Area Forecast Discussion
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595
FXUS64 KLUB 290538
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A WARM AND BREEZY LATE NOVEMBER DAY IS IN PROGRESS WITH 20Z
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S MIXING IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER THERMALLY DRIVEN MIXING...BUT A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF A 30+ KT LLJ SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE WINDS UP SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. THE WARM DAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY
MODEST BREEZES OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS BY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ON THE CAPROCK TO MID TO
UPPER 40S JUST OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE LATE NIGHT WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT ARE MAXIMIZED. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WILL FOLLOW
TOMORROW AS SURFACE LEE TROUGHING KEEPS DOWNSLOPE BREEZES BLOWING.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL AGAIN TOP OUT SOME 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AND RECORD HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED. AS A POINT OF
REFERENCE...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE AS
FOLLOWS:

                TODAY (FRI 11/28)    TOMORROW (SAT 11/29)
LUBBOCK          83 SET IN 1949        78 SET IN 2012
CHILDRESS        85 SET IN 1949        81 SET IN 1893

LONG TERM...

A GENERALLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR WEST
TEXAS...PUNCTUATED BY A BRIEF BUT SHARP COOLDOWN MONDAY FOLLOWING A
BREEZY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

BY SATURDAY EVENING...BROAD AND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND LIKELY WILL NOT REACH THE SOUTH AND ROLLING
PLAINS UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BREEZY
WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY
PREVENT WIND SPEEDS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.  STILL...DEEPER
MIXING INTO A NARROW RIBBON OF 25-30KT MIDLEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH
A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. AFTER SUNSET...THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY RACE SOUTHWARD...BRINGING WITH IT
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 15-25 MPH...AND TEMPERATURES THAT
MAY NOT CLIMB FOR OUT OF THE UPPER 30S ON MONDAY. THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...BUT OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE CLOUDIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
THIS WOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AS WELL...SO THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW
FORECASTS.

BY TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING TROUGH...AND QUICK PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MERCIFUL RECOVERY FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES
MONDAY TO BACK AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY.  FROM THIS POINT UNTIL THE END
OF THE WEEK THERE IS LITTLE WORTH MENTIONING...AS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME NEITHER DAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY
THREATENING.

FIRE WEATHER...

WARM /HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE/...DRY /RH VALUES DIPPING TO
8 TO 15 PERCENT/ AND BREEZY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WHERE
RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND AN FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE...TEMPERATURES FALL AND RH VALUES RISE AROUND SUNSET
BRINGING AN END TO ANY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A SIMILAR DAY WILL
UNFOLD AGAIN TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
LIKELY AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY AGAIN NEED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  79  41  72  17 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         38  78  41  72  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  77  41  73  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     37  77  40  73  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       41  76  40  74  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   37  75  39  73  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    36  76  38  73  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     37  80  43  73  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          43  74  42  74  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  74  45  74  29 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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