Area Forecast Discussion
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917
FXUS64 KLUB 261721 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A
DECREASING TREND TO VERY LIGHT WINDS BY 00 UTC/7PM. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SW THEN WEST TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 230 AM...THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT THROUGH WEST TEXAS YESTERDAY
WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH DALLAS TO THE EAST AND SONORA TO THE
SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO RELAX ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 4 AM OR SO. ALSO...IR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND
OF LOW STRATUS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TODAY...WE WILL SEE
THE NORTH WINDS COME BACK UP BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE AS WE GET SOME
INITIAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WIND WILL RELAX
MID-MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. MODESTLY
COOL NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY
COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH THEN WEST. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
30S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNEVENTFUL. LONG WAVE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEXMOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S BY SUNDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL SEND A COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION BRINGING A BRIEF
BREAK TO THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND WE WILL STILL SEE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL INSISTENT ON A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
SOLUTION DOES NOT AGREE WITH MUCH ELSE. THE ECMWF/GFSE/NAEFS SOLUTIONS
GENERALLY SUPPORT A WEAKER WAVE WITH A POSITIVE TILT. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         62  37  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  36  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     62  38  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       62  38  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   62  39  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    63  39  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     66  42  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          63  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     64  44  78  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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