Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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562
FXUS64 KLUB 220327 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1027 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ONE MORE MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST POP/WX GRIDS GIVEN THE RECENT
LATE EVENING RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HIGH-RES NWP GUIDANCE.
NAMELY...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WHILE EXPANDING/INCREASING
THEM OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IT DOES APPEAR THE LIGHT RAIN MAY
LINGER A FEW HOURS PAST 06Z OFF THE CAPROCK AND WE HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. AS THE RAIN COMES TO AN END AND THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT IT WILL EXPOSE THE
MOIST LOW LEVELS. GIVEN THIS AND THE LIGHT WINDS...IT STILL
APPEARS THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER
MUCH OF THE FA AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE PATCHY FOG MENTION IN
THE GRIDS FROM 06-15Z. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS OF CONSEQUENCE WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA...WHERE LOW-LEVELS ARE DRIER AND UPWARD FORCING IS WEAKER...WILL
ONLY SEE SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS. THE OVERALL FORECAST
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...THOUGH WE DID ADJUST POPS UPWARD
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 06Z...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS MOIST LOW-LEVELS...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG EARLY SUNDAY...AND
WE HAVE ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 06-15Z.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REMAINING GRIDS WERE MADE.
THE UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

AVIATION...
-SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT MORE LIKELY AT KLBB...THROUGH
ABOUT 03 UTC. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE
MVFR RANGE TONIGHT AND WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT VSBY
REDUCTIONS AS WELL AT KLBB AND KPVW. A PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE CENTERED AROUND 12 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS
SUSTAINED THROUGH SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MATURE UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE DAVIS MTNS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHEAST BEFORE ITS DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
THIS LOW AND STIPPLING OF CLOUDS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE INDICATE NO
SHORTAGE OF LIFT...BUT PRECIP CLOSER TO HOME HAS HAD TO OVERCOME
GREATER MOISTURE DEFICITS CENTERED AROUND 700MB WHICH CONTINUES TO
HINDER THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS. DESPITE
THIS CONCERN...APPROACH OF DEEPER ASCENT RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT IN YOAKUM COUNTY AT 230 PM POINTS TO A SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIP AFFECTING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN S PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST
TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR NIL STEERING FLOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
COULD DELIVER SOAKING RAINS TO SOME LOCALES...BUT AMOUNTS OF A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SHOULD BE THE RULE.

FOLLOWING THE PRECIP TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY
WHICH LOOKS TO MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AN
OTHERWISE MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. OPTED TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATES. HEIGHT FIELDS
AND THICKNESSES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
RIDGE. WITH CLEAR SKIES...WEAK WESTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT...WENT WITH MILDER MOS HIGH TEMPS FOR
MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIOD OF FORECAST WILL SPAN A VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
PATTERN FOR WEST TEXAS. MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI ZONAL
SOUTH OF 40 DEGREES LAT SUNDAY IN WAKE OF WAVE MOVING ACROSS SW
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ZIPPING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN DEEP SW TO W FLOW AND BREEZY SURFACE
WINDS...PARTICULARLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING WARM PATTERN AND WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...LIKELY BREAKING SOME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. RECORD HIGH FOR KLBB IS 84...WHICH IS A
LOW OUTLIER COMPARED WITH SURROUNDING DATES. RECORD HIGH AT KCDS
OF 92 WILL PROBABLY STAND...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE THREATENED AS
WELL. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH SUB 15 PERCENT RH AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT GRADIENTS LOOKS TO MAX OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. STILL MAY BE SOME
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TUESDAY ESPECIALLY EARLY...ALTHOUGH THESE
SHOULD BE MITIGATED OVERALL WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER RH VALUES.

THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION MID WEEK AS
SOME ENERGY DROPS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF NEAR BAJA BY LATE WEEK. COLD FRONT DUE SOME TIME ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK. GFS/ECM DO SUGGEST SOME
MOISTENING IN UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THURSDAY...WITH
ECM CONTINUING TO SUGGEST SOME RAIN SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN BLENDED
SMALL POPS/LIGHT PRECIP NEAR NM BORDER FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY SEE THOSE SMALL CHANCES CONTINUE TO FADE WITH LATER RUNS.
WEAK NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A NICE POSITIVE BOUNCE IN
TEMPERATURES...PROBABLY WARMER THAN CURRENT BLENDED SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  77  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         43  78  46  87 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     44  79  45  86 /  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     43  79  45  86 /  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       44  80  47  88 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   43  78  45  84 /  20   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    44  77  46  86 /  30   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     50  79  51  89 /  30   0   0   0
SPUR          48  78  51  88 /  80  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  78  53  88 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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