635
FXUS64 KLUB 250431
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF LOW
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. THESE SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START BETWEEN 6Z AND 10Z...FAVORING THE
EARLIER SIDE AT KLBB AND THE LATER SIDE AT KCDS. THE CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT/SCATTER BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THOUGH PROSPECTS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LINEAR MCS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS THAT WENT UNRESOLVED BY
MANY MODELS WAS LIKELY ENHANCING A BAND OF SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
FROM THE TRANS-PECOS NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS LACKLUSTER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THE
NEAREST ENHANCED CU AND CUMULONIMBI LOCATED FROM NEAR HASKELL/TX
NORTH TO MANGUM/OK UNDER A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BECAUSE OF
THIS...CHOSE TO REMOVE PRECIP MENTION OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR TSTRMS COULD SNEAK WESTWARD
WITH TIME IN SELY FLOW ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
STORMS CURRENTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AS BREEZY SELY WINDS PULL
RICHER DEWPOINTS NORTHWEST FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. UNFORTUNATELY...
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW LOOK LESS THAN IDEAL AS THE CONVECTIVELY-
INDUCED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
RESULTS IN EVEN BROADER SUBSIDENCE/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH MOISTURE REMAINING BACKED INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE
DRYLINE WILL BE ABSENT OVER THE REGION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BE IN SHORT SUPPLY. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
OUR IMPROVING LL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL CAPPING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TSTRMS PRACTICALLY ANYWHERE IN OUR DOMAIN. FOR
THIS REASON HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INTACT.
LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DRYLINE PUSHING EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PROVIDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
CHANCES MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS
POINT WOULD APPEAR TO BE AROUND WEDNESDAY WHEN A SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCE GIVES THE DRYLINE A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER EASTWARD PUSH
AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELL STORMS. THE
ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM
THAN THE GFS MODEL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 61 84 60 93 60 / 10 20 20 20 20
TULIA 61 83 60 92 64 / 10 20 20 10 20
PLAINVIEW 62 84 61 91 64 / 10 20 20 10 20
LEVELLAND 63 84 62 92 63 / 10 20 20 10 20
LUBBOCK 65 85 63 92 65 / 10 20 20 10 20
DENVER CITY 65 84 61 92 63 / 10 20 20 10 20
BROWNFIELD 63 85 62 92 63 / 10 20 20 10 20
CHILDRESS 65 87 66 93 68 / 20 20 20 10 10
SPUR 64 84 63 91 64 / 10 20 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 65 84 66 92 67 / 20 20 20 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/33/23
