Area Forecast Discussion
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320
FXUS64 KLUB 221036
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
436 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY THIS MORNING RATHER MILD CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA AS TEMPERATURES WERE SITTING ABOVE FREEZING...IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S AS OF 09Z. THE COLDER AIR WAS NOT TOO FAR AWAY THOUGH
AS TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WERE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND HAS RECENTLY CHANGED THE RAIN TO SNOW AT KDHT
AND KDUX. THIS COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOST/ALL OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY START
THE DAY ABOVE FREEZING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 20S AREA-WIDE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT AND WITH
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO TONIGHT.

OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND AS IS OFTEN THE CASE P-TYPE WILL BE
TRICKY WITH A NOTABLE ELEVATED WARM NOSE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MID-LEVEL
SATURATION DRAW INTO QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT ICE WILL BE INTRODUCED
INTO THE CLOUDS AT TIMES...WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
ALSO IN PLAY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THAT SAID...LOW CLOUDS WERE
ALREADY FILLING IN EARLY THIS MORNING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS
INCREASING. THIS LIFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
COULD SUPPORT A MODERATE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...THOUGH -FZDZ COULD
PERSIST...BUT BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER RIPPLE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

REGARDING P-TYPE...EARLY ON...IT WILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR RAIN AND/OR
DRIZZLE...BUT AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW OR FZDZ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH BY
15Z. THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS BY
MIDDAY. NORTH OF THIS LINE ANY RAIN OR DZ WILL SWITCH TO FZDZ OR
SLEET AS THE MODEST WARM NOSE ALOFT IS EXPECT TO BE IN PLACE. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE
SHOULD NOT BE AS PREVALENT AND SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY. THE RISK
OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...THE
WARM NOSE WILL KEEP A RISK OF SLEET OF SNOW IN THE PICTURE...WHILE
THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE THE WARM NOSE IS STRONGEST...WILL
EXPERIENCE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. A FROZEN MIX WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINATE
MODE WHEN THE STRONGER LIFT OCCURS. IN ADDITION...A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD BRING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT AS ONE
OR MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOP AND RACE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
THIS HAS BEEN OMITTED FROM THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF THE
DEEPER LIFT...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE
LOWER-LEVELS COULD COOL ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ICE AND PRODUCE FLURRIES
INSTEAD.

OVERALL...WE ARE FORECASTING AROUND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WHERE
THIS IS PRIMARILY SNOW...ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...1-3 INCHES
SHOULD BE COMMON BY THE END OF THE EVENT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE
SNOW/SLEET TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. ALL SAID...THE AREA-WIDE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
VALID...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY LOCALIZED BANDING OF
HEAVIER FROZEN PRECIPITATION...AS THIS COULD PUSH AMOUNTS INTO
WARNING TERRITORY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES /AND ONSET OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION/...WE HAVE CHOSEN TO
STEP UP THE START TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WITH THE
NORTHERN TWO ROWS BEGINNING AFTER 15Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z. THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY BE DELAYED A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER THE START TIME AS THE GROUND REMAINS WARM...BUT THIS
SHOULD CHANGE AS THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE
DAY.

.LONG TERM...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL BE IMPETUS FOR
CONTINUING PRECIP MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIFT AND PRECIP
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. ACTUALLY...ANOTHER
JET STREAK WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RENEW SOME
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...BUT FORECAST X-SECTIONS SHOW PRONOUNCED MID-
LEVEL DRYING WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE TREND OF DIMINISHING PRECIP.
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AND HIGHS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE PRECIP MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SRN ROLLING PLAINS. SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE IS INDICATED ACROSS
THE SRN ZONES EARLY MONDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CONVINCE US TO ADD
THUNDER. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY...AS
GUIDANCE RANGES FROM JUST VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TO SEVERAL
INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SRN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SOUTH
PLAINS. WE/VE TRENDED SOMEWHAT ON THE LOWER END OF ACCUMULATIONS
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SLEET...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO
NORTH TX MONDAY NIGHT WITH OUR LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S. TUESDAY WILL BRING THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW SPINNING
ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN
PLAY...SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHT PRECIP. BLENDED GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE AREA DRY AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MISSING...SO WE/LL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS
ONLY MODERATING INTO THE 40S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET WITH WEAK
RIDGING AND WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S.
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SURGE OF POLAR AIR
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. ALOFT...A COUPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION
PRECEDING A MORE POTENT TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. LIFT FROM THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WRING OUT SOME
PRECIP FROM THE VERY MODEST MOISTURE IN PLACE..AND ANY MOISTURE
THEY BRING WITH THEM. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...BUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE THE BEST TIME FRAME. TEMPS GENERALLY
APPEAR COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE...BUT
OF COURSE THIS FAR OUT IT IS A LITTLE TO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  14  25  17 /  60  70  50  10
TULIA         32  15  23  16 /  70  70  60  10
PLAINVIEW     35  16  23  19 /  60  70  60  10
LEVELLAND     36  17  27  20 /  60  70  60  10
LUBBOCK       36  17  26  20 /  60  70  60  10
DENVER CITY   38  19  27  21 /  60  70  50  10
BROWNFIELD    38  19  27  21 /  70  70  50  10
CHILDRESS     35  17  24  18 /  50  70  70  10
SPUR          37  18  24  19 /  70  70  70  10
ASPERMONT     38  20  26  21 /  80  70  70  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ033>044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR TXZ021>032.

&&

$$

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