Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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989
FXUS64 KLUB 020456
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1156 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS KLBB
AND KPVW EARLIER TONIGHT...WHICH RESULTED IN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT KLBB...BUT REMAINED OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AT KPVW. KLBB WIND SPEEDS HAVE SINCE DROPPED BACK
BELOW 12 KTS WITH A WIND STILL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...BUT IT WILL
EVENTUALLY VEER BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT KPVW...SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSISTED...THOUGH IT IS ALSO DECLINING
THERE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AT KLBB AND KPVW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT KCDS
OVERNIGHT THUS RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST.
BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 22-24 KT RANGE AT KLBB AND KPVW...AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON...INCREASE TO AOA 17 KTS MORE SO AT KCDS. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR BLDU...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB AND
KPVW. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO 14-17 KTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WARM AND BREEZY DAY IN STORE THURSDAY WITH AN IMPORTANT CAVEAT. MID
LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THIS AFTN.
HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHTEST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AFTN
AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES. STRONGER MID
LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL
MIX DOWN LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE
NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LINGERING
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO DISSIPATE...
THE WRF-NAM GOING AS FAR AS KEEPING IT THERE THROUGH THE DAY. SO
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NOT A GIVEN THERE WHILE FURTHER TO THE SW
FROM LUBBOCK TO POINTS SOUTH AND WEST...WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN
RAMPING UP BY LATE MORNING. GIVEN EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF THE MID
LEVEL GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT MIXING 20 TO 30 MPH MOST LIKELY WIND
SPEED RANGE ON THE CAPROCK DURING THE AFTN. BIGGER QUESTIONS OFF THE
CAP IN PROXIMITY /AT LEAST POTENTIALLY/ TO THE SFC TROUGH. GIVEN
EXPECTATION OF VERY WARM TEMPS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WINDS
WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. REMAIN
QUITE CONFIDENT IN A LOW END EVENT ON THE CAP TOMORROW BUT QUESTIONS
CREEP IN OFF THE CAP...PARTICULARLY FAR SERN PANHANDLE. DESPITE
QUESTIONS UNCERTAINTY NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FROM THOSE AREAS WHILE CONFIDENCE CERTAINLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN ELSEWHERE.

EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOK TO BE QUIET. HIGH BASED CUMULUS
HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE WRN ZONES IN VERY DRY AIR. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WOULD EXPECT SFC BASED CONVECTION TO BE VERY
UNLIKELY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A BIT OF PRECIP GET TO THE
GROUND FROM THE HIGH-BASED CUMULUS BUT CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTED AREAL
COVERAGE BOTH LOW...AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE RIDES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL BRING A COOLDOWN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 60S. COULD SEE SOME LOW STRATUS FOR
A PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL
GIVEN THE SHALLOW LAYER OF NEAR SATURATION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE ON TAP WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S SOUTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING. BROAD/FLAT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD
THEN LEAD TO A DRY SATURDAY AS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN NORTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A SLIM CHANCE FOR STORMS SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AS PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
UPPER DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME SUNDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A BETTER DEFINED LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A NARROW WINDOW SHOULD RESIDE FOR ISOLATED STORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE BEFORE SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT
RANGE VEERS WINDS SOUTHWEST AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY WARM ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 COURTESY OF DRY DOWNSLOPE BREEZES SETTING UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

IF NOT SUNDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO INCREASE BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A WESTERN CONUS
DISTURBANCE. DIFFERENCES THEN CONTINUE TO ARISE AS TO WHEN A FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM EARLY-MID WEEK. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS WESTERN CONUS ENERGY...EITHER BRANCHING OFF INTO
TWO SEPARATES SYSTEMS OR REMAINING TOGETHER AS ONE FEATURE. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MUDDIED
SIGNAL AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A WEAKER
AND FARTHER NORTHWARD PASSING SYSTEM POTENTIALLY JUST SPELLING A
DRY BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  81  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  84  43  59 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  85  45  61 /  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  86  47  64 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       52  88  48  64 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  85  51  67 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  86  51  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  90  52  67 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          55  89  53  65 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     62  93  57  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

29

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