH OBSERVED YESTERDAY WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED TODAY LEADING TO
LESS SURFACE CONVERGENCE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
OUT AS DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS EVIDENCED BY LOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WITHIN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL.
MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE SPOTTY AT BEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY.

LONG TERM...
A THINNING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME MAY BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY BEFORE
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE EXTENDS FURTHER WEST AND SHUNTS THE MOIST
FLOW BACK TO THE WEST. RIDGE DOMINATION AND WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD
RULE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A NEW MONSOONAL PLUME BILLOWING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND ROCKIES COULD PRESS
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHWESTERN BORDER LATE IN THE DAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE GRADUALLY EDGING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN TIER BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BULK OF HEIGHT FALLS
AND DYNAMIC LIFT SEEM DESTINED FOR THESE AREAS. BUT THE MOISTURE
PLUME SHOULD DRAG BACK OVER OUR AREA BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. TRENDS TOWARDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TROUGH PROGRESSION AS
WELL AS SLOWER SURFACE FRONT NOTED THIS RUN...BUT MIGHT STILL GIVE
A WINDOW FOR THUNDER CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY AS
IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW. SLOWER SOLUTIONS WOULD DELAY THESE CHANCES
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY BUT WE WILL NOT BROAD-BRUSH THAT FAR YET. THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL BE QUITE COOL...SO SHOULD
FRONT MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WE COULD SEE NOTABLE COOLING AS
WELL AND HAVE FAVORED MORE DETERMINISTIC OUTCOMES CENTERED ON
THURSDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW LIKELY TO LEAD TO A NEW WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK LEADING TO RENEWED WARMING AND DRYING OUR
AREA AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  64  92  65  93 /  20  10  20  20  10
TULIA         94  67  94  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     94  66  92  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       95  69  96  69  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  67  94  66  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    95  68  94  66  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  73  99  72 100 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71  97  69  98 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  72  99 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93

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